地理科学进展 ›› 2002, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 73-80.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2002.01.009

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国省际经济趋同的定量分析

罗仁福, 李小建, 覃成林   

  1. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封475001
  • 收稿日期:2001-10-01 修回日期:2001-12-01 出版日期:2002-01-24 发布日期:2002-01-24
  • 作者简介:罗仁福(1972-)男,江西乐安人,河南大学环境规划学院区域经济学硕士研究生。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(49971024,40171025);国家教育部人文社会科学规划项目阶段性成果之一

New Evidence of Convergence Across Chinese Provinces

LUO Ren fu, LI Xiao jian, QIN Cheng lin   

  1. College of Environment and Planning, Kaifeng 475001 China
  • Received:2001-10-01 Revised:2001-12-01 Online:2002-01-24 Published:2002-01-24

摘要: 本文参照 Coulombe的趋同模型 ,并根据中国的实际作出调整 ,以此分析了我国 1 978~ 1 999年各省区经济的趋同问题。研究结果如下 :各个地区之间存在条件趋同 ,趋同的速度大约为 4.5 % ;在趋同的过程中 ,东部沿海大部分地区都已达到或接近其稳定状态 ,而西部地区则大多在稳定状态值附近波动 ;本文还给出了我国各省相对人均 GDP的稳定状态值 ;实证分析的研究结果指出东部先行优势对长期稳定状态值有巨大影响 ,这说明市场经济体制的建立与完善 ,外资的引进 ,先进的技术 ,区位优势等因素对经济发展的重大作用。

关键词: 地区经济, 趋同, 中国

Abstract: This paper is based on the well known conditional convergence model of Barro and Sala I Martin (1995) and an article by Coulombe S. (New Evidence of Convergence Across Canadian Provinces: the Role of Urbanization) to examine the relative evolution of per capita GDP across 30 provinces in China from 1978 to 1999. This paper selects the ratio between the employment ratio of secondary and tertiary industries of the provinces and that of nation to represent the relative steady state. As a result, empirical results show differences from opinions of other papers in such aspects as convergent speed and convergent model, etc.. Empirical results indicate that economic growth among the provinces has converged at a speed of about 4.5% per year. Most of the coastal regions in China appear to be in the neighborhoods of their respective steady states in 1999. While the other provinces have been vibrating under or in the neighborhoods of their respective steady states since 1978, the deviation from their respective steady states is bigger than that of coastal regions. This paper finds that the impact of prior advantage to its relative steady state value is about 0 618. This paper also calculates the evolution of respective steady state. The analysis indicates that in the period of the study, the industrialization, market economic mechanism, foreign capital ,advanced technology, economic location, and etc, play an important role in the course of the economy growth. So in making progress, we should pay attention to those factors. The analysis also echoes the timing of carrying out the "big development" of western region in china.

Key words: China, convergence, regional economic

中图分类号: 

  • F127