地理科学进展 ›› 1999, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 158-162.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.1999.02.009

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

自然灾害的灰色关联灾情评估模型及应用研究

陈亚宁, 杨思全   

  1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011
  • 收稿日期:1998-11-01 修回日期:1999-04-01 出版日期:1999-04-24 发布日期:1999-04-24
  • 作者简介:陈亚宁(1958-),男,中科院新疆生态与地理研究所副研究员,西北大学在读博士。主要从事环境与灾害研究。新疆维吾尔自治区有突出贡献优秀专家,首批入选中科院“西部之光”人材培养计划。
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院“西部之光”资助项目,新疆重点科研项目

The application and model of grey association for evaluation of natural disaster

CHEN Ya ning, YANG Si quan   

  1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:1998-11-01 Revised:1999-04-01 Online:1999-04-24 Published:1999-04-24

摘要: 关联度是事物之间、因素之间关联性的量度。本文基于计算自然灾害损失评价指标的参考序列U0和其比较序列Ui之间的关联度这一思路,建立灰色关联灾情评估模型,并以新疆“96.7”洪水灾害灾情评估为例进行实例分析,计算得出了新疆“96.7”洪水灾害中部分地州市灾害等级的归属及其等级序列。结果表明:应用灰色关联灾情评估模型进行自然灾害灾度等级划分,既避免了人为的主观任意性,又能够很好地与实际相吻和。因而,灰色关联灾情评估模型是一种科学、实用的灾度评价方法。

关键词: 灰色关联, 灾情评估, 自然灾害

Abstract: The degree of association is a measurement of associativity among things or factors. In this paper, based on calculating the degree of association between the reference sequence U0 and the comparison sequence Ui of evaluation quotas of natural disaster, the model of grey association for evaluation of natural disaster is established and is applied to the disastrous degree evaluation of Xinjiang “96 7” floods. By using the model, the disastrous grade belonging of some regions in the Xinjiang “96 7” floods and the sequence of disastrous grade are made out. The results show: using the model of grey association for evaluation of natural disaster not only can avoid the arbitrariance of artificial judgement, but also can accord with the facts well. So, the model of grey association is a scientific and practical way to evaluate the disastrous condition of natural disaster.

Key words: evaluation model of disaster condition, grey association, natural disaster

中图分类号: 

  • X43