地理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (4): 433-438.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2010.04.007

• 全球环境变化与风险评估 • 上一篇    下一篇

珠江三角洲地区风暴潮重现期及增水与环境要素的关系

李 阔1,2, 李国胜1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-01 修回日期:2010-01-01 出版日期:2010-04-24 发布日期:2010-04-24
  • 通讯作者: 李胜国(1963-),男,汉族,江苏常州人,研究员.主要从事海里相互作用过程遥感与GIS数值模式研究.E-mail:ligs@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:ligs@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:李阔(1982-),男,汉族,河北辛集人,博士研究生.主要从事自然灾害风险评估和风险管理研究.E-mail;hqlk2000@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD20B05)

Calculation of Return Period for Storm Surge in the Pearl River Delta Region

LI Kuo1,2, LI Guosheng1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101,China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100039, China
  • Received:2009-08-01 Revised:2010-01-01 Online:2010-04-24 Published:2010-04-24

摘要:

珠江三角洲地区是我国海岸中台风暴潮最严重的区域之一,受全球变暖和海平面上升影响,该地区风暴潮增水重现值将出现显著的变化.本文采用耿贝尔方法和皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布法,分别计算了珠江三角洲地区11个潮位站的最大增水值的重现期,并对计算结果进行了比较,绘制了风暴潮增水重现值分布曲线.结果表明大部分潮位站的耿贝尔分布曲线与经验频率点吻合程度较好,少数潮位站的皮尔逊 Ⅲ型分布曲线与经验频率点吻合程度较好,两种方法结合起来效果最佳;分析了该地区风暴潮重现期的基本特征;最后总结了风暴潮与台风路径、天文潮以及地形之间的关系.该计算结果将为政府规划设计部门决策提供参考,对风暴潮预报、海岸工程设计和估计风暴潮造成的损失提供科学依据.

关键词: 风暴潮, 耿贝尔分布, 皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布, 重现期, 珠江三角洲地区

Abstract:

The Pearl River Delta Region is one of the few regions in our country which are seriously threatened by storm surges. Affected by global warming and sea-level rise, the return period for storm surge in this area is obviously changing. According to Gumbel and Pearson Ⅲ, the return periods of 11 tide stations for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta Region are calculated separately and the results are compared. Gumbel and Pearson Ⅲ distribution curves of extreme storm surge are mapped. The results show that the Gumbel distribution curves in most tide stations agree better with the experience frequency dots than Pearson Ⅲ distribution curves, but the Pearson Ⅲ distribution curves in the other tide stations agree better with the experience frequency dots than the Gumbel distribution curves. It is the best way to integrate Gumbel and Pearson Ⅲ methods. We analyze the basic characteristics of the return periods for storm surge in this area. Finally, we summarize the relationship between storm surges and the typhoon path, astronomical tide and the terrain. All the calculated results would be useful for the planning and design department to make decisions. This research would provide a scientific basis for the government for storm surge prediction, coastal engineering design and estimation of disaster demage.

Key words: Gumbel distribution, Pearson Ⅲ distribution, return period, storm surge, the Pearl River Delta region