地理科学进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 426-434.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.04.005

• 碳排放研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

郑汴都市区产业CO2排放演变机理及脱钩分析

张丽君, 秦耀辰, 张金萍, 张艳   

  1. 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心/环境与规划学院,开封 475004
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-01 修回日期:2011-10-01 出版日期:2012-04-25 发布日期:2012-04-25
  • 通讯作者: 秦耀辰,教授,博士生导师.E-mail: qinyc@henu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41171438);国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955800);国家教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(10JJDZONGHE015).

Evolution Mechanisms of Industrial CO2 Emissions and Its Decoupling Analysis in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng Metropolitan Area

ZHANG Lijun, QIN Yaochen, ZHANG Jinping, ZHANG Yan   

  1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development/College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
  • Received:2011-08-01 Revised:2011-10-01 Online:2012-04-25 Published:2012-04-25

摘要: 探索都市区产业CO2排放变化的驱动机制,因地制宜地制定减排政策,对低碳城市与经济发展具有重要意义.本文将都市区的CO2排放源分成农业、工业、建筑业、交通运输业、商业和居民等6 个部门的能源消费,并将工业CO2排放进一步细分为34 种产业的能源消费.基于2000-2009 年能源消费数据,构建CO2测算模型,核算了各部门各产业范畴1(仅指能源燃烧)与范畴2 的CO2排放.运用LMDI方法对2000-2009 年间不同层级产业的CO2排放变化机理进行研究,采用脱钩指数分析郑汴都市区产业低碳发展的类型与方向.结果发现:CO2排放结构的变化呈现不同的阶段性、部门性和区域性特征;CO2排放变化是在强度(技术)效应、结构效应与规模效应共同作用下发生的,经济规模与要素投入的外生经济增长方式是CO2排放变化主要的正向驱动因素,碳排放强度和劳动密集程度是主要的负向驱动因素,劳动生产率与产业结构的变动则起双向作用,而影响居民消费CO2排放的各因素贡献相对较小;CO2排放与经济发展的脱钩状态决定了产业调整升级的方向与程度;产业结构调整对CO2排放的贡献及脱钩程度的确定需要进一步探讨.

关键词: LMDI分析, 产业CO2碳排放, 低碳城市与经济, 脱钩指数, 郑汴都市区

Abstract: The conflict between the great demand of energy in the process of rapid urbanization and industrialization and the CO2-abate pressure under the condition of global warming has become one of the most prominent foci in man-land territorial system. Exploring evolution mechanisms of industrial CO2 emissions in Zhengzhou- Kaifeng metropolitan area and taking appropriate measures are significant for the theoretical and practical development of low-carbon city and low-carbon economy. Sources of CO2 emissions from metropolitan areas are divided into six categories, consisting of agricultural, industrial, commercial and residential energy consumption, as well as construction and transportation energy consumption. Industrial CO2 emissions are further subdivided into 34 kinds of industrial energy consumption. Based on the 2000-2009 Energy consumption data, a CO2 estimation model to account for CO2 emissions in scope 1 (only refer to energy combustion) and scope 2 was constructed in this paper. Evolution mechanisms of CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2009 of six units and 34 kinds of industries were also researched by using LMDI methods. The low-carbon types and low-carbon directions of industrial development are analyzed by decoupling the index in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area. The conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) The changes of CO2 emissions show different sectoral and regional characteristics in various stages, due to the adjustment to CO2 emissions structure. (2) The changes of CO2 emissions took place in the interaction of factors including intensity (technical) effects, structural effects and scale effects of economies. The main reasons for CO2 emissions increase are the rapid growth of economies of scale and the exogenous pattern of economic development by inputting factors. The residential sector has less contribution than production sectors to CO2 emissions, while the gap is gradually narrowing. (3) The decoupling between CO2 emissions and the economic development determines the direction and the degree of industrial restructuring and upgrading. (4) Further studies should be conducted on the contribution of industrial restructuring to CO2 emissions and the degree of decoupling.

Key words: decoupling index, industrial carbon emissions, LMDI analysis, low-carbon city and economy, Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area