地理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 343-351.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.03.013

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

密云水库周边山区滑坡泥石流易发区预估

宋杨1,2,3, 程维明2, 柏延臣1, 万丛2, 申元村2, 蒋艳4, 刘海江5   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京100101;
    3. 中国煤炭地质总局航测遥感局,西安710054;
    4. 中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038;
    5. 中国环境监测总站,北京100012
  • 收稿日期:2010-10-01 修回日期:2011-01-01 出版日期:2011-03-25 发布日期:2011-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 程维明(1973-),主要从事数字地貌信息图谱研究。E-mail: chengwm@lreis.ac.cn E-mail:chengwm@lreis.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:宋杨(1978-),女,陕西省西安市人,工程师,在读硕士生,主要研究方向为数字地貌分析与制图。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40871177,40971063,50709033);国家863项目专题课题(2009AA12Z101);国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B01-5,2008BAK50B01-6);中国水科院科研专项(环集0903)。

Occurrence Probability Estimation of Landslides and Debris Flows in Mountainous Areas Surrounding the Miyun Reservoir

SONG Yang1,2,3, CHENGWeiming2, BO Yanchen1, WAN Cong2, SHEN Yuancun2, JIANG Yan4, LIU Haijian5   

  1. 1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;d:\PDF\.pdf
    2. State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System; Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Aerial Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Bureau, Xi'an 710054, China;
    4. China Institute ofWater Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
    5. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre, Beijing 100012, China
  • Received:2010-10-01 Revised:2011-01-01 Online:2011-03-25 Published:2011-03-25

摘要: 滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害的易发度主要是地质灾害自然属性特征的体现,它与孕灾环境的各项因子密切相关。这些因子包括地形地貌、流域水文、构造等内部条件因子以及地震、降雨等外部触发因子。为突出反映滑坡及泥石流主导因子的作用,本文参考了许多研究所采用的评价方法和因子选择,重点选取对该地区滑坡及泥石流发生区域分析评价起一定主导作用的、便于研究区域数据资料与空间资料匹配、关系密切的几个指标,包括地形地貌要素(坡度、坡向、坡形、相对高差、地貌类型)、环境要素(植被指数、河网密度、洪水淹没范围)、构造要素(距断层的距离、断层密度、地质岩性),通过对这些因子的敏感性进行分析,采用专家打分方法确定每种要素及因子的权重,借助因子加权叠加办法得出研究区地质灾害易发程度空间分布,用于表示其可能发生的统计意义上的可能性(概率),该研究对于区域地质灾害预防具有一定的适用价值。

关键词: 地形地貌, 构造, 滑坡, 环境, 密云水库, 泥石流, 易发区预估

Abstract: The occurrence of landslides and debris flows is a type of the natural geological disasters, and is closely related to many factors of hazard-formative environments. These factors include both internal conditional factors such as landform and hydrologic and tectonic conditions, and external conditional factors such as earthquakes and rainfall. To highlight the factors that have dominant role to cause debris flows and landslides, referring to the evaluation methods and factors selection in many investigations, this paper presents the regional analyses and evaluations on the factors which have determinative effects on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows based on regional spatial data. A weighting method is built based on experts' experience for all indicators to estimate the occurrence probability of landslides and debris flows. These indicators include landform factors (slope, aspect and slope-shape, relative height difference, and geomorphologic types), environmental factors (vegetation index, channel density and flood submerged area), and geological structural factors (fault distance and density and geological lithology). Based on the sensitivity analysis of these factors, the risk degrees of geological disasters can be obtained by means of multi-factor superposition, which represent the possibility of geological disaster on the statistical meaning (probability). The study is helpful to regional geological disaster prevention. In comparison with the location of the field-surveyed disaster sites with the forecasted disaster zones, it can be concluded that there is a good accordance between the distribution areas of landslide and debris flows and the estimated disaster zones. The geological hazards such as landslides and debris flows are mainly distributed in the 10 km buffer zone of faults, and most of them occur in the zones with the heights of 500-800 m and the slopes of 5°-25°.

Key words: debris flows, environmental factors, geological structural factors, landslide, Miyun Reservoir, occurrence probability estimation, terrain factors