关键词: 病情指标, 评估, 区划, 鼠疫

Abstract: Based on the data of plague in China since 1840, nine appropriate indictors are selected, which are total number of plague, total number of plague deaths, annual average of number of plague cases, annual average plague deaths, the number of plague occurring years, the number of human plague epidemic sites during the highest incident years, total number of human plague epidemic sites, incidents times for epidemic sites of human plague, and case fatality rate. The data of nine indictors show non normal distribution through distribution tests, so we establish the standards to divide the grades for all the plague indictors by the way of percentile. The spatial distribution features of each plague indicators are studied by using GIS. Moreover, a comprehensive indicator to assess plague for different areas is made through the method of factor analyzing, which is applied for regionalization of the plague in whole China. The results indicate that there are two plague prevalent regions: north of China and south of China in the past. In south of China, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan provinces were seriously prevalent plague areas; Jilin, Inner-Mongolia, Shan’xi provinces, in north of China, were also seriously prevalent plague areas. At present, almost all the plague areas are controlled, but there are still a few cases of plague in west especially in the south west of China. The comprehensive evaluation of plague will be benefit for watching out of plague prevalence and convenient for plague management according to various grades of different areas.

Key words: evaluation, indicator of the plague, plague, regionalization