全球环境变化下人-环境耦合系统的脆弱性研究综述

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.04.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球环境变化导致的冲击和压力已经成为社会与生态系统可持续发展的主要障碍,脆弱性分析作为可持续研究的主要分析工具之一引起了研究者的广泛关注.目前脆弱性研究还没有形成完善的理论体系、规范的评估程序和普遍适用的方法.本文在阅读了国内外脆弱性研究相关文献的基础上,从人-环境耦合系统的角度总结了脆弱性的概念框架,对不同研究背景下的脆弱性定义和三个组成要素进行了深入的分析,归纳了脆弱性研究的核心问题;梳理了脆弱性的起源、发展和现状,总结了人-环境耦合系统脆弱性研究中的热点问题和几个典型的脆弱性综合分析框架.由当前脆弱性的发展状况指出了未来脆弱性研究需要解决的问题:确定并有效表达系统脆弱性与多个压力间的因果关系、人-环境耦合系统的不确定性、脆弱性动力学机制问题和脆弱性与风险管理决策的信息互动关系.

关键词: 脆弱性, 分析框架, 全球环境变化, 人-环境耦合系统, 挑战

Abstract:

Perturbations and stresses induced by global environmental change due to human activities have been the primary hindrances to sustainability of coupled human-environment system. Vulnerability analysis serving as a principal tool for sustainable researches increasingly arrests research communities’ attentions and it has become the hotspot in researches of global environment change. So far there have no consummate theory for vulnerability research, normal evaluation procedure and genetic metrics. Based on collected literatures, the conceptual framework of vulnerability was summarized, and formulation and components of vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, on different research contexts were analyzed in depth as well as the core issues around vulnerability. From a perspective of human-environment system, traditions and states quo of vulnerability research were presented through summing up current hotspots, and assembling researches on hazard responding thresholds, relationships among three vulnerability components, qualitative measurement of vulnerability and multi-source-data integration for evaluating vulnerability. Three typical analytical frameworks in vulnerability studies, which are especially suitable for coupled human-environment system, are also discussed. The challenges for vulnerability research in the future are concluded to effectively illustrate the causal relationship between vulnerability and multiple stressors in the coupled human-environmental system, to solve uncertain issues of the system, to accurately delineate dynamical process and the interaction among the elements of the system in vulnerability evaluation and to improve the efficiency of the information flow between vulnerability evaluation and decision makers.

Key words: analytical framework, challenge, coupled human-environment system, global environmental change, vulnerability

陈萍,陈晓玲. 全球环境变化下人-环境耦合系统的脆弱性研究综述[J]. 地理科学进展, 2010, 29(4): 454-462.

CHEN Ping,CHEN Xiaoling. Summary on Research of Coupled Human-Environment System Vulnerability under Global Environmental Change[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2010, 29(4): 454-462.

参考文献

[1] 林冠慧, 吴佩瑛. 全球变迁下脆弱性与适应性研究方法与方法论的探讨. 全球变迁通讯, 2004(43): 33-38.

[2] Roberts M G, 杨国安. 可持续发展研究方法国际进展: 脆弱性分析方法与可持续生计方法比较. 地理科学进展, 2003, 22(1): 11-21.

[3] 方修琦, 殷培红. 弹性力、脆弱性和适应: IHDP三个核心概念综述. 地理科学进展, 2007, 26(5): 11-22.

[4] 刘燕华, 李秀彬. 脆弱生态环境与可持续发展. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2007.

[5] Roberts M G，Yang G A. The international progress of sustainable development research: A comparison of vulnerability analysis and the sustainable livelihoods approach. Progress in Geography, 2003, 22(1): 11-21.

[6] Adger W N. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16: 268-281.

[7] Berry P M, Rounsevell M D A, Harrison P A. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation. Environmental Science & Policy, 2006, 9(2): 189-204.

[8] Cannon T. Vulnerability Analysis and Disasters. London: Routledge, 2001.

[9] Janssen M A, Schoon M L, Ke W. Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 240-252.

[10] McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

[11] UNDP. Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development. United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis and Recovery, 2004.

[12] Turner II B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P A. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US, 2003, 100(14): 8074-8079.

[13] O'Brien K, Eriksen S, Schjolden A. What's in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change Research. CICERO Working Paper 2004: 04, CICERO, Oslo University Oslo, Norway, 2004.

[14] Smit B, Wandel J. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3):282-292.

[15] 陈迎. 适应问题研究的概念模型及其发展阶段. 气候变化研究进展, 2005, 1(3): 133-136.

[16] 刘婧, 史培军, 葛怡. 灾害恢复力研究进展综述. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(2): 211-218.

[17] Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I. At risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge, 1994.

[18] Bohle H G, Downing T E, Watts M J. Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity. Global Environmental Change, 1994, 4(1): 437-448.

[19] 阿玛蒂亚·森. 贫困与饥荒: 论权利与剥夺. 王宇, 王文玉, 译. 上海: 商务印书馆, 2001.

[20] 史培军. 三论灾害研究的理论与实践. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(8):1-9.

[21] 郭跃. 灾害易损性研究的回顾与展望. 灾害学, 2005, 20(4):92-96.

[22] Christensen L, Coughenour M B，Ellis J E，Chen Z Z. Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and climate change. Climate Change, 2004, 63(3): 351-356.

[23] Laurance W, Williamson B. Positive feedbacks among forest fragmentation, drought, and climate change in the Amazon: Synergistic effects in fragmented landscapes. Conservation Biology, 2001, 15(6): 1529-1535.

[24] Oyama M, Nobre C. A new climate-vegetation equilibrium state for tropical South America. Geophys Research, 2003, 30(23): 2199-2202.

[25] Eakin H, Luers A L. Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2006, 31: 365-394.

[26] Gallopin G C. Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3):293-303.

[27] Carpenter S R, Walker B H, Anderies J M. From metaphor to measurement: Resilience of what to what? Ecosystems, 2001, 4(8): 765-781.

[28] Luers A L. The surface of vulnerability: An analytical framework for examining environmental change. Global Environmental Change Part A, 2005, 15(3):214-223.

[29] Lusers A L, Lobell D B. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13(4): 255-267.

[30] Forte F, Strobl R O, Pennetta L. A methodology using GIS, aerial photos and remote sensing for loss estimation and flood vulnerability analysis in the Supersano-Ruffano-Nociglia Graben, Southern Italy. Environmental Geology, 2006, 50(3):581-594.

[31] 王瑞燕, 赵庚星, 姜曙千, 等. 基于遥感及突变理论的生态环境脆弱性时空演变. 应用生态学报, 2008, 19(8): 1782-1788.

[32] 胡宝清, 金姝兰, 曹少英, 等. 基于GIS技术的广西喀斯特生态环境脆弱性综合评价. 水土保持学报, 2004, 18(1): 103-107.

[33] 张红梅, 沙晋明. 基于RS与GIS的福州市生态环境脆弱性研究. 自然灾害学报, 2007, 16(2): 133-137.

[34] 黄方, 刘湘南, 张养贞. GIS支持下的吉林省西部生态环境脆弱态势评价研究. 地理科学, 2003, 23(1): 95-100.

[35] Villa F, McLeod H. Environmental vulnerability indicators for environmental planning and decision-making: Guidelines and applications. Environmental Management, 2002, 29(3):335-348.

[36] 杨彬云, 吴荣军, 郑有飞. 河北省农业旱灾脆弱性评价. 安徽农业科学，2008, 36(15): 6499-6502.

[37] O'Brien K, Leichenko R, Kelkar U. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: Climate change and globalization in India. Global Environmental Change, 2004, 14(4): 303-313.

[38] Kracauer Hartig E, Grozev O, Rosenzweig C. Climate change, agriculture and wetlands in eastern Europe: Vulnerability, adption and policy. Climatic Change, 1997, 36(1): 107-121.

[39] Vasquez-Leon M, West C T, Finan T J. A comparative assessment of climate vulnerability: Agriculture and ranching on both sides of the US-Mexico border. Global Environmental Change, 2003, 13(3): 159-173.

[40] 孙芳, 杨修, 林而达. 中国小麦对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究. 中国农业科学, 2005, 38(4): 692-696.

[41] Gao J, Nickum J E, Pan Y. An assessment of flood hazard vulnerability in the Dongting Lake region of China. Lake & Reservoirs: Research and Management, 2007,12(1): 27-34.

[42] Mimura N. Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change. Climate Research, 1999, 12: 137-142.

[43] Nicholls R J. Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: A case study of flooding. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 2002, 27(32): 1455-1466.

[44] 葛怡, 刘婧, 史培军. 家户水灾社会脆弱性的评估方法研究: 以长沙地区为例. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(6): 33-37.

[45] 刘振乾, 刘红玉, 吕宪国. 三江平原湿地生态脆弱性研究. 应用生态学报, 2001, 12(2): 241-244.

[46] 叶正伟, 朱国传, 陈良. 洪泽湖湿地生态脆弱性的理论与实践. 资源开发与市场, 2005, 21(5): 416-420.

[47] 张国防, 陈瑞炎, 曾建容. 闽江流域洪灾与生态环境脆弱性研究. 水土保持通报, 2000, 20(4): 51-55.

[48] Fang S, Xiu Y, Er-da L. Study on the sensitivity and vulnerability of wheat to climate change in China. Agricultural Sciences in China, 2005, 4(3): 175-180.

[49] Thomasa D S G, Twyman C. Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(2): 115-124.

[50] Paavola J, Adger W N. Fair adaptation to climate change. Ecological Economics, 2006, 56(4): 594-609.

[51] Vincent K. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale. Global Environmental Change, 2007, 17(1): 12-24.

[52] Adger W N, Arnell N W, Tompkins E L. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 2005, 15(2): 77-86.

[53] Metzger M J, Leemans R, Schroter D. A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 2005, 7(4): 253-267.

[54] Cutter S L. Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Progress in Human Geography, 1996, 20(4): 529-539.

[55] Cutter S L, Boruff B J, Shirley W L. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly, 2003, 84(1): 242-261.

[56] Turner II B L, Matson P A, McCarthy J J. Illustrating the coupled human–environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US, 2003, 100(14): 8080-8085.

[57] 商彦蕊. 农业旱灾缝隙与脆弱性评估及其相关关系的建立. 河北师范大学学报: 自然科学版, 1999, 23(3): 420-424.

[58] 付强, 刘仁涛, 盖兆梅. 几种地下水脆弱性评价方法之比较. 水土保持研究, 2008, 15(6): 46-52.

[59] 林冠慧, 张长义. 巨大灾害后的脆弱性：台湾集集地震后中部地区土地利用与覆盖变迁. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(2): 201－210.

[60] Kumpulainen S. Vulnerability concepts in hazard and risk assessment. Geological Survey of Finland, Spatial Paper, 2006, 42: 65-74.

[61] Patt A, Klein R J T, Vega-Leinert A. Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 2005, 337(4): 411-424.