地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 609-618.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.05.014

• 区域经济与交通 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于投入产出的中日美产业关联结构演进比较

王德利1,2, 方创琳1, 高 璇3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100049;
    3. 东北师范大学,长春 130024
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-01 修回日期:2010-03-01 出版日期:2010-05-25 发布日期:2010-05-25
  • 通讯作者: 方创琳(1966-),男,甘肃庆阳人,研究员,博士生导师.近年来主要从事城市发展与城市规划等研究.E-mail: fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:王德利(1984-),男,博士生,主要从事区域经济、城市与区域规划等方面研究.E-mail: wangdl.08b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重大项目课题(2006BAJ05A06);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-YW-321-05).

Comparison on Evolution of Industrial Linkage Structure Based on Input-Output Table amomg China, Japan and the US

WANG Deli1,2, FANG Chuanglin1, GAO Xuan3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and National Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 00101,China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
  • Received:2009-08-01 Revised:2010-03-01 Online:2010-05-25 Published:2010-05-25

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摘要：

在钱纳里关于产业关联结构理论的基础上,基于投入产出分析方法,从相对比例角度,考察中日美经济发展进程中产业关联结构的演进轨迹,从具体产业层面揭示了三国产业关联结构变动的原因.发展了钱纳里关于宏观经济整体中间投入率及三次产业中间投入比例的演变理论,提出了宏观经济整体中间投入率的倒“V”型发展模式及三次产业投入比例在时间序列上的“雁型”发展曲线,推断中国正处于倒“V”型发展模式的上升阶段及“雁型”曲线的t1~t3阶段,确定中国未来产业调整重点为:①保持第一产业中间投入比例继续下降态势,加强第一产业技术发展水平,提高产业增加值率;②适度降低第二产业中间投入比例的增长速度,及时调整、优化产业结构,投入重点转向资金密集型及技术密集型产业,提高产业生产的附加值;③相应加强第三产业中间投入比例,较大幅度的提高其增长速度,调整经济投入结构,实现产业结构协调化与高度化、高增价值化的统一.

关键词: “雁型”曲线, 比较, 关联结构, 投入产出, 演进

Abstract:

On the basis of Chenery’s theory of industrial linkage structure and the input-output analysis method, and from perspective of relative proportions, this article studies the evolution of industrial linkage structure in the economic development of China, Japan and the US, and reveals the reasons of the change in industry linkage structure from the perspective of specific industry. It develops the theory of Chenery for rate of intermediate inputs in overall macro-economy and proportion of intermediate inputs in tertiary industries. This paper proposes the theory of inverted "V" type of intermediate inputs rates in macro-economy and "wild-type" curve progression in the proportion of three industries in time series. China is in the developing phase in the inverted "V"-type and t1~t3 stage in the “wild-type" development curve. Determining the focus of China’s industrial restructuring should be as follows: ① We should maintain the declining proportion of primary industry and continue to strengthen the technology level of it. It is time to raise the industry added value ratio. ② The growth rate of the proportion of intermediate inputs in secondary industry should be appropriately, making it more suitable for the national economy. Investments should be focused on the next stage of capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries and the added value of industrial production should be enhanced. ③ The proportion of intermediate inputs of tertiary industry should be strengthed appropriately to represent a substantial increase in its growth rate. The industrial structure should be adjusted to achieve the unanimous coordination, sophistication and high added value in industrial structure.

Key words: “wild-type", comparison, correlation structure, curve, evolution, input-output