关键词: 考古遗址；预测模型；沭河上游流域；山东莒县

Abstract:

Taking the upper reaches of the Shuhe River in Juxian County of Shandong Province as a case study, this paper analyses the spatial distribution and environmental characteristics of Dawenkou, Longshan and Yueshi cultural sites. Then a GIS-based logistic regression predictive model is built for the archaeological sites in the upper Shuhe River so that the quantitative relationships of the sites distribution with the altitudes and rivers distribution are identified. Results show that the archaeological sites in the upper Shuhe River were located in areas with lower elevation and slopes less than 3°, indicating that the sites were distributed in areas that were more suitable for local agricultural activities. In terms of the direction of the site selection, there was a more balanced distribution, with the west, southwest, east and southeast dominating the entire study area. The settlements in pre-historical periods were mainly located along the tributaries but far away from the mainstream so as to avoid flood disasters. With the elapse of time, the altitudes and slopes of the sites as well as their distances to the rivers tended to increase, which were related with the increased human ability to overcome environmental constraints.

Key words: archaeological sites, Juxian county of Shandong province, predictive model, the upper reaches of the Shuhe River