• 生态与环境变化 •

### 海平面上升的生态损失评估——以深圳市蛇口半岛为例

1. 1. 北京大学城市与环境学院|北京 |100871；
2. 北京大学深圳研究生院城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室|深圳 |518055
• 出版日期:2009-05-25 发布日期:2009-05-25
• 通讯作者: 王仰麟 E-mail:ylwang@urban.pku.edu.cn
• 作者简介:李猷(1986-)|男|北京人|硕士研究生。主要从事景观生态与土地利用的学习与研究。E-mail: sabonis_ren@163.com
• 基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目(40635028，40801066)；中国博士后科学基金项目(20070420001，200801017)

### Assessment of Loss of Ecosystem Service Value under Sea-level Rise: A Case Study of Shekou Peninsula in Shenzhen

LI You1, WANG Yanglin1, PENG Jian1, LIU Zhenhuan2, WU Jiansheng2

1. 1. College of Urban and Environment Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; |2. The Key Laboratory for
Environmental and Urban Sciences, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China
• Online:2009-05-25 Published:2009-05-25

Abstract:

Global warming is an important process which may profoundly influence the global ecosystem, and the corresponding sea-level rise may be one of the most concerns for its unpredictable disastrous risk, and so forth threatening the sustainable development of coastal zone. People living in coastal areas are faced with the dilemma between exploring the coastal land for economic development and shunning the risk of inundation caused by sea-level rise. The issue has brought up wider attention of scientists including ecologists, meteorologists and economists, and of local governments who aim to facilitate their strategy to deal with it. In this paper, we take Shekou Peninsula as a study site, a threatened-site by sea-level rise located on the southern part in Nanshan district of Shenzhen. We predict the relative sea-level rise in this area based upon the previous researches and estimate the following effects, including storm surge, land inundation and loss of ecosystem service value. According to the investigation, under the scenario of sea-level rise: (1) the occurrence of storm surges will be intensified. The relative sea-level rise in the study area could be 1m by 2100, and the recurrence period will be shortened from 100 years to less than 10 years. The tides of 50-years-once and 100-years-once will be 3m and 3.3m, which bring about a greater threat to the construction of urban facilities near the coast. (2) The land of coastal zone will be inundated. There will be nearly 4816.2 hm2 of land in the risk of being inundated, making up 16.6% of the study area. The main categories of the inundated areas are using as urban construction and marine cultivation, occupying nearly 60% and 30% of the whole inundated area respectively, and this may cause great economic benefit lost. (3) The reduction of ecosystem service value will get to 19665.5, 44729.2 and 50528.3 thousand yuan per year under different tide heights respectively of 1m, 3m and 3.3m, and the loss of ecological value per unit area may take up nearly 1% GDP of per unit area in Shenzhen (according to price in 2000).