地理科学进展 ›› 2001, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 73-80.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2001.01.010

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

150年来中国鼠疫的医学地理评估

李海蓉, 杨林生, 王五一, 谭见安   

  1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2001-03-01 修回日期:2001-03-01 出版日期:2001-01-24 发布日期:2001-01-24
  • 作者简介:李海蓉(1975-),女,在职博士生。主要从事环境、发展与健康方面的研究,参加了院重点项目、国家攻关专题等多项科研任务,发表论文多篇。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(49771077)

Medical Geographical Evaluation on 150 Years Plague Epidemic

LI Hai rong, YANG Lin sheng, WANG Wu yi, TAN Jian an   

  1. Institute of Geographical and Natural Resource Research, CAS, Beijing 100101 China
  • Received:2001-03-01 Revised:2001-03-01 Online:2001-01-24 Published:2001-01-24

摘要: 本文根据 1 840年以来我国鼠疫病情资料,选择 9种反映鼠疫病情的适宜指标,通过对 52 2个病区县的原始数据的正态分布检验,确定了百分位的分级标准。利用 GIS技术,分县、省两级进行病情指标分级及病情空间分布分析,在此基础上,采用因子分析法确立了评价鼠疫病情的综合指标,并据此对全国进行了按省、区和县为单元的鼠疫病情区划。结果表明,我国鼠疫流行分为南、北两大区域,南方的广东、云南、福建、广西、海南等省区为中国历史上成片的鼠疫病情严重区,北方的吉林、内蒙古、陕西病情亦较严重,应密切注意这些地区的鼠疫变化状况。

关键词: 病情指标, 评估, 区划, 鼠疫

Abstract: Based on the data of plague in China since 1840, nine appropriate indictors are selected, which are total number of plague, total number of plague deaths, annual average of number of plague cases, annual average plague deaths, the number of plague occurring years, the number of human plague epidemic sites during the highest incident years, total number of human plague epidemic sites, incidents times for epidemic sites of human plague, and case fatality rate. The data of nine indictors show non normal distribution through distribution tests, so we establish the standards to divide the grades for all the plague indictors by the way of percentile. The spatial distribution features of each plague indicators are studied by using GIS. Moreover, a comprehensive indicator to assess plague for different areas is made through the method of factor analyzing, which is applied for regionalization of the plague in whole China. The results indicate that there are two plague prevalent regions: north of China and south of China in the past. In south of China, Yunnan, Fujian, Guangxi and Hainan provinces were seriously prevalent plague areas; Jilin, Inner-Mongolia, Shan’xi provinces, in north of China, were also seriously prevalent plague areas. At present, almost all the plague areas are controlled, but there are still a few cases of plague in west especially in the south west of China. The comprehensive evaluation of plague will be benefit for watching out of plague prevalence and convenient for plague management according to various grades of different areas.

Key words: evaluation, indicator of the plague, plague, regionalization

中图分类号: 

  • R188