关键词: 人口迁移；空间格局；模式；重力模型；长江三角洲

Abstract:

By employing revised gravity model and O-D matrix of the shortest passing time among cities, this paper simulates communication situation of migration nodes, estimates affiliations of attractive centers, and then constructs the hierarchies of migration gravity system. The results show that, in 2005, there are five 1st level migration attractive centers, including Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Wenzhou, two 2nd level attractive centers, which are Wuxi and Xuzhou, and nine 3rd level attractive centers, such as Lianyungang and Yangzhou. Consequently, the migration gravity system hierarchies are constructed based on the former attractive centers, which consist of five 1st level systems, seven 2nd level systems and 14 3rd level systems. Besides, the general mode of evolution of migration spatial structure is identified, which includes the following four processes : “single-core agglomeration”, “multi-core structure”, “mono-center system” and “multi-center network”. Furthermore, by the analysis of communicating scope, this paper points out that the layout of regional fast transportation system plays an important role in guiding and supporting migration spatial patterns. Finally, from the perspective of urban rail, local administrative barriers and the development of central cities, the corresponding suggestions are put forward for the different scales of planning in the Yangtze River Delta.

Key words: gravity model, pattern, population migration, spatial structure, Yangtze River Delta