地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (11): 1326-1332.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.11.012

• 气候与水文过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

植被地理分布对气候变化的适应性研究

於琍1, 李克让2, 陶波2, 徐明2   

  1. 1. 国家气候中心, 北京100081;
    2. 中国气象局气候变化中心, 北京100081;
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-01 修回日期:2010-07-01 出版日期:2010-11-25 发布日期:2010-11-25
  • 作者简介:於琍(1976-)|女|博士|主要从事气候变化与生态系统过程研究
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806010)

Simulating and Assessing the Adaptability of Geographic Distribution of Vegetation to Climate Change in China

YU Li1, LI Kerang2, TAO Bo2, XU Ming2   

  1. 1. Center on Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China
  • Received:2010-01-01 Revised:2010-07-01 Online:2010-11-25 Published:2010-11-25

PDF (PC)

赞

被引次数

81 | 17

摘要：

开展气候变化对植被生产力及分布格局影响的研究较多，但分析植被地理分布与气候条件之间适应关系的研究还不多见。本研究以气候与植被关系为基础，采用植被对气候变化响应的时滞性，模拟不同植被类型对气候变化的动态响应过程，以当前气候条件和未来气候变化情景下植被地理分布实际发生和潜在的转变情况来定量表达植被地理分布与气候条件间的适应关系，评价植被地理分布对气候变化的适应性。结果表明，当前气候条件下(1961—1990 年)，中国植被对气候变化适应性总体较好，适应性较差的地方主要为森林—灌丛和草地—荒漠的交界处，植被的地理分布已经有所改变，约占5%；在华东地区森林—灌丛过渡带、内蒙古地区的灌丛—草地过渡带以及青藏高原南部的草地生态系统等对气候的适应性也较差，约占35%，这些地区的植被有退化的倾向，植被的地理分布有可能会发生变化。中国植被对未来气候变化(IPCC-SRES-A2 情景2071-2100)的适应性总体较好，84%的植被变化表现为正向的变化，特别是在西北地区，未来气候条件将有所改善，这些地区的植被覆盖可能会有所提高。植被潜在的变化中约79%的植被可以适应未来的气候，但在青藏高原南部和内蒙古地区及西北的部分地区的草地生态系统对未来气候变化的适应性较差，有退化的倾向。

关键词: 模拟, 气候变化, 适应性, 植被地理分布, 中国

Abstract:

The adaptability of ecosystems to climate change is critical to the projection of future vegetation dynamics and ecosystem functions though it is less studied than the impact of climate change on ecosystems, such as productivity and pattern of vegetation. The time lags of vegetation response to climate change and the relationships between climate and vegetation were used in the current study to simulate the dynamic responses of vegetation to climate change. We used the change direction of vegetation shift to assess the adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change under the baseline climate condition and the future climate change scenarios, respectively. The results suggest that the vegetation without the capacity to adapt the contemporary climate are most distributed in the transition areas of ecosystems, and the vegetation type takes negative shifts in those areas. Such areas includes the transition zones between forests and shrublands, grasslands and deserts, and the percentage of those areas accounts for 5% of China mainland. Some of the ecosystems located in northern China with forest-shrubland ecotones, Inner Mongolia and eastern China with shurbland-grassland ecotones, and southern Tibetan Plateau with grassland ecosystems, accounting for about 35% of the total area, may not be very well adapted to the contemporary climate. The vegetation will probably degenerate. By the end of this century, most vegetation can adapt to the future climate based on the scenarios of IPCC-SRES-A2 in China. The future climate in northwestern China will be more favorable, and about 84% of vegetation shift will be positive change. Our results also indicate that vegetation in northwestern China is most likely to improve. As to potential change of vegetation by the end of this century, 79% of the vegetation will be likely to adapt to the climatic conditions, but some grassland ecosystems will be threatened by climate change, including those in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau, Inner Magnolia, and some areas in northwestern China.

Key words: adaptability, China, climate change, ecosystem model, geographic distribution of vegetation