地理科学进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 361-367.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.03.012

• 自然灾害风险评估 • 上一篇    下一篇

洪涝灾害风险监测预警评估综述

廖永丰1, 聂承静2,3, 杨林生2, 李海蓉2   

  1. 1. 民政部国家减灾中心, 北京 100053;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    3. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2011-10-01 修回日期:2012-02-01 出版日期:2012-03-25 发布日期:2012-03-25
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q03-01);国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAK50B05, 2006BAD20B04)。

An Overview of the Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster

LIAO Yongfeng1, NIE Chengjing2,3, YANG Linsheng2, Li Hairong2   

  1. 1. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Beijing 100053, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Graduate University of CAS, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2011-10-01 Revised:2012-02-01 Online:2012-03-25 Published:2012-03-25

摘要: 随着全球气候变暖,洪涝灾害愈加频繁,灾害风险监测预警评估作为防灾减灾的重要基础成为当前灾害学研究的核心内容之一。本文在总结国内外灾害研究和应用的基础上,阐述了洪涝灾害风险监测预警评估的概念、 内容、评估的基本思路和监测预警的技术方法。本文提出:①应结合中国实际,加强洪涝灾害的基础研究,深入机理层面探索洪涝灾害的孕育、发生机制,以及减少洪涝危险性和承灾体脆弱性分析的不确定性。②以研究技术手段的进步促进洪涝灾害风险监测预警评估的发展,改进传感器性能,提高监测精度;综合多源遥感和各种基础数据;进一步发展“3S”集成技术。

关键词: 风险, 洪涝灾害, 监测预警, 评估, 综述

Abstract: Along with the global warming, flood disasters occur more frequently. Monitoring, early warning and assessment for disaster risk are an important way to reduce disaster losses. So it is one of the core issues in the current disaster research. On the basis of the analysis of the disaster risk, this paper described the concept, the content of warning and assessment, and ways of assessment and methods of flood disaster warning in China. This paper argued that in order to reduce flood hazard and the uncertainty of vulnerability analysis, we should explore the mechanism of flood disaster. In addition, monitoring technology was so important for risk assessment that we should improve sensor performance to increase accuracy; integrate multi-source remote sensing data; develop the "3S" integrated technology.

Key words: assessment, flood disaster, monitoring and warning, risk