关键词: 灰色关联分析, 驱动力, 疏勒河流域, 土地荒漠化, 土地利用

Abstract: In north west arid areas in China, regional eco environment and economic const ruction are controlled and limited by the rationality of land use structure Ta king Anxi county in Gansu Province as an example, this paper analyzes the change s in main land use types including cultivated land, woodland, grassland, lands in desertification and their driving forces The results show that the land use change is controll ed basically by physical conditions, and significantly affected by human activit iesThe increase in cultivated land is directly related to rising in utilizati on ratio of water resources, and the increase in population is also one of the m ain causes for cultivated land augment The cultivated land decrease is mainly related to land des ertification caused by irrational human activities Although woodland change i s also limited by physical condition, the function of human factor is more impor tant than physical influences The cause of grassland decrease is ove rgrazing and the irrational human activities Based on data analysis, the metho d of grey incidence analysis is used to identify the most important driving fact ors influencing land desertification The results show that the most important influencing factor is overgrazing, then the population pressure and land reclama tion, while regional climate change is less important than factors of human acti vities.

Key words: driving factors, grey incidence analysis, land desertification, land use, Shule river