地理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 27-34.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.01.003
喻鸥1, 阎建忠1,2
收稿日期:
2010-01-01
修回日期:
2010-07-01
出版日期:
2011-01-25
发布日期:
2011-01-25
通讯作者:
阎建忠, E-mail: yanjzswu@126.com
E-mail:Eyanjzswu@126.com
作者简介:
喻鸥(1986-), 女, 四川汶川人, 硕士研究生, 从事地理学综合研究。
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951704,2005CB42006);国家自然科学基金项目(40601006)。
YU Ou1, YAN Jianzhong1,2
Received:
2010-01-01
Revised:
2010-07-01
Online:
2011-01-25
Published:
2011-01-25
摘要: 区域脆弱性评估为脆弱性地区农户摆脱贫困、区域持续发展和政府制定适应策略提供科学依据。由于区域内部人地系统的复杂性,区域的脆弱性定量评估较为困难。中国脆弱性研究起步较晚,关注较早的是脆弱性区域的分布,但对区域内脆弱人群的脆弱性研究较少,认识上的不足影响了国家和地方政府制定科学的适应政策和措施。本文介绍了对脆弱性的认识,梳理了区域气候变化脆弱性评估方法,阐释了定性内涵、指标评估、以可持续生计框架为基础的脆弱性评估、基于地理信息系统的脆弱性评估等方法。针对中国的生态脆弱区,建议利用可持续生计框架构建指标体系,定量评估其脆弱性。
喻鸥, 阎建忠, 张镱锂. 区域气候变化脆弱性综合评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(1): 27-34.
YU Ou, YAN Jianzhong, ZHANG Yili. Reviews on Regional Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2011, 30(1): 27-34.
[1] Robert J N, Frank M J H, Marchand M. Increasing flood risks and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, 1999, 9(1): 69-87.[2] Dinar A, Mendelsohn R, Evenson R, et al. Measuring the Impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture. World Bank Technical Paper, 1998.[3] Agrawala S, Raksakulthai V, Larsen P, et al. Development and climate change in Nepal: Focus on water resources and hydropower. OECD working paper, 2003.[4] Eakin H, Luers A L. Assessing the vulnerability of social-environment systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2006, 31(1): 365-394.[5] Box E. Quantitative evaluation of global primary productivity models generated by computers//Lieth H, Wittaker R H. Primary Productivity of the Biosphere. New York: Springer-verlag, 1975: 265-283.[6] Cao M K, Prince S, Li K R, et al. Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China. Global Change Biology, 2003, 9(4): 536-546.[7] Ji J J, Yu L. A simulation study of coupled feedback mechanism between physical and biogeochemical processes at the surface. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1999, 23(4): 439-448.[8] Melillo J M, McGuire A D, Kicklighter D W, et al. Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production. Nature, 1993, 363: 234-240.[9] Neilson R P. Vegetation redistribution: A possible biosphere source of CO2 during climatic change. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 1993, 70(1-4): 659-673.[10] Patt A, Klein R J T. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 2005, 337(4): 411-424.[11] Prentice I C, Cramer W, Harrison S P, et al. A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography, 1992, 19(2): 117-134.[12] Running S W, Gower S T. FOREST-BGC, A general model of forest ecosystem processes for regional applications II. Dynamic carbon allocation and nitrogen budgets. Tree Physiology, 1991, 9(1/2): 147-160.[13] Uchijima Z, Seino H. Agroclimatic evaluation of net primary productivity of natural vegetations(1): Chikugo model for evaluating net primary productivity. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, 1985, 40(4): 343-352.[14] Woodward F I, Smith T M, Emanuel W R. A global land primary productivity and phytogeography model. Global Biochemical Cycles, 1995, 9(4): 471-490.[15] Wu S H, Yin Y H, Zhao H X, et al. Recognition of ecosystem response to climate change impact. Advance Climate Change Research, 2005, 1(3): 115-118.[16] 李鹤, 张平宇, 程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(2): 18-25.[17] Downing T E. Towards a Vulnerability Science? IHDP Newsletter Update, issue 3, 2000.[18] 刘小茜, 王仰麟, 彭建. 人地耦合系统脆弱性研究进展. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(8): 918-927.[19] IPCC. Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 3-26.[20] Fussel H M. Vulnerability: A generally application conceptual framework for climate change research. Global Environmental Change, 2007, 17(2): 155-167.[21] Ellis F. Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Development Countries. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000.[22] Bebbington A. Capitals and capabilities: A framework for analyzing peasant viability, rural livelihoods and poverty. World Development, 1999, 27(12): 2021-2044.[23] Carney D. Sustainable Livelihoods Approaches: Progress and Possibilities for Change. London: Department for International Development, 2002.[24] DIFD Issues. Sustainable Livelihoods-Building on Strengths. London: Department for International Development, 2002.[25] Chatterjee K, Huq S. A report on the inter-regional conference on adaptation to climate change. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2002, 7(4): 403-406.[26] Adger W N. Vulnerability. Global Environment Change, 2006, 16(3): 268-281.[27] Polsky C, Neff R, Yarnal B. Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerable scoping diagram. Global environment change, 2007, 17(3-4):472-485.[28] Sen A. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982.[29] Swift J. Why are rural people vulnerable to famine? IDS Bulletin, 1989, 20(2): 8-15.[30] Adger W N. Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Development, 1999, 27(2): 249-269.[31] Liverman D M. Drought impacts in Mexico: climate, agriculture, technology and land tenure in Sonora and Puebla. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 1990, 80(1): 49-72.[32] Luers A L, Lobell D B, Sklar L S, et al. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13(4): 255-267.[33] Calvo C, Dercon S. Measuring individual vulnerability. Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 2005.[34] Calvo C.Vulnerability to Multidimensional Poverty: Peru, 1998-2002. World Development, 2008, 36(6): 1011-1020.[35] Adger W N. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 268-281.[36] Foster J, Greer J, Thorbecke E. A class of decomposable poverty measures. Econometrica, 1984, 52(3): 761-766.[37] Berry P M, Rounsevell M D A, Harrison P A, et al. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation. Environmental Science &Policy, 2006, 9(2):189-204.[38] Patwardhan A, Sharma U. Improving the methodology for assessing natural hazard impacts. Global and Planetary Change, 2005, 47(2-4): 253-265.[39] Siegel P B. Using an Asset-based Approach to Identify Drivers of Sustainable Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction in Central America: A Conceptual Framework. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2005.[40] Twigg J. Sustainable Livelihoods and Vulnerability to Disasters. Disaster Management Working Paper, 2001.[41] Sharp K. Squaring the ''Q''s? methodological reflections on a study of destitution in Ethiopia. World Development, 2007, 35(2): 264-280.[42] Sharp K. Measuring destitution: Integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches in the analysis of survey data. IDS Working Paper, 2003.[43] 李小云, 董强, 饶小云, 等. 农户脆弱性分析方法及其本土化应用. 中国农村经济, 2007(4): 32-39.[44] Elasha B, Elhassan N, Ahmed H, et al. Sustainable livelihood approach for assessing community resilience to climate change: Case studies from Sudan. AIACC Working Paper, 2005.[45] Hahn M B, Riederer A M, Foster S O. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change: A case study in Mozambique. Global Environmental Change, 2009, 19(1):74-88.[46] 安迪, 许建初. 可持续生计框架:对云南的生物多样性保护与社区发展的针对性. 昆明: 云南省生物多样性和传统知识研究会(CBIK), 2003.[47] Cutter S L, Mitchell J T, Scott M S. Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: A case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2000, 90(4): 713-737.[48] 郝璐, 王静爱, 史培军, 等. 草地畜牧业雪灾脆弱性评价:以内蒙古自治区为例. 自然灾害学报, 2003, 12(2):51-57.[49] Metzger M J, Leemans R, Schroter D. A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2005, 7(4): 253-267.[50] 刘燕华. 中国自然灾害灾情指标及区域特征探讨. 中国减灾, 1994, 4(2): 29-34.[51] 刘燕华, 李钜章, 赵跃龙. 中国近期自然灾害程度的区域特征. 地理研究,1995, 14(3): 14-25.[52] 赵跃龙, 刘燕华. 中国脆弱生态环境类型划分及范围确定. 云南地理环境研究,1994, 6(2): 34-44.[53] 赵跃龙, 刘燕华. 中国脆弱生态环境分布及其与贫困的关系. 人文地理, 1996, 11(2): 1-7.[54] 刘燕华, 李秀彬. 脆弱生态环境与可持续发展. 北京: 商务印书馆出版, 2001.[55] 黄宗智. 中国农村的过密化与现代化: 规范认识危机及出路. 上海: 上海社会科学院出版社, 1992.[56] 阎建忠, 吴莹莹, 张镱锂, 等. 青藏高原东部样带农牧民生计的多样化. 地理学报, 2009, 64(2): 221-233.[57] 武艳娟, 李玉娥. 气候变化对生计影响的研究进展. 中国农业气象, 2009, 30(1): 8-13. |
[1] | 吴威,梁双波,曹有挥. 流域交通运输地理研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(8): 1136-1149. |
[2] | 施利锋,黄贤金. 中国大运河沿线城市扩张时空差异研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(8): 1206-1216. |
[3] | 年四锋,张捷,张宏磊,章锦河,张卉. 基于危机响应的旅游地社区参与研究——以汶川地震后大九寨环线区域为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(8): 1227-1239. |
[4] | 石晓雪, 龚道溢, 胡毅鸿. 1979—2017年冬半年京津冀区域大风的变化及其环流背景分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(7): 1069-1079. |
[5] | 王辉, 宋长春. 三江平原湿地区域生态风险评价研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(6): 872-882. |
[6] | 周玉科. 青藏高原植被NDVI对气候因子响应的格兰杰效应分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 718-730. |
[7] | 杨晴青, 杨新军, 高岩辉. 1980年以来黄土高原半干旱区乡村人居环境系统脆弱性时序演变——以陕西省佳县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 756-771. |
[8] | 方佳毅, 史培军. 全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(5): 625-636. |
[9] | 叶超, 尹梁明, 殷清眉, 徐建华. 地理学是一门脆弱的学科吗?——哈佛大学撤销地理系事件及其反思[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(3): 312-319. |
[10] | 李鲁奇, 马学广, 鹿宇. 飞地经济的空间生产与治理结构——基于国家空间重构视角[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(3): 346-356. |
[11] | 张会, 李铖, 程炯, 吴志峰, 吴艳艳. 基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 175-190. |
[12] | 赵彦茜, 肖登攀, 柏会子, 陶福禄. 中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 224-235. |
[13] | 崔丹, 吴昊, 吴殿廷. 京津冀协同治理的回顾与前瞻[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(1): 1-14. |
[14] | 苏黎馨, 冯长春. 京津冀区域协同治理与国外大都市区比较研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(1): 15-25. |
[15] | 萧凌波. 1736-1911年中国水灾多发区分布及空间迁移特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(4): 495-503. |
|