IPCC AR5全球气候模式对1996-2005年中国气温模拟精度评价

孙侦, 贾绍凤, 吕爱锋, 朱文彬, 高彦春

Assesment on precision of temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China, 1996-2005

Zhen SUN, Shaofeng JIA, Aifeng LV, Wenbin ZHU, Yanchun GAO

表2 1996-2005年IPCC AR5全球气候模式模拟逐日平均气温精度的评估结果/%

Tab.2 Precision evaluation results of average daily temperature simulated by the IPCC AR5 GCMs in China/%, 1996-2005

Models	$\begin{matrix} r > 0.98 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} r < 0.92 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} \| Bias \| < 0.5 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} \| Bias \| > 1.5 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} MRE < 0.2 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} MRE > 0.6 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} MAE < 2 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} MAE > 4 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} RMSE < 2 \end{matrix}$	$\begin{matrix} RMSE > 6 \end{matrix}$
BCC	67.9	0.9	70.2	6.2	70.9	1.1	24.5	31.4	11.7	16.4
BNU	44.8	0	73.9	5.6	79.4	0.9	31.7	24.5	18.5	12.4
CanESM2	56.4	1.2	77.4	6.2	82.9	1.1	38.8	23.6	14.5	14.2
CCSM4	68.5	0.3	81.7	7.3	82.9	2.9	40.8	19.8	16.5	11.4
MPI-ESM-LR	63.8	3.0	82.3	7.1	82.1	2.9	54.7	16.1	31.2	10.3
MRI-CGCM3	68.2	0	69.2	10.8	78.6	3.5	16.1	28.8	8.0	17.1
NorESM1-M	69.1	0.3	71.4	7.7	76.5	2.3	17.1	30.8	7.4	17.6
GISS-E2-R	36.8	0.5	82.3	7.0	73.8	3.9	33.5	22.4	13.2	14.5
IPSL-CM5A-LR	55.5	0.2	62.1	9.7	74.5	3.6	26.1	36.1	10.5	20.0
MME	88.0	0	78.6	6.4	80.6	1.8	47.9	22.0	37.0	12.0