地理科学进展 ›› 2002, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 163-172.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2002.02.009

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

河南省耕地和粮食灰色关联分析

李茂   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2001-08-01 修回日期:2002-02-01 出版日期:2002-03-24 发布日期:2002-03-24
  • 作者简介:李茂(1972-),女,中科院地理科学与资源研究所博士研究生。主要从事土地资源利用方面研究。E-mail:lim@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(49971004);中科院地理科学与资源研究所创新项目(CXIOG-AOO-03-01)

Gray Incidence Analysis between Cultivated Area and Grain Yield and its Affecting Factors of Henan Province

LI Mao   

  1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS, Beijing 100101 China
  • Received:2001-08-01 Revised:2002-02-01 Online:2002-03-24 Published:2002-03-24

摘要: 收集整理 1 949~ 1 999年河南省耕地、人口、粮食和复种指数等资料 ,定量分析耕地的数量变化、质量状况和耕地减少的形式 ,用一元线性回归法预测人口变化趋势 ,对粮食生产与其影响因素进行灰色关联分析和相关分析 ,提出外延式和内涵式开发耕地资源增产粮食的途径 ,对粮食单产和耕地复种指数进行回归分析.

关键词: 耕地, 河南, 灰色关联分析, 回归分析, 粮食

Abstract: Cultivated area, population, and grain yield in Henan Province during the past 50 years are discussed in this paper based on statistical and survey data. It is found that (a) the general trend of net cultivated area loss started in 1955 which got continued; (b) the population in Henan Province will increase to 1×10 8 in 2005 and 1 06×10 8 in 2010; (c) total grain yield and grain yield per capital have increased in a fluctuant way since 1960; (d) grain yield per capital, effective irrigated area, and crop pattern have more effects on total grain yield based on gray incidence analysis and correlation analysis approach; and (e) multiple cropping index (MCI) of cultivated area in Henan Province is higher than national average standard, and the higher MCI, the more grain yield base on Regression analysis.

Key words: Cultivated area, Grain Yield, Gray incidence analysis, Henan Province, Regression analysis

中图分类号: 

  • F323