地理科学进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 60-67.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.009

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对水文水资源影响的研究进展

张利平,陈小凤,赵志鹏,胡志芳   

  1. 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室武汉大学,武汉 430072
  • 收稿日期:2007-12-01 修回日期:2008-04-01 出版日期:2008-05-25 发布日期:2008-05-25
  • 作者简介:张利平(1971-),男,湖北黄冈人,博士,副教授,主要从事水文水资源与全球变化的研究.E- mail:zlpwhu@263.net
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(40675070,50379040),科技部公益研究项目(2005DBI3J101).

Progr ess in Study of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resour ces

ZHANG Liping, CHEN Xiaofeng, ZHAO Zhipeng, HU Zhifang   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072
  • Received:2007-12-01 Revised:2008-04-01 Online:2008-05-25 Published:2008-05-25

摘要:

气候变化成为21 世纪世界最重大的环境问题之一,愈来愈引起国际社会和各国政府的重视和关注。研究 气候变化对水文水资源的影响,对于理解和解决可能引起的与工业、农业、城市发展等经济领域密切相关的水文水 资源系统的规划管理、开发利用、运行管理、环境保护、生态平衡等问题具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文主要 从研究方法、气候变化情景的生成技术、与水文模型接口技术和水文模拟技术等几个方面综合概述了气候变化对 水文水资源的影响,同时提出存在的问题与展望。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候变化情景, 水文模拟, 水文模型接口技术, 水文水资源

Abstract:

Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental problems of the world in the 21st century, and it attracts more and more attention of international communities and governments. It has theoretical and realistic meanings to study the climate change's impacts on hydrology and water resources, so as to understand and solve some problems in hydrology and water resources, such as plan management, operation management, environmental protection, ecological balance and so on. And hydrology and water resource system has close relationship with industry, agriculture, city development and economic fields. This paper reviews the study of impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources at home and abroad, and then summarizes some study methods of analyzing the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, such as generation technology for climate change scenario, interface technology with hydrologic models, and hydrologic simulation. At last, it raises problems in study and puts forward some suggestions, including improving the precision of climate models and hydrologic models and searching for forecast methods that can be applied to basins of different scales.

Key words: climate change, climate change scenario, hydrologic model interface technology, hydrologic simulation, hydrology and water resources