地理科学进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (5): 32-40.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2007.05.004

• 生态环境与全球变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展

赵庆良1,2, 许世远1, 王军1, 胡蓓蓓1, 叶明武1   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室, 上海200062|
    2. 河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封475001
  • 收稿日期:2007-05-01 修回日期:2007-07-01 出版日期:2007-09-25 发布日期:2007-09-25
  • 通讯作者: 许世远( 1938- ) , 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 长期从事地貌、沉积、城市自然地理、环境演变与可持续发 展研究, 发表论著100 余篇(部).E- mail: syxu@geo.ecnu.edu.en E-mail:syxu@geo.ecnu.edu.en
  • 作者简介:赵庆良(1976-), 男, 河南镇平人, 博士研究生, 讲师, 研究方向为自然地理、环境演变与可持续发 展, 已发表论文8 篇.E- mail: qingliangzhao@henu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40730526, 40571006, 70703010)资助.

A Review of Risk Assessment of Storm Surge on Coastal Cities

ZHAO Qingliang1,2, XU Shiyuan1, WANG Jun1, HU Beibei1, YE Mingwu1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of the Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China|
    2. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
  • Received:2007-05-01 Revised:2007-07-01 Online:2007-09-25 Published:2007-09-25

摘要:

联合国国际减灾十年计划提出应更加重视自然灾害所造成的风险及其相应的防灾预案。 经过十几年的发展, 风暴潮灾害风险评估逐渐形成了独特的研究领域。目前国内外风暴潮灾害风 险评估研究主要集中在对风暴潮数值预报、潮高估算和重现期研究, 危险性评估, 承灾体暴露性 和脆弱性评估, 灾害风险区划、灾情损失评估等, 对沿海城市的风暴潮灾害综合风险及其次生灾 害链风险的研究则较少。从自然、社会、经济、政策、文化和工程等多角度建立沿海城市风暴潮灾 害风险评估指标体系, 运用3S 技术对沿海城市的风暴潮进行综合灾害风险研究是当前风暴潮灾 害研究的重要方向。今后的研究重点应构建基于场景的风暴潮灾害风险评估方法体系和开发基 于风险的决策支持系统, 加强灾害撤退避难图编制研究, 建立持续的城市灾害风险管理体制以及 对防灾预案和灾情损失的定量化预评估等。

关键词: 风暴潮, 风险评估, 沿海城市

Abstract:

The United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) gives rise to an increasing level of attention to the risks posed by a range of natural hazards and the development of strategies by which to reduce those risks. After many years of development, risk assessment of storm surge becomes a distinctive study field and an important part of risk management of storm surge. At present, more focus has been put on the numerical prediction of storm surge, the estimation of the height of storm surge and return period, the assessment of the hazard impact and the exposure and the vulnerability of the hazard- affected bodies, the regionalization of the natural disaster risk and the assessment of disaster losses, instead of the study of the comprehensive risk assessment of storm surge in coastal cities and the consequential disaster chain. Forming a indicator system for the risk assessment on the point of nature, society, economy and so on and making a comprehensive storm surge risk research based on 3S are an important field of storm surge study. This paper points out that the future study should be to develop scenario- based methodologies for storm surge risk assessment and the auxiliary risk- based decision supporting systems, to enhance compilation of the map of retreat and to set up sustained disaster risk management system in metropolises. The quantitative assessment of disaster prevention programs and disaster losses should also be stressed.

Key words: coastal cities, risk assessment, storm surge