国际LUCC模型研究进展及趋势

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.05.017

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

LUCC模型有助于深刻理解土地利用系统动态。经过10多年的发展，LUCC模型在理论和实践方面有了很大发展，开发新一代LUCC模型成为了GLP的一项重要任务。在大量阅读分析国际上LUCC模型应用研究的基础上，基于土地利用变化与驱动力之间相互作用表征方法的差异，从认识论的角度出发，本文将LUCC模型概括为经验—统计模型、概念机理模型和综合模型，并分别对各类模型的概念、技术方法、应用以及存在的缺陷等进行了分析，发现各种模型均能够解决特定的LUCC问题，同时也存在着缺陷和局限性。目前，LUCC建模中仍存在着时空尺度和数据方面的问题，未来LUCC模型发展趋势主要表现在解决LUCC中多尺度问题，评价和解决空间领域效应和时间动态方面的问题，土地系统可持续性综合分析与建模等方面。

关键词: 土地利用/覆被变化；模型模拟；尺度

Abstract:

LUCC models are conducive to better understand the dynamics of land use system. LUCC models have advanced significantly both in theory and practice over the past decade, and developing new generation of LUCC models is considered as the main task of Global Land Project. From the perspective of epistemology, based on analyses of case studies on LUCC modeling and approaches to quantify the relationship between land use change and its driven forces, LUCC models fall into three categories: empirical-statistical models, concept mechanism models and integrated models, and then the concept, technique and method concerned, application, existing drawback of each type are analyzed. The conclusion is presented as follows. Each type can address specific issues in the field of LUCC, and meanwhile, has its own drawbacks and limits. (1) Empirical-statistical models, including exploratory data analysis, regression, Bayesian and training, attempt to identify explicitly the causes of land use change using multivariate analyses of possible exogenous contributions to gain empirically-derived rates of changes. However, the findings of links between land use change and its driving forces are not equal to causal relationships. Also, a model that fits well in a specific region or at one scale performs poorly out of that region or scale. (2) Concept mechanism models, in this paper embracing economic models and agent-based models, are mainly applied to simulate operation and evolution of a variety of processes based on a series of laws and theories. Although they are strongly deductive, deflects are evident in terms of their complexity and data. (3) Integrated models can be defined as combining elements of these different modeling techniques to seek for reasonable resolutions to specific issues. But the level of integration is not always high currently so that they cannot reflect the objectivity of research subject. At present, in terms of spatial/temporal scale and data, a variety of common issues still trouble LUCC modelers. The tendencies of future LUCC models mainly manifest themselves at the following aspects: dealing with multi-scale issues effectively; assessing and addressing problems in terms of spatial neighborhood effect and temporal dynamics; integrating analysis and modeling land sustainability.

Key words: land use and land cover change, model simulation, scale

朱利凯|蒙吉军. 国际LUCC模型研究进展及趋势[J]. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28(5): 782-790.

ZHU Likai, MENG Jijun. Advance in and Tendencies of Land Use and Cover Change Model[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2009, 28(5): 782-790.

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