地理科学进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 7-12.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2008.03.002

• 地质灾害研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

地貌灾害间接经济损失评估 ———以泥石流灾害为例

刘希林1,2, 赵源3   

  1. 1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院, 广州510275;
    2. 中山大学自然灾害研究中心, 广州510275;
    3. 四川省自然资源研究所, 成都610015
  • 收稿日期:2008-02-01 修回日期:2008-05-01 出版日期:2008-05-25 发布日期:2008-05-25
  • 作者简介:刘希林(1963-),男,教授,自然地理学专业.E- mail:liuxilin@mail.sysu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中山大学二期"985 工程"队伍建设项目(批准号:3171313)资助.

Estimation on Indir ect Economic Losses of Geomorphic Hazards ———Taking debr is flow as an example

LIU Xilin1,2, ZHAO Yuan3   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat- sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;
    2. Research Center of Natural Disasters, Sun Yat- sen University|Guangzhou 510275, China;
    3. Sichuan Institute of Natural Resources, Chengdu 610015, China
  • Received:2008-02-01 Revised:2008-05-01 Online:2008-05-25 Published:2008-05-25

摘要:

泥石流是地貌灾害的一种主要类型,泥石流灾害损失目前还无法准确统计,其一是因为对灾害损失的统 计还没有分灾种细化,往往是按大类例如地质灾害甚至是按总类自然灾害来统计;其二是因为灾害损失统计也即 灾情定量评估本身还存在一些科学技术问题尚未解决。灾害损失中的直接经济损失评估只是技术问题,而间接经 济损失评估不仅涉及到技术问题,更重要的是尚有一些科学问题仍未解决。因此,目前还没有一种普遍认同的灾害 间接经济损失评估方法。本文提出了两种方法,调查分析法:理论上可行,操作上困难,实际上只是一种设计方案; 比例系数法:操作上可行,经验成分多,仍然是一种比较粗略的方法。就目前灾害研究水平和防灾减灾实际需要来 考虑,比例系数法仍不失为一种有实用价值的灾害间接经济损失的评估方法。

关键词: 比例系数法, 地貌灾害, 间接经济损失, 泥石流

Abstract:

Debris flow is one of the geomorphic hazards. The economic losses caused by debris flows are not yet accounted precisely at present. One of causes is the statistics is not specified for each kind of disasters by different type of natural hazards; another cause is the problems of disaster loss statistics, i.e., quantitative disaster loss estimation have not been solved yet till now. Among the disaster losses, the direct economic loss estimation depends on technical method; while the indirect economic loss estimation depends not only technical supports but also scientific bases. Therefore, there is not acknowledged method for the quantitative estimation of indirect economic losses of disasters. The present paper proposes two estimation methods: one is survey analysis, and another is proportional coefficient. The former is feasible in theory but unfeasible in actuality, and is only a scheme; the latter is practicable but empirical, and is only a crude estimation. Considering the needs of disaster reduction and mitigation currently, the method of proportional coefficient for estimation of indirect economic losses of disasters is recommended.

Key words: geomorphic hazards, debris flow, indirect economic losses, proportional coefficient method