地理科学进展 ›› 2005, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 1-10.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2005.01.001

• 全球一体化与区域发展 •    下一篇

全球贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响

黄季焜1,2, 杨 军1,2, Frank van Tongeren3, Hans van Meij3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院农业政策研究中心, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    3. 荷兰农业经济研究所, 荷兰海牙
  • 收稿日期:2004-12-01 修回日期:2005-01-01 出版日期:2005-01-25 发布日期:2005-01-25
  • 作者简介:黄季焜(1962-), 男, 福建人, 中国科学院农业政策研究中心主任、中科院地理科学与资源研究所研究员, 主要从事科技政策、农业和农村发展、国际贸易等研究。E-mail: lin.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    本项研究得到国家自然科学基金(70021001)、中国科学院(KZCX3-SW-419)和荷兰农业部的资助。

The Impacts of Global Trade Liberalization on China and World Economy

HUANG Jikun1,2, YANG Jun1,2, Frank van Tongeren3, Hans van Meijl3   

  1. 1. Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101;
    2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research;
    3. Agricultural Economics Research Institute, the Hague, the Netherlands
  • Received:2004-12-01 Revised:2005-01-01 Online:2005-01-25 Published:2005-01-25

摘要:

全球贸易自由化是当前和未来世界经济发展不可避免的趋势,2001年开始的多哈回合贸易自由化多边谈判和最近刚刚取消的“多种纤维协定”(MFA)将在全球贸易自由化进程中发挥重要的作用。本研究的目的是通过一些案例分析,揭示贸易自由化对中国和世界经济的影响。采用全球贸易模型,我们分析了MFA和在多哈回合初期欧盟、美国和凯恩斯集团分别提出的贸易自由化提案。研究结果表明,虽然取消MFA对一些国家纺织部门带来冲击,但它极大地促进了大多数国家经济的发展,改善了全球福利;多哈谈判过程中提出的各种贸易自由化提案都在不同程度上促进世界经济的发展,但其影响大小依次为凯恩斯提案、美国提案和欧盟提案;贸易自由化对经济的影响在不同部门和不同国家间存在显著差别;更大程度的贸易自由化不但符合全球共同利益,也符合中国国家利益;中国在推动全球贸易自由化过程中应发挥更积极和更大的作用。

关键词: 经济影响, 贸易分析模型, 贸易自由化, 全球, 中国

Abstract:

Economic globalization and trade liberalization have been developing smoothly and are expected to continue in the future. The Doha Round of trade negotiation and the recent phasing out of the Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) have stimulated the process of trade liberalization. The overall goal of this study is to examine the impacts on China and world economy of the recent phasing out of MFA and the proposals for trade liberalization provided by EU, USA and CAIRNS group. Based on a general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), this study shows that the world economy will gain more than US$ 10 billion from the phasing out of MFA, though the loss may present in a few countries. USA, EU, China and India are major gainers. The success of Doha Round negotiation will have much substantial effect on the global economy. World income will increase by about US$ 100 billion in 2010. China is one of major countries that gain most from the Doha Round of trade negotiation. Among the proposals examined, China gains more from CAIRNS and US proposals than from EU proposal. China should press for global trade liberalization as this is consistent with China’s national interests.

Key words: China, economic impacts, GTAP, trade liberalization, world