地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (7): 778-788.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.07.002

• 生态环境与灾害管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

野火蔓延灾害风险评估研究进展

国志兴1,2,3, 钟兴春1,2,3, 方伟华1,2,3, 曹鑫1,2,3, 林伟4   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875|
    2. 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875|
    3. 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京 100875;
    4. 北京师范大学资源学院,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-01 修回日期:2010-05-01 出版日期:2010-07-25 发布日期:2010-07-25
  • 通讯作者: 方伟华(1973-),男,副教授,博士生导师。主要从事自然灾害风险模拟和风险管理研究。E-mail:fang@ires.cn. E-mail:fang@ires.cn
  • 作者简介:国志兴(1982-),男,博士研究生,主要从事自然灾害风险评估研究。E-mail:guozhixing@ires.cn.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40601002), 科技部国家十一五科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B03)。

The Research Advances of Wildfire Spreading and Wildfire Risk Assessment

GUO Zhixing1,2,3, ZHONG Xingchun1,2,3, FANG Weihua1,2,3, CAO Xin1,2,3, LIN Wei4   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology (Beijing Normal University), Beijing 100875, China|
    2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China|
    3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs &|Ministry of Education, the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100875, China|
    4. College of Resources Science &|Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2010-01-01 Revised:2010-05-01 Online:2010-07-25 Published:2010-07-25

摘要:

野火灾害对区域生态系统和全球气候系统造成了严重影响,野火灾害风险评估和火蔓延研究对防火、灭火具有重要意义。本文对国内外可燃物模型、可燃物类型图的制作方法,野火蔓延模型、蔓延的计算机模拟技术和火灾风险评估的最新研究状况和发展趋势进行了综述,并提出对野火灾害风险评价的理论框架。 综述分析表明:①基于遥感信息和地面调查数据,建立较完善的可燃物模型,为全球或区域火灾风险评估、火蔓延研究提供有效数据信息成为必然趋势;②利用地球空间信息技术,计算机技术和数学方法解决火灾模拟海量数据问题,实现火行为的实时、动态模拟仿真的监测系统和网络信息发布系统;③结合可燃物模型,蔓延模型评价火灾区域的脆弱性和致灾因子,利用“灾害风险评估”的理论和方法对野火灾害风险进行综合评估。④我国应建立集成化、实用化、多维化、标准化的野火蔓延的模型体系、决策支持系统和国家火险等级系统,为我国野火火灾的预测与防御提供科学依据。

关键词: 风险评估, 可燃物, 蔓延模型, 模拟技术, 野火

Abstract:

Wildfire disasters have brought serious impacts on regional ecosystem and global climate system. The researches onf wildfire risk assessment and fire spreading have positive effect on fire prevention. In this paper, the latest research status and trends of fuel type models, approaches of mapping fuel, wildfire spreading models, computer simulation techniques about wildfire spreading, and wildfire risk assessment were reviewed. Firstly, it is concluded that better fuel models should be developed to supply effective data for the research on regional or global fire risk assessment and fire spread, based on remote sensing information and situ data. Secondly, the geo-spatial information technology and computer technology give solutions to massive data calculation of fire simulation, to establish monitoring system and network information system of real-time, dynamic simulation on fire behavior. Thirdly, wildfire risk assessment is conducted based on disaster system theory, subsequent to the evaluation of hazard factors and vulnerability of burned regions by fuel models and spreading models. Fourthly, integrated, practical, multi-dimensional and standardized wildfire spreading model and decision support system as well as a national fire danger rating system, should be developed in China, to provide a scientific basis for wildfire disaster prevention.

Key words: fuel, risk assessment, simulation technique, spread model, wildfire