地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 615-620.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.05.014

• 土地利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

西北干旱区耕地扩张原因的实证分析

朱会义1, 李义1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2011-01-01 修回日期:2011-04-01 出版日期:2011-05-25 发布日期:2011-05-25
  • 作者简介:朱会义(1966-),男,博士,副研究员,主要从事土地利用变化研究。E-mail: zhuhy@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究计划项目(2009CB421307)。

An Empirical Analysis of the Causes of Farmland Expansion in Northwest China

ZHU Huiyi1, LI Yi1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2011-01-01 Revised:2011-04-01 Online:2011-05-25 Published:2011-05-25

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摘要： 近10 余年来,在全国耕地面积持续减少的背景下,西北干旱区的耕地面积却明显增加。区域耕地的这一逆向变化,不仅改变了中国的耕地分布格局,同时也加剧了西北干旱区的水资源冲突和荒漠化进程。现有研究中,西北干旱区的耕地扩张往往被理解为区域人口增长、技术进步、政策激励的结果,但这些认识主要来自于统计相关分析和经验判断,还缺乏必要的实证研究。本文以西北干旱区的核心区——新疆维吾尔族自治区为典型区,利用统计资料和调查数据,对现有认识进行实证分析。结果表明,农业技术进步和政策激励确实对区域耕地扩张产生了明显的影响,而区域人口增长导致食物需求上升则并非区耕地扩张的主要原因。区域耕地扩张的主要原因在于棉花等具有比较效益的农产品生产规模的扩大,而具有比较效益的农产品生产规模扩大则是农业经营主体追求规模效益的结果。

关键词: 技术进步, 人口增长, 土地利用变化, 西北干旱区, 新疆, 政策激励

Abstract: In the past decade, farmland expanded remarkably in many regions in the arid Northwest China. These changes occurred in the context of rapid loss of farmland and exacerbated degradation of local environments in China. Therefore, better understanding their causes is helpful for understanding land use changes in China and crucial for developing effective conservation and ecosystem management plans. In literature, it is suggested that local population growth, technological progress in agriculture, and policy prompting are the main causes. However, these suggestions root in statistical correlation without further empirical research. In this paper, we took Xinjiang region as the sample, and evaluated the rationality of these suggestions based on changes in sown area. The results imply that technological progress in agriculture and policy prompting assuredly accelerate the expansion of farmland, as the sown areas of leading crops increase at higher rates in response to the adoption of technologies and policies. Meanwhile, the increasing need of food due to population growth does not consequentially cause the expansion of farmland, as the sown area of food plants decreases in the same period. From the results of sown area changes, the pursuing for scale benefit of crops with higher returns can be inferred as the main cause of farmland expansion.

Key words: farmland expansion, Northwest China, policy prompting, population growth, technological progress, Xinjiang