关键词: 河北省, 灰关联分析, 回归分析, 粮食, 双向差分建模

Abstract: The sown area of grain crops was 6484.4×10 3 hectares, in which the rate was 37.8% for wheat, 39.7% for maize, and the proportion among grain, cotton and oil crops was 15.9:1.0:1.6 in Hebei Province in 2002. The rate of the sown area of grain between the region and the province was 23.3% for the North Hebei Area, and 76.7% for the South Hebei Area in 2002. The ratio between the level in 2002 and in 1949 was 5.2 for the total yield of grain, which was 2435.8×10 4 tons in 2002; 5.8 for the per unit area yield of grain, which was 3756 kg per hectare in 2002; 2.4 for the per capita yield of grain, which was 362 kg in 2002. The rate of grain total yield between the region and the province was 17.2% for the North Hebei Area, and 82.8% for the South Hebei Area in 2002. According to the regression analysis and the bilateral difference modelling analysis, the grain yield in 2010 will be 3087.5×10 4 tons for the total yield, 4478 kg per hectare for the per unit area yield, and 460 kg for the per capita yield. On the basis of the gray relational analysis, the main factors affecting total yield of grain are: the per unit area yield, the general purchasing price index of farm produce and sideline products, the total power of agricultural machinery, the electricity consumed in rural area, the consumption of chemical fertilizer in farmland, and the effective irrigated area. According to our estimation, if the total power of agricultural machinery is 8989×10 4kw, the electricity is consumed 240.8×10 8kwh, the consumption of chemical fertilizer 356.1×10 4 tons, and the effective irrigated is area 4549.2×10 3 hectares in 2010, the per unit area yield of grain will be 4664 kg per hectare; if the rate of the sown area is 0.387 for wheat, and 0.439 for maize, the per unit area yield will be 4387 kg per hectare.

Key words: bilateral difference modelling, grain, gray relational analysis, Hebei Province, regression analysis