拉萨河流域近50 年来径流变化趋势分析

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2007.03.007

地理科学进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 58-67.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2007.03.007

拉萨河流域近50 年来径流变化趋势分析

蔺学东^1,2, 张镱锂², 姚治君², 巩同梁^3,4, 王宏⁵, 刘林山²

1. 中国科学院青藏高原研究所, 北京100085|
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101|
3. 西藏水利勘测设计研究院, 拉萨850000|
4. 清华大学水利工程学院, 北京100084|
5. 西藏水文水资源局, 拉萨850000

收稿日期:2007-03-01 修回日期:2007-05-01 出版日期:2007-05-25 发布日期:2007-05-25
通讯作者: 张镱锂( 1962- ) , 男, 吉林人, 研究员, 博士生导师.E- mail: zhangyl@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:蔺学东( 1982- )| 男, 山东东营人, 硕士生, 研究方向为自然地理学与水文学.
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2005CB422006)、国家自然科学基金项目(90202012, 40561002).

Trend Analysis of the Runoff Var iation in Lhasa River Basin in Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years

LIN Xuedong^1,2, ZHANG Yili², YAO Zhijun², GONG Tongliang^3,4, WANG Hong⁵, LIU Linshan²

1. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, CAS, Beijing 100085, China|
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China|
3. Tibet Hydroelectric Investigation, Designed Research Institute, Lhasa 850000, China|
4. School of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China|
5. Tibet Hydrographic and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Lhasa 850000, China

Received:2007-03-01 Revised:2007-05-01 Online:2007-05-25 Published:2007-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以拉萨水文站以上流域为研究区, 基于拉萨水文站和唐加水文站的水文实测数据和当雄县等3 个气象站的气候观测数据, 统计分析了1956~2003 年研究区径流的年内、年际变化, 利用 Mann- Kendall 趋势分析法和Pettitt 变点检验法分析了拉萨河流域径流的变化特征, 采用多元回归方法分析了气候因素( 气温、降水) 对径流变化的影响。结果表明: ( 1) 研究时段内, 径流年际变化波动较大, 在1970 年前后径流发生了较大的突变, 呈现出明显的增加趋势, 尤以近20 年来的趋势最大; 月均径流的年际变化中, 有增加趋势的主要分布在冬半年( 11～4 月) 和夏半年的个别月份( 5、7、9 月) ; ( 2) 流域内气候变化趋势与径流变化趋势基本一致, 但不同月/年均径流受不同气候因素影响, 主要表现在年平均尺度上受降水影响较大, 在月平均尺度上, 夏半年径流增加趋势受降水增加影响较大, 而冬半年径流变化则主要与气温有较显著相关性, 其主要原因可能是全球变暖导致冰川融水增加。

关键词: Mann- Kendall 趋势分析, Pettitt 变点检验, 多元回归, 径流变化趋势, 拉萨河流域

Abstract:

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan plateau as a study objective, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff in 1956- 2003 were analyzed, which were based on the hydro- data of the two hydrological stations (Lhasa and Tangga) and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations (Damxung, Lhasa and Tangga). The trends and the change - points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected by using the nonparametric Mann - Kendall test and Pettitt -Mann -Whitney change - point statistics. The correlations between the runoff and climate change were analyzed by using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) The annual mean runoff in 1956~2003 is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change- points (around 1970 and the early 1980s), after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides the annual mean runoff, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is in winter half year (from November to April) and summer half year (May, July and September). (2) The trends of the climate change in the study- area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter.

Key words: Lhasa River Basin, Mann- Kendall trend analysis, multiple linear regressions, Pettitt change- point test, trend of runoff variation

蔺学东, 张镱锂, 姚治君, 巩同梁, 王宏, 刘林山. 拉萨河流域近50 年来径流变化趋势分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2007, 26(3): 58-67.

LIN Xuedong, ZHANG Yili, YAO Zhijun, GONG Tongliang, WANG Hong, LIU Linshan. Trend Analysis of the Runoff Var iation in Lhasa River Basin in Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2007, 26(3): 58-67.

参考文献

[1] 郑度, 姚檀栋. 青藏高原隆升与环境效应. 北京:科学出版社,2004.

[2] 姚檀栋, 朱立平. 青藏高原环境变化对全球变化的响应及其适应对策. 地球科学进展, 2006,21(5):459~464.

[3] 莫申国, 张百平, 程维明等. 青藏高原的主要环境效应. 地理科学进展, 2004,23(02):88~96.

[4] 杜军. 西藏高原近40 年的气温变化. 地理学报, 2001,56(6):682~690.

[5] 林振耀, 赵昕奕. 青藏高原降水变化的空间特征. 中国科学(D 辑), 1996,26(4): 354~358.

[6] 吴绍洪, 尹云鹤, 郑度等. 青藏高原近30 年气候变化趋势. 地理学报,2005,60(1): 3~11.

[7] Wang Shaowu, Zhu Jinhong, Cai Jingning. Interdecadal Variability of Temperature and Precipitation in China since 1880. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2004,21(3): 307～313.

[8] 施雅风,刘时银. 中国冰川对21 世纪全球变暖响应的预估. 科学通报,2000,45(4): 434~438.

[9] 张镱锂,李秀彬,傅小锋等. 拉萨城市用地变化分析. 地理学报,2000,55(4): 396~406.

[10] 除多, 张镱锂, 郑度. 拉萨地区土地利用变化情景分析. 地理研究,2005,24(6): 869~877.

[11] 郑度, 林振耀, 张雪芹. 青藏高原与全球环境变化研究进展. 地学前缘,2002,9(1): 95~102.

[12] Klein J A, Harte J, Zhao X Q. Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau. Ecology Letters, 2004, 7(12): 1170~1179.

[13] 牛亚菲. 青藏高原生态环境研究. 地理科学进展,1999,(2):163~171.

[14] 曹建廷, 秦大河, 康尔泗等. 青藏高原外流区主要河流的径流变化. 科学通报,2005,50(21):2403~2408.

[15] 巩同梁, 刘昌明, 刘景时. 拉萨河冬季径流对气候变暖和冻土退化的响应. 地理学报,2006,61(5):519~526.

[16] 吴涛, 袁鹏, 戴露等. 西藏拉萨河径流预测方法研究. 水利科技与经济,2005,11(2): 77~79.

[17] 宁爱凤,尹观,刘天仇. 拉萨河地区的大气降水同位素分布特征. 矿物岩石,2000,20(3): 95~99.

[18] 胡书银,王建林. 西藏一江两河地区水资源及其开发利用. 国土与自然资源研究,1999, 2:16~18.

[19] 刘天仇. 雅鲁藏布江水文特征. 地理学报,1999,54(s): 157~164.

[20] 王建林. 雅鲁藏布江及其支流中部流域地区水文特性分析. 水土保持通报,1994,14(2):54~58.

[21] 米德生, 谢自楚, 罗祥瑞等. 中国冰川编目XI,恒河水系和印度河水系. 西安:西安地图出版社,2002, 1~572.

[22] 中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队. 西藏河流与湖泊. 北京:科学出版社,1984.

[23] 中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队. 西藏气候. 北京:科学出版社,1984.

[24] 董光荣,李森,董玉祥等. 西藏“一江两河”中部流域土地沙漠化防治规划研究. 北京:中国环境科学出版社,1996, 1~ 161.

[25] Mann H B. Non- parametric tests against trend. Econometric, 1945, 13: 245~259.

[26] Kendall MG. Rank Correlation Measures. London: Charles Griffin, 1975.

[27] Hirsch R M, Slack J R, Smith R A. Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resources Research, 1982, 18: 107~121.

[28] Donald H Burn, Mohamed A Hag Elnur. Detection of hydrologic trends and variability. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 55: 107~122.

[29] Omar I Abdul Aziz, Donald H Burn. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 319: 282~294.

[30] Sirois Allan. A brief and biased overview of time series analysis on how to find that evasive trend. In WMO Report No.133: WMO/EMEP Workshop on Advanced Statistical Methods and Their Application to Air Quality Datasets 1998.

[31] Pettitt A N. A Non- Parametric Approach to the Change- Point Problem. Applied Statistics, 1979, 28 (2):126~135.

[32] Pettitt A N. A simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change- point problem with zero- one observations. Biometrika 1980, 67: 79~84.

[33] Pettitt A N. Some results on estimating a change- point using nonparametric type statistics. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 1980b,11: 261~272.

[34] Rowan Fealy, John Sweeney. Detection of a Possible Change Point in Atmospheric Variability in the North Atlantic and Its Effect on Scandinavian Glacier Mass Balance. International Journal of Climatology, 2005, 25: 1819~1833.

[35] 符淙斌,王强. 气候突变的定义和检测方法. 大气科学,1992,16(4): 482~493.

[36] Perreault L, HachéM, Slivitzky M, Bobée B. Detection of changes in precipitation and runoff over eastern Canada and U.S. using a Bayesian approach, 1999, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA), 13(3): 201~216.

[37] Ye Duzheng, Yan Zhongwei. Climatic jumps in the history. Climatic Variability. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 1993,3~14.

[38] 严中伟, 季劲均,叶笃正. 60 年代北半球夏季气候跃变Ⅰ———降水和温度变化. 中国科学(B),1990,(1): 97~103.

[39] 汤懋仓, 白重瑗,冯松等. 本世纪青藏高原气候的三次突变及与天文因素的相关. 高原气象,1998,17(3):250~257.

[40] 赖祖铭. 气候变化对青藏高原大江河径流的影响. 冰川冻土,1996,18(s): 314~320.

[41] 杨续超, 张镱锂, 张玮等. 珠穆朗玛峰地区近34 年来气候变化. 地理学报,2006,61(7):687~696.

[42] 丁永建,叶佰生,刘时银. 祁连山中部地区40a 来气候变化及其对径流的影响. 冰川冻土,2000,22(3): 193~199.

[43] Calder. Land Use Impacts on Water Resources. Land-Water Linkages in Rural Watersheds Electronic Workshop, 18 Sept. ~27 Oct. FAO, 2000.

[44] Bosch J M, Hewlett J D. A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evaportranspiration. Journal of Hydrology, 1982, 55:3~23.

[45] 陈军锋, 李秀彬, 张明. 模型模拟梭磨河流域气候波动和土地覆被变化对流域水文的影响. 中国科学D 辑地球科学, 2004,34(7):668~674.

[46] 万荣荣, 杨桂山. 流域LUCC 水文效应研究中的若干问题探讨. 地理科学进展,2005,24(3):25~33.

拉萨河流域近50 年来径流变化趋势分析

Trend Analysis of the Runoff Var iation in Lhasa River Basin in Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 3

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	王子玉, 许端阳, 杨华, 丁雪, 李达净. 1981-2010年气候变化和人类活动对内蒙古地区植被动态影响的定量研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(8): 1025-1032.
[2]	郭禹含, 王中根, 伍玉良. 多源再分析降水数据在拉萨河流域应用对比研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(8): 1033-1039.
[3]	兰玉芳, 徐霞, 蒋力, 金东艳. 农牧交错区退耕前/后人口空间分布模拟及其演化特征——以太仆寺旗为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(11): 1681-1691.