地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 1100-1106.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.09.012

• 生态环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

青海省柴达尔一木里地区道路沿线多年冻土分布模拟

李静, 盛煌, 陈继, 吴吉春   

  1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室|兰州730000
  • 收稿日期:2009-07-01 修回日期:2010-03-01 出版日期:2010-09-25 发布日期:2010-09-25
  • 作者简介:李静(1979-)|女|山西长治人|助理研究员|主要从事多年冻土分布模型与制图研究.E-mail: li_jing9797@lzb.ac.cn.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(X40871040);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(X2007CB411502)

Modeling the Distribution of Permafrost along a Transportation Corridor from Cetar to Muri in Qinghai Province

LI Jing, SHENG Yu, CHEN Ji, WU Jichun   

  1. State Key Lahoratoiy of Frozen Soil Engineering, CAREERI, CAS, Lanzhon 730000, China
  • Received:2009-07-01 Revised:2010-03-01 Online:2010-09-25 Published:2010-09-25

摘要:

以青海省柴达尔一木里铁路、热水一江仓公路沿线两侧约10 km缓冲区为研究区域,以冻土钻孔实测数据为基础,定量分析和评价了经度、纬度、高程、太阳辐射、坡度、坡向、地面曲率等地形一候因子对沿线区域多年冻土分布的影响,建立了以经度、高程、坡度为自变量、多年冻土发生概率为因变量的Logisti。模型。借助于GIS软件和DEM数据,完成了道路沿线区域多年冻土分布概率图的绘制和多年冻土分布概率的特征分析。结果表明,极可能多年冻土(概率值为0.75~1)的分布面积为1983 km2,占整个研究区域面积的65 %;可能多年冻土(概率值为0.5-0.75;的分布区面积为192 km2,占研究区域面积的6%;季节冻土(概率值<0.5)的分布区面积为894 km2,占沿线区域面积的29%。

关键词: 柴达尔一木里地区, 道路沿线, 多年冻土, 分布模拟, 青海省

Abstract:

Taking the lOkm-wide buffer areas along the traffic lines, the Cetar-Muri Railway and the ReshuiJiangoang Road, in Qinghai province as the research areas, this paper studies the distribution patterns of permafrost in the buffer area. Boreholes, which were drilled in the fields and used to determine the existence of perfamost at the drilling points, were the data basis. Based on the 189 boreholes and DEM, effects of longitude, latitude, elevation, solar radiation, aspect,slope and curvature on the distribution of permafrost were evaluated quantitatively through the(orrelation analysis. The results indicated that the macro-scale factors of longitude, latitude, elevation and solar radiation were the major affecting factors. As the spatial scale decreused, slope was another important factor affeoting the distribution of perma frost Therefore, a logistio model, baking longitude, elevation and slope as independent variables, and the occurrenoe probability of permafrost as a dependant variable, was developed to simulate the distribution probability of permafrost in the buffer areas. The modeling results showed that the possible permafrost with probability values ranging from 0.75 to 1 was the major type, accpunting for 65% of the buffer area. The second largest distribution area was the seasonally frozen ground with probability values smaller than 0.5, accpunting for 29% of the buffer area. The third was the possible permafrost type with probability values of 0.5-0.75, accpunting for only 6% of the buffer area.

Key words: Cetar-Muli region, modeling distribution, permafrost, Qinghai province, traffic lines