地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2012, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 267-274.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.03.001

• 气候变化 •    下一篇

全球平均气温未来情景的降尺度分析

范泽孟1, 岳天祥1, 陈传法2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室，北京 100101;
    2. 山东科技大学测绘科学与工程学院, 青岛 266510
  • 收稿日期:2011-10-01 修回日期:2012-02-01 出版日期:2012-03-25 发布日期:2012-03-25
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(40801150)；国家杰出青年科学基金项目(40825003)；国家重点基础研究发展计划 (973 计划)项目( 2009CB421105, 2010CB950904)；资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室青年人才培养基金项目。

Downscaling of Global Mean Annual Temperature under Different Scenairos

FAN Zemeng1, YUE Tanxiang1, CHEN Chuanfa2   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Geomatics College, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266510, China
  • Received:2011-10-01 Revised:2012-02-01 Online:2012-03-25 Published:2012-03-25

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摘要： 如何提高全球气候模拟数据的分辨率，以满足全球、区域乃至局地陆地生态系统全球变化响应的定量分析，是当今全球气候变化研究的核心内容之一。在全球尺度上，本文利用全球气象观测站点的气候数据和DEM 数据，对全球年平均气温与纬度和海拔高程之间相关性进行回归分析，建立全球气候降尺度空间模拟的统计转移函数，并与高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法进行集成，从而实现IPCC GCM HadCM3 的模拟数据从3.75° × 2.5°到 0.125° × 0.125°的降尺度处理。研究结果表明，在3 种气候情景的T1-T4 时段内，格陵兰岛平均气温在0℃以下的区域和南极洲平均气温在-35℃以下的区域均呈逐渐缩减趋势，赤道至南北回归线之间的平均气温大于40℃以上的区域呈逐渐增加趋势。其中，A1Fi 情景的平均气温上升速度最快，A2 情景次之，B2 情景的平均气温上升速度最慢。构建降尺度方法有效地将IPCC GCMs的粗分辨率的气候情景数据降尺度转换成高分辨率的气候数据，并克服和弥补了目前IPCC GCMs的模拟数据因分辨率低而不能对区域乃至局地气候变化的细节及趋势进行刻画的缺陷。

关键词: HASM方法, 降尺度, 全球平均气温, 未来情景

Abstract: One of the key issues of global change research is how to improve the simulated data resolution of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the quantitative analysis of terrestrial ecosystems in response to the climate change at global, regional and local levels. In this paper, the statistcial transfer funcitons are developed by establishing the regression analysis of relation between mean annual temperature and latitude and elevation with the digital elevation models and climate data from global meteorological stations aton global level. The High Accuracy Surface Modelling (HASM) method integrated the statistical transfer functions, is used to downscale the simulated data of HadCM3 from a spatial resolution of 3.75° × 2.5° to 0.125° × 0.125°. The simualted results of A1Fi, A2 and B2 scenarios show that the mean annual temperature would be increasing in the 21st century, the areas in Greenland where the mean annual temperature is below 0℃ and in Antarctica below -35℃ would shrink, and the areas between north and south tropics where the mean annual temperature is higher than 40℃ would expand. The increase rate under scenario A1Fi is the highest and that under scenario B2 is slowest among three scenarios during the period from T1 to T4. The results also show that the coarse resolution data of IPCC GCMs can be availably downscaled to high resolution data by integrating the statistcial transfer funcitons and HASM methods, which could overcome the limitation that the current simulated data resolution of IPCC GCMs can not be used to explain and describe the details of climate change at regional level, especially at local level.

Key words: downscaling, global mean annual temperature, HASM Method, scenarios