张会
, 李铖, 吴艳艳
ZHANG Hui, LI Cheng, WU Yanyan
通讯作者:
收稿日期: 2018-03-30
修回日期: 2018-09-14
网络出版日期: 2019-02-28
版权声明: 2019 地理科学进展 《地理科学进展》杂志 版权所有
基金资助:
作者简介:
第一作者简介：张会(1987— ),女,河南驻马店人,博士生,主要从事遥感与GIS应用研究、城市洪涝风险评估研究。E-mail: huihui945726@163.com
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摘要
在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面：①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。
关键词：
Abstract
In the context of global climate change and urban expansion, urban floods frequently cause serious social problems and economic losses. Flood risk assessment as the main content of urban flood management has received extensive attention. This article first presents the conceptual framework of urban flood risk assessment and the function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It then reviews their main research contents respectively, analyzes the strengths and limitations of different research methods in the perspective of urban flood risk management. We conclude that the development trends of urban flood risk assessment include the following four aspects: 1) With regard to flood hazard evaluation, developing the two-dimensional hydraulics flood inundation model incorporating different sources of floods in urban areas such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal floods is imperative for urban flood risk assessment. 2) Exposure evaluation is moving towards more refined and dynamic evaluation with the support of big data and GIS. 3) Vulnerability assessment is shifting from the quantitative evaluation of the physical dimension to multi-dimensional assessments, such as social, economic, cultural, environmental, and others. 4) In addition, semi-quantitative and quantitative urban flood risk assessment combined with climate change and urban expansion considerations under multiple scenarios is also an important component of future urban flood management.
Keywords：
在气候变化与城市化的背景下,全球城市洪涝灾害频发,造成严重的社会经济问题,如经济损失、交通堵塞、环境污染、居民出行及健康风险等(Wheater et al, 2009; IPCC, 2014; Kuklicke et al, 2016; Sofia et al, 2017)。城市化进程中以不透水面增加为主的土地利用变化,减少了地表下渗,增加了地表径流(Arnold et al, 1996; Gilroy et al, 2012)。而城市基础设施建设与城市发展不协调,如排水管网标准普遍偏低,导致城市洪涝问题的出现。以极端降雨及海平面上升为主要特征的气候变化又加剧了这一趋势。与此同时,城市化进程中人口与资产逐渐向城市聚集(张建云等, 2014; Slater et al, 2016),导致城市洪涝的影响范围及强度进一步增加。因此城市洪涝已成为城市管理亟需解决的问题,受到各国政府部门及相关学者的关注(IPCC, 2012; Woodruff et al, 2013; 宋晓猛等, 2014; Adelekan et al, 2015; Slater et al, 2016)。
当前城市洪涝管理已从以灰色设施为主的工程性防御措施转变为以风险管理为主(Johnson et al, 2007)。城市洪涝风险评估与风险减轻是风险管理的两大组成部分(Schanze et al, 2007)。城市洪涝风险评估的目的是分析当前或未来的洪涝风险信息,识别高风险区域(Muis et al, 2015; Moritz et al, 2016),进而为洪涝减轻措施提供决策支撑,同时也是评估其减轻措施有效性的手段(Meyer et al, 2009; Zhou et al, 2012)。城市洪涝风险评估中主要框架有“概率(Probability)—后果(Consequence)” (Meyer et al, 2009)与“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V” (Merz et al, 2004; Haynes et al, 2008; IPCC, 2014; Giupponi et al, 2015)。相对于前者,“H-E-V”框架评估内容全面且明确,同时又具有较好的操作性,受到学者与研究机构的广泛使用。如IPCC采用此框架评估城市洪涝风险。“H-E-V”框架由危险性、暴露性、脆弱性三大内容组成：
洪涝风险=危险性(H)×暴露性(E)×脆弱性(V) (1)
危险性是洪涝风险分析的第一步,用于识别洪涝发生的空间位置及强度,包括淹没范围、深度、流速和时间等(Apel et al, 2008; Zhou et al, 2012)。暴露性指受洪涝危险性影响到的风险要素,具体指受影响的人、建筑、财产、经济活动与其他人类活动(Camarasa-Belmonte et al, 2012; IPCC, 2012; De Bono et al, 2014),是连接危险性与脆弱性的桥梁(Yin et al, 2014)。脆弱性概念涉及社会学、气候变化、灾害管理等不同学科及专业领域,由于不同学科的研究侧重点不同,所以目前为止,脆弱性还没有统一的概念(Birkmann, 2007; Kablan et al, 2017)。脆弱性的概念存在争议是当前城市洪涝风险评估最大的障碍之一(Mechler et al, 2014; Koks et al, 2015)。可持续科学中脆弱性分析框架(The Framework for Vulnerability Analysis in Sustainability Science, SUST) (Kasperson et al, 2003)、欧洲脆弱性改善框架(Method for the Improvement of Vulnerability in Europe, MOVE) (Birkmann et al, 2013)和一些学者的研究(Turner et al, 2003; Cutter et al, 2008; Krellenberg et al, 2016)认为脆弱性应包括城市在洪涝中的暴露性、易损性、应对/恢复能力。而有些研究则将暴露性(Koks et al, 2015; Li C et al, 2016; Löwe et al, 2017; Tapia et al, 2017)或应对/恢复能力(Foudi et al, 2015)排除在外,将二者作为城市洪涝风险评估中的独立部分。第5次IPCC报告认为脆弱性、危险性与暴露性是气候变化驱动下风险评估的三大核心内容,并将脆弱性定义为对洪涝不利影响的倾向性,包括易损性与应对/恢复能力(IPCC, 2014)。本文采用最近的IPCC报告中的脆弱性概念。易损性与应对/恢复能力两部分可通过物理、社会、经济、生态、文化、政策、风险认知等多维度特征进行评估(Cho et al, 2017; Kita, 2017)。
在当前城市洪涝风险评估的综述方面,涉及危险性方面的文章较多(Fletcher et al, 2013; Salvadore et al, 2015; Chalkias et al, 2016; Teng et al, 2017),而在暴露性、脆弱性方面较少。在危险性研究方面,Teng等(2017)将计算危险性的洪涝淹没模型分为经验模型、水动力学模型、简化模型三大类,分析其优点、局限性和如何处理不确定性问题,并讨论其最新进展及未来方向,但未详细陈述城市地区对洪涝建模的需求;刘勇等(2015)从智慧城市视角出发,认为城市雨季洪涝(内涝)建模精细化、与RS和GIS技术融合及注重时空过程和智慧服务是城市洪涝模拟发展的必然趋势,但未关注城市不同洪涝类型对建模的需求;Fletcher等(2013)与Salvadore等(2015)侧重分析城市水文过程及建模机理,认为城市水文建模应该注重其时空分辨率、水文过程交互和不确定性分析,但未对城市洪涝建模的应用进行深入探讨。在脆弱性研究方面,石勇等(2009)重点对洪涝灾害中能定量化评估脆弱性物理维度的灾损率曲线展开分析,总结了灾损曲线的起源、建立方法和综合运用的趋势,但未关注脆弱性的社会等其他维度;Cho等(2017)分析了2006—2016年近10年间城市洪涝脆弱性中的物理维度、机构维度和社会维度,但是在方法的对比及未来研究展望方面探讨不充分。Yin等(2014)在“H-E-V”的基础上综述了中国在城市洪涝风险评估的研究进展,但未关注国外的研究现状。由于城市地区自然与社会方面的复杂性给城市洪涝造成了很大的不确定性,所以本文从城市洪涝管理的现实需求出发,全面梳理国内外城市洪涝风险评估的研究内容,分析其研究方法的适用范围及优缺点,并探讨其未来的发展趋势与面临的关键问题,旨在为城市洪涝管理提供科学的决策依据。
危险性分析主要目的是获取城市洪涝的淹没范围、深度、流速等属性信息,为下一步的暴露性、脆弱性分析作准备,其中淹没深度、流速是最常用的属性(Schanze et al, 2007; Teng et al, 2017)。其主要方法有历史灾情法与模型模拟法(Koch et al, 2016)。在城市洪涝风险评估中需求的视角下分析和讨论这些方法的适用性,可有效指导不同城市构建满足自身需求的危险性计算方法。
(1) 历史灾情法是统计以往的洪涝事件中观测的淹没范围、深度、流速及产生此次洪涝事件的降雨强度(Yang T H et al, 2015; Koch et al, 2016)。此方法有很强的时效性,通常认为其精度较高,只能提供事后的洪涝风险评估,但可为洪涝淹没模型提供验证数据。近年来机器学习与多次历史灾情数据结合成为新的研究热点。机器学习通过建立淹没结果(淹没范围、深度等)与洪涝的诱发因素(降雨、地形、土地利用等)之间的关系,预测以后的洪涝危险性强度(Wang et al, 2015; Lai et al, 2017; Mojaddadi et al, 2017)。如Wang等(2015)利用随机森林对东江流域多年洪涝危险性数据进行分析,识别了对危险性贡献最大的5个因子：3 d最大降雨量、径流深度、台风频率、高程和地形湿润指数。Mojaddadi等(2017)综合利用频率比与支持向量机的方法,识别与洪涝相关的因素,进而获取洪涝频率图,然后结合洪涝触发因子降雨与淹没深度,获取研究区的洪涝风险图。
(2) 模型模拟法是获取危险性信息的主流方法。城市洪涝风险下的淹没模型方法选择,不仅要考虑到模型模拟的结果输出,还需考虑城市面临的洪涝源的差异,如城市可能面临河流洪涝、雨季洪涝、沿海洪涝中的1种或多种叠加的情景(Glenis et al, 2013; Dieperink et al, 2016; Tapia et al, 2017)。城市洪涝淹没模型根据计算方法及其物理机制划分为水文模型、水力学模型和简化模型(张建云等, 2014; Teng et al, 2017)。水文模型通过子汇水区单元及排水系统概化处理只能得到最终的淹没范围及深度,不能模拟地表积水深度以及流速等非模型节点处的洪涝动态过程。但是水文模型对数据要求及计算成本都较低,所以目前其在洪涝模拟中的应用较广泛。水力学模型根据其模型空间表达的不同,模型可分为1D和2D模型(Teng et al, 2017), 例如1D模型的空间单元为一系列的横断面;2D模型则有规则格网、非结构格网和弹性格网。在方法上,水力学模型采用圣维南方程与2D浅水方程模拟城市洪水的演进过程,能表达城市地区高度的空间异质性,如城市地形特征及建筑物空间分布,且能动态获取洪涝过程中的地表积水深度及流速(宋晓猛等, 2014),更能满足城市洪涝风险评估的需求。但是它对数据的要求与计算成本比较高,所以其实际应用受到一定的限制(刘勇等, 2015)。在一些较难获取数据的城市地区,对数据要求较低的简化模型不失为一种选择。这些模型通常简化降雨—径流—积涝的演进过程,以水体由高向低流动的这一原理,利用GIS工具在研究区地形的基础上获取洪涝的淹没范围及深度。在城市洪涝风险评估中常用的简化模型有基于SCS的内涝简化模型(Yin et al, 2011; 权瑞松等, 2015)、HAND(Height Above the Nearest Drainage)模型(Nobre et al, 2016)和元胞自动机模型等(Ghimire et al, 2013)。
在城市面临的洪涝源方面,城市雨季洪涝则指强降雨引发城市内部排水管网能力不足造成的积水现象, 现在的城市内涝多属于此类。常用的模型有SWMM、MIKE Urban、InfoWorks CS和CityCAT等(Petrucci et al, 2014; Gaudio et al, 2015; Bisht et al, 2016; Bertsch et al, 2017)。常用的水文模型SWMM能获取雨水口的溢流量,淹没深度与流速的获取还需借助GIS技术或耦合地表二维水利计算(黄国如等, 2015; 王昊等, 2018)。城市河流洪涝常用的模型有HEC-RAS、MIKE Flood和InfoWorks CS等(Costabile et al, 2015; Vojinovic et al, 2015; Patel et al, 2017)。如Vojinovic等(2015)、Patel等(2017)分别根据已有HEC-RAS与MIKE Flood模型构建研究区城市河流洪涝模型,获取流速及淹没深度信息。而Koch等(2016)在1D圣维南方程与2D浅水方程的基础上构建城市河流洪涝淹没模型。沿海洪涝指由于台风引发的风暴潮或潮汐造成的海水倒灌现象。沿海洪涝模拟要借助于风暴潮模型(如ADCIRC)、潮汐模型(如Delft3D-FLOW)、综合的水动力学模型(如MIKE21)和GIS的“水位”法(Yin et al, 2014)。如Takagi等(2016)利用Delft3D-FLOW模型对海洋潮汐建模,并模拟了湄公河三角洲Can Tho城市地区的淹没深度及流速。
需要关注的是有些城市特别是沿海城市面临着2种及以上洪涝源同时发生的情景,并且多种洪涝源同时发生的趋势正逐渐增加(Dieperink et al, 2016),所以在这些城市的洪涝模型模拟中需要根据实际情况对城市可能发生洪涝源模型进行耦合。目前已开展相关研究耦合了两种洪涝源的模拟,如Apel等(2016)建立Can Tho 市雨季与河流同时发生的综合洪涝模型;Olbert等(2017)建立沿海城市Cork由于潮汐、风暴潮、河流淹没引发的多尺度综合洪涝模型,估算了洪涝演进过程中的淹没范围、深度、流速的时空变化。但是目前对于3种洪涝源(河流、雨季、沿海)同时发生的综合洪涝淹没模型的研究案例较少,因此需加强沿海地区3种洪涝源淹没的耦合模拟,以使之适应不同情况的城市洪涝风险评估。
中国目前在城市洪涝的危险性研究方面同国际上相似,侧重模型模拟。如朱呈浩等(2018)在水文模型SWMM的基础上模拟了西安市沣西新城区洪涝过程。而初祁等(2014)则利用MIKE系列模型构建北京天堂河下游地区1D和2D水动力学模型,耦合模拟了不同暴雨重现期下的淹没特性。吴旭树等(2016)耦合SWMM和2D水动力模型LISFLOOD-FP建立适宜华南沿海地区的暴雨洪涝模型,模拟了不同暴雨重现期(1~20 a)及极端环境(100 a暴雨重现期,地面沉降0.5 m和运河水位抬升0.7 m)下的淹没水深及范围。段丽瑶等(2014)通过改进城市内涝仿真模型使得模型能同时模拟内涝及风暴潮的淹没情景。张念强等(2013)耦合SCS、简化的城市排水模型、2D水动力模型,模拟了城市中河流洪涝、雨季洪涝及二者同时发生的洪涝风险危险性。中国水利水电科学研究院等单位(仇劲卫等, 2000)与陈洋波等(2015)分别自主开发了适用于天津与东莞的城市暴雨洪涝模型,模型都采用无结构化不规则网格单元划分法,利用2D非恒定流水力方程计算地表水流运动与内涝积水。综上所述,国内在城市洪涝的建模方面也开始关注城市多洪涝源同时发生的情景。目前主要的建模方法可归纳为2种：一是直接利用现有的1种或耦合多种洪涝模拟软件模拟危险性信息;二是根据水文水动力学方程自主开发城市洪涝模型。
实地调查法与GIS空间分析方法(Chapin et al, 2008; Tran et al, 2009; Jalayer et al, 2014)是暴露性分析的主要方法。实地调查法可通过灾后走访或仪器监测,获取受灾体的暴露性信息。与危险性的历史灾情法类似,该方法只能提供事后评估。GIS空间分析法通过对研究对象与城市洪涝危险性结果图进行叠加分析,识别暴露在洪涝中的房屋、道路、人口的空间位置数量等信息。房屋建筑是城市暴露性分析中一直关注的内容(Quan et al, 2010; Hanson et al, 2011; Yin et al, 2011; Kebede et al, 2012; Shepard et al, 2012; Weis et al, 2016)。近年来,随着获取数据手段的增加及精度的提高,暴露性分析结果逐渐精细化、动态化。如常用的人口普查数据受到行政单元或时间维度分辨率不足的限制(Smith et al, 2014),不能满足实时动态的暴露性分析。Maantay等(2009)开发了新的人口制图方法“基于专家系统的地籍分区密度”,这种方法根据建筑物分布通过降尺度分解人口普查数据,估算了纽约市100 a与500 a暴雨重现期洪涝的人口暴露性。这种方法虽然能获取精细尺度的人口分布,但获取的仍然是静态的人口。近年来,新的方法及数据的出现使得实时动态的人口获取成为可能。Smith等(2014)构建了南安普敦市200 m格网人口时空模型,分析了1天3个不同时间段的人口分布,结果表明由于工作人口的移动,造成河流洪涝与潮汐洪涝中人口暴露性的变化。另外大数据方面的人口热力图在人口暴露性动态化分析中有很大的应用潜力。一些学者也开展了城市洪涝中交通暴露性研究,如Pregnolato等(2017)通过一系列观测和实验数据源建立洪水深度与车辆速度的函数关系,识别纽卡斯尔市在10 a与50 a一遇的城市雨季洪涝中的道路畅通情况。
国内研究在暴露性方面,除了关注城市不同用地类型的暴露性外(Yin et al, 2011; 权瑞松等, 2011; 石勇等, 2011),还关注了易受暴雨影响的城市交通,如地铁站等。如权瑞松等(2011)模拟上海市仓储、公共建筑等6种建筑类型与地铁(权瑞松, 2015)在不同暴雨情景下的淹没深度,在考虑不同积水深度的基础上建立暴露性指数来评价不同用地类型的暴露水平。但是目前国内在人口的暴露性方面研究较少。
洪涝风险评估的侧重点已从早期的危险性过渡到以脆弱性为主(Yin et al, 2014)。当前研究中脆弱性评估的主要方法是灾损曲线法(Merz et al, 2004; Meyer et al, 2009; Hsu et al, 2011; Domeneg-hetti et al, 2015; Glas et al, 2017)与多准则指标评价法(Müller et al, 2011; Castro et al, 2016; Kotzee et al, 2016; Fatemi et al, 2017; Kablan et al, 2017; Liang et al, 2017; Sadeghi-Pouya et al, 2017a)。
灾损曲线法通过统计洪涝事件发生后的洪涝损失后经数学计算发展而来,通过建立淹没深度与不同建筑物/土地利用类型损失值之间的函数关系,以货币形式定量化估算不同土地利用类型或建筑物在洪涝事件中的损失值(Merz, 2010; Domeneghetti et al, 2015; Li C et al, 2016; Albano et al, 2017 )。很多发达国家建立了完整的灾损曲线数据库(石勇等, 2009),使灾损曲线法在评估建筑物损失中得到广泛的应用(Apel et al, 2008; Vu et al, 2017)。此外,城市洪涝灾害损失受多种因素的影响,只考虑淹没深度的灾损曲线会导致结果存在很大的不确定性(Thieken et al, 2016)。在数据挖掘技术的支撑下(Kreibich et al, 2017),基于多变量的灾损曲线法(Merz et al, 2004; Penning-Rowsell et al, 2005; Wahab et al, 2016; Chinh et al, 2017; Speight et al, 2017)考虑淹没时间、流速、建筑类型、建筑质量等对洪涝损失的影响,用来改善脆弱性评估结果。
多准则指标评价法涉及的关键问题是指标的选取及其权重的确定。其中指标的选取与洪涝类型、空间尺度、研究区特征等相关(Müller et al, 2011; Krellenberg et al, 2016; Tapia et al, 2017; Speight et al, 2017)。其中权重确定的方法有层次分析法(AHP)、模糊逻辑、主成分分析(PCA)、专家打分等(Kandilioti et al, 2011; Pradhan, 2011;Kotzee et al, 2016; Araya-Munoz et al, 2017)。上述方法能通过对指标归类并进行权重赋值以获取易损性与恢复/应对能力在物理、社会、经济、生态、政策、风险感知等维度的单独或综合脆弱性。与灾损曲线方法不同的是,指标评价法的内容更丰富,包括社会、经济、应对/恢复维度等,但是其不能完全定量化分析,权重赋值在一定程度上存在主观性,而且关注研究尺度是城市社区及以上尺度。在城市洪涝脆弱性研究的内容方面,大部分侧重于基于灾损曲线法估算的脆弱性评估,但近年发达国家开始脆弱性的社会、经济、应对/恢复等多维度研究(Apel et al, 2008; Cho et al, 2017)。以下案例从脆弱性的不同维度出发开展相关研究：Rimba等(2017)综合遥感数据、GIS、AHP方法,选取降雨强度、排水密度、土壤类型、土地利用类型4类指标分析了日本冈崎市城市洪涝的物理脆弱性;Ajibad等(2013)利用描述性统计与卡方检验方法分析问卷调查数据,认为决定女性在洪涝风险意识与应对能力的主要因素不是性别而是经济社会地位、就业状况、医疗福利;Kotzee等(2016)选取了与社会-生态-基础设施-经济相关的24个指标,利用权重与主成分分析方法构建综合的洪涝弹性指数;Tapia等(2017)选取了61指标,利用因子分析和主成分分析获取指标权重,详细分析了欧洲城市在3种不同洪涝下(571个城市雨季洪涝,365个城市河流洪涝,92个沿海城市洪涝)的易损性及应对/恢复能力在物理、社会-经济维度的综合脆弱性。
国内脆弱性方面集中在基于灾损曲线的定量化损失评估。但是由于国内在洪涝损失实际统计数据的不足,还没建立普遍适用的灾损曲线数据库,大部分的灾损曲线是基于单个洪涝事件的现场问卷调查数据,还有部分研究是借鉴研究区外已有的灾损曲线,这进一步增大了脆弱性评估结果的不确定性并限制了灾损曲线的推广。如刘耀龙等(2011)、姜鎏鹏(2012)、石勇(2014)、王诗晨(2015)根据单个洪涝事件的实地问卷调查分别构建了温州市麻步镇和水头镇、口前镇、上海市、巢湖流域居民建筑内外部或商业住房的灾损曲线。而刘泽照(2018)则是借鉴尹占娥(2009)建立的上海市灾损-曲线绘制了西安钟元社区在不同暴雨情景下的脆弱性分布图。同时笔者注意到国内研究者在问卷调查的基础上开始关注基于多变量灾损曲线的建立,如石勇(2015)在实际问卷调查的基础上利用合成法构建基于不同收入阶层的脆弱性曲线,评估上海市龙华镇在潮位上升5 m、5.5 m和6 m等3种不同情景下的洪涝损失;曹诗嘉等(2015)在调查问卷的基础上不仅建立了台风风暴潮、暴雨降雨2种洪涝源共同引发的次生沿海洪水灾害的居民建筑与商业用房室内财产的灾损曲线,还评估了淹没时长、减灾措施等因素对损失率大小及脆弱性曲线不确定性的影响。此外,中国学者的研究还涉及电网的脆弱性与人口在洪涝中损失评估,如王峰渊等(2018)根据电网的暴雨灾害形成机制,选取反映孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力的DEM、河网、植被、财政收入以及电网资料等指标,评估了临海地区的电网脆弱性分布;扈海波等(2014)建立了适用于暴雨灾害人员损失风险快速预评估模型,并以北京市的“7·21”和“6·23”暴雨为案例,进行了模型的应用及检验分析。
综合洪涝风险评估利用GIS技术(Zhou et al, 2012)和机器学习方法(Balbi et al, 2016; Araya-Munoz et al, 2017; Lai et al, 2017),综合前述的三大主要内容(危险性、暴露性、脆弱性),获取最终风险评估结果。根据评估结果形式的差异,分为定量与半定量风险评估(Foudi et al, 2015; Vojinovic et al, 2015)。定量风险评估是估算房屋建筑、城市基础设施等单体建筑或不同土地利用类型在洪涝事件中的物理损失。在执行过程中,首先根据城市洪涝淹没模型模拟出不同暴雨重现期或特定洪涝事件中危险性与受灾体暴露性信息,再结合评估内容的脆弱性灾损曲线,计算出研究区域以货币形式量化的灾害损失,其结果通常以货币形式量化的损失——概率风险曲线(Damage-probability Cuver)或预期平均损失(Expected Annual Damage, EAD)表达(Merz et al, 2009; Chinh et al, 2017; Glas et al, 2017; Haer et al, 2017)。半定量的风险评估(Vojinovic et al, 2015; Christie et al, 2017; Sadeghi-Pouya et al, 2017b)主要用于社会、文化、环境等不能直接以货币形式量化损失的内容。其方法与脆弱性估算的指标评价方法类似,不同的是综合洪涝评估方面需要对危险性、暴露性、脆弱性三大指标进行综合估算,根据权重分析最后获取研究区域的综合风险分布图,最终结果是风险评估级别图,常以高风险区、中风险区、低风险区呈现。
传统的风险评估关注不同淹没深度下的房屋等定量化损失评估,忽视了暴露要素脆弱性的多维度属性及空间变异 (Meyer et al, 2009; Koks et al, 2015),导致了洪涝风险评估的片面与不完整性。所以综合城市洪涝风险评估需要结合定量与半定量风险评估方法评估其直接损失与间接损失。近些年综合的洪涝风险评估逐渐得到重视,如Foudi等(2015)根据风险评估框架对Ebro河流域城市地区的居民区与非居民区、农业用地、人口健康和生态服务价值进行综合风险评估。Vojinovic等(2015)采用水文淹没模型、问卷调查等定性与定量相结合的方法评估了泰国大城府地区雨季洪涝在物理、社会、经济、文化、风险意识方面的综合洪涝风险。其他综合洪涝风险评估相关案例如表1所示。
表1 城市洪涝风险评估研究案例方法介绍
Tab. 1 Methods used in urban flood risk assessment cases
| 案例 | 洪涝源类型 | 方法 | 气候变与 城市扩张 | 结果形式 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 危险性 | 暴露性 | 脆弱性 | 综合 | ||||
| Zonensein et al, 2008 | 城市雨季洪涝 | 水文水力学模型 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 多准则指标法 | GIS的多准则指标法 | — | 风险等级图(半定量) |
| Yin et al, 2011; Li C et al, 2016 | 城市雨季洪涝 | SCS/UFSM模型 | 实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | — | 损失值(定量) |
| Lang et al, 2016 | 城市河流洪涝 | MLFP-2D模型 | 土地利用图的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | — | 同上 |
| Meyer et al, 2009 | 城市河流洪涝 | FloodCalc模型 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线,指标法 | 预期损失函数/GIS的多准则指标法 | — | 风险等级图、损失值 |
| Camarasa-Belmonte et al, 2012 | 城市河流洪涝 | 水文地貌法 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | — | — | — | 风险等级图 |
| Domeneghetti et al, 2015 | 城市河流洪涝 | Quasi-2D 模型 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线,指标法 | 预期损失函数 | — | 损失值 |
| Fekete et al, 2017 | 城市河流洪涝 | 历史灾情法 | 实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 多准则指标法 | 基于GIS的多准则指标法 | — | 风险等级图 |
| Li M et al, 2016 | 沿海洪涝 | MIKE 21模型 | 基于土地利用图GIS空间分析 | 实地调查 | GIS空间分析 | — | 风险等级图 |
| Araya-Muñoz et al, 2017 | 城市河流与沿海洪涝 | — | 多准则指标法 | 多准则指标法 | 空间模糊逻辑方法 | — | 风险等级图 |
| Chinch et al, 2017 | 城市雨季/河流洪涝 | 综合水文水力学模型 | 基于土地利用图的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | 气候变化 | 损失值 |
| Zhou et al, 2012 | 城市雨季洪涝 | MIKE Urban | GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | 气候变化 | 损失值及成本效益评估 |
| Moore et al, 2016 | 城市雨季洪涝 | SWMM | GIS空间分析 | 排水管网脆弱性 | — | 气候变化,城市扩张 | 成本效益评估 |
国内在综合洪涝评估方法同国际相同,普遍采用定量与半定量的方法建立研究区域的综合风险评估。如陈鹏等(2016)选取反映哈尔滨城区危险性、暴露性、脆弱性的气象、水文、经济及社会18个指标,评估了2000—2009年间城市洪灾风险及其空间演变模式。李国芳等(2013)选取分析长江三角洲6个典型城市区域建立了12个反映洪涝危险性、暴露性、脆弱性的指标,采用AHP方法评估了研究区域内1991、2001及2006年的综合洪涝风险。扈海波等(2013)将历史降雨数据作为危险性评价指标,人口密度、地均GDP、重点防汛指标为暴露性指标,地形因子、不透水地表组成、河网密度为敏感性指标构建了北京市暴雨积涝综合风险指数。石勇等(2011)与尹占娥(2009)根据上海市内涝仿真模型与基于SCS的简化内涝模型获取研究区的淹没深度,并在此基础上建立了居民住宅的暴露性指数及脆弱性指数,最后评估该地区不同暴雨重现期下的城市内涝综合风险评估。苏伯尼等(2015)构建了龙岩市新罗区的2D水力学模型,并在借鉴尹占娥等(2010)建立的上海市洪涝灾损曲线,分别评估新罗区在不同暴雨重现期(5 a、20 a、100 a)的经济损失。综上所述,国内城市洪涝风险评估大多基于城市尺度,较少深入到城市内部,如街道或社区等。同时综合洪涝风险评估多集中在指标评价法的半定量风险评估,以洪涝损失为结果的定量评估较少。
此外,气候变化与城市扩张的不确定性给未来的洪涝管理带来了很大挑战(Oddo et al, 2017),而洪涝风险评估被认为是解决由气候变化与土地利用变化驱动而增加的洪涝风险的最佳选择(Dawson et al, 2008; Kuklicke et al, 2016; Pfeifer et al, 2017)。因此,气候变化与城市扩张下的城市风险评估已成为当前研究热点与难点(Moore et al, 2016; Pregnolato et al, 2017; Santos et al, 2017)。降雨与海平面上升被认为是气候变化影响洪涝风险不确定性的2个主要方面(Budiyono et al, 2015)。减少其不确定性通常采用多情景模拟法。首先是结合IPCC的SRES或RCPs情景下的全球气候模式(CMIP5、ECHAM6等)或区域气候模式(Reg CM4.0、CCLM、HadCMD3等),通过格局尺度(Pattern Scaling)与天气生成器(Weather Generators)等降尺度方法获取城市尺度上的气候变化情景(Dawson et al, 2009),确定研究区域的降雨变化强度及海平面上升的高度。城市扩张主要通过SRES、 RCPs情景、城市扩张模型(如SLEUTH)模拟城市未来在人口、经济与城市空间发展的情景。如Sekovski等(2015)关注了城市扩张对城市洪涝风险的影响,他利用水文模型及SLEUTH城市扩张模型分析意大利Emilia-Romagna地区不同城市扩张情景下3个暴雨重现期(10 a、100 a、>100 a)的洪涝风险范围。而Lin等(2017)评估了纽约市在城市发展、海平面上升、风暴潮气候变化多情景驱动下的洪涝风险,认为人口增长及城市发展对纽约市未来的洪涝风险影响较小。如果该研究增加气候变化对降雨影响,可成为未来气候变化与城市扩张对沿海城市洪涝风险影响的研究范例。此外,洪涝减轻措施对未来洪涝风险评估的影响已成为新的研究热点。如Jenkins等(2017)在利用主体模型模拟大伦敦地区不同气候变化情景下城市雨季洪水风险和脆弱性的动态演化过程的同时,也评估了可持续排水系统、财产保护措施、新洪涝保险计划3种洪涝风险减轻措施对未来洪涝损失的影响。其他气候变化与城市扩张下的城市洪涝风险评估案例如表1所示。
近年来,国内学者也逐渐关注气候变化与城市扩张对洪涝风险的影响,如Yang L等(2015)分析珠三角地区在3种RCPs气候变化情景下的降雨、海平面上升、台风强度及极端天气频率,评估该区域城市群在这些气候变化情景下的洪涝风险,并提出了适应气候变化的洪涝响应措施,但并未考虑研究区的城市扩张情景。谢志清等(2018)利用FloodArea模型模拟了4种RCPs气候变化情景下南京地区土地利用改变带来的洪涝风险,结果显示在RCP 2.6与RCP 4.5情景下,南京都市圈在2010—2100年间城市建设用地规模无明显变化,而在RCP 6.0与RCP 8.5情景下,洪涝灾害高影响区的城镇面积增加了5.14 km2与9.65 km2,并集中在地势低洼的禄口机场、江宁东山和溧水区。彭建等(2018)以深圳市茅洲河流域为例,基于SCS与等体积淹没法的洪涝淹没模型及城市扩张模型CLUE-S分析了深圳市茅洲河流域在2013—2020年间不同情景下(10 a~100 a)的暴雨洪涝灾害风险。综上所述,国内外大部分研究考虑研究区未来可能面临的洪涝灾害情景的部分可能性,并开始在此基础上提出相应的减轻措施。在未来的研究中,还需结合研究区面临的洪涝源情况,尽可能全面分析其当前及未来的洪涝风险,为洪涝减轻措施提供详细全面的决策依据。
在城市扩张与气候变化下,全球城市洪涝灾害问题日益严峻。洪涝风险评估能为当前与今后的城市洪涝管理特别是为洪涝减轻措施决策提供科学依据。在城市洪涝管理的需求下,城市洪涝风险评估主要有以下3个发展趋势：
(1) 发展适用于城市洪涝风险评估的综合洪涝淹没模型：水文水力学洪涝淹没模型是用来获取危险性信息的主流方法,是洪涝风险评估的第一步。其结果精确性程度直接关系到后面的暴露性、脆弱性及整个综合洪涝风险评估结果的有效性。能获取淹没深度、流速信息且能适应城市多种洪涝源的二维洪涝淹没模型是未来发展的必然趋势。首先,遥感技术及城市水文监测网络的发展为城市洪涝模型的建立及验证提供了丰富的数据支持。如遥感高分影像能提供高时空分辨率的城市土地覆盖/利用图;无人机可以监测城市地区的积水变化;LiDAR能分辨出精细的城市地表特征;城市地区的管网数字化为城市小尺度上洪涝模型建立提供了数据基础。在城市水文机理方面,已有水文实验用于监测分析建筑屋顶、透水铺装、雨水口、城市绿地等的水文特征。此外,有效不透水面的量化及空间分布在影响地表产汇流方面也取得了丰富的研究成果。考虑到城市洪涝风险源的非单一性,一些适应城市多洪涝源同时发生的多情景耦合模型已出现,如沿海城市风暴潮与雨季洪涝耦合模型,及城市雨季洪涝与河流洪涝淹没耦合模型。
(2) 大数据支撑下精细化暴露性分析与多维度脆弱性评估：在暴露性分析方面,数据的时空分辨率一直是制约城市洪涝风险评估准确性、时效性的关键,比如人口分布、交通通行数据等。在脆弱性方面,中国应着手城市洪涝灾害损失数据库的建立,为脆弱性评估及定量化综合洪涝风险评估提供数据支撑。此外,国际上的洪涝风险管理开始重视易损性与应对/恢复能力的社会经济、环境、文化、政策等多维度特征对城市综合洪涝脆弱性方面的影响,特别是人的风险意识、应对/恢复能力。而大数据可为暴露性的精细化评估及脆弱性多维度的综合评估提供数据保障,如Google街景地图已用于识别房屋建筑在洪涝中的脆弱性特征,人口热力图在洪涝动态暴露性分析也有巨大的应用潜力。
(3) 建立长期与短期结合的城市动态化洪涝风险评估：城市发展、气候变化与洪涝事件三者共同决定了城市洪涝风险是一个动态变化的过程。气候变化与城市扩张是洪涝风险长期存在不确定性的两大来源。而特定的洪涝事件则是一个短期的动态化过程。作为洪涝风险减轻措施决策的基础与前提,准确的风险评估能为洪涝灾害事前准备、事中应对、事后恢复的各个阶段提供决策依据。所以建立短期与长期相结合的动态评估机制是决定洪涝减轻措施的必要条件。此外,沿海城市仍是今后需重点关注的区域。一是由于其地理位置更容易受到多种洪涝源与海平面上升的影响,对气候变化的敏感性高于内陆城市。如沿海城市在遭遇强台风时,可能同时面临风暴潮、河流水位暴涨、城市内涝的叠加影响。二是在世界范围内,沿海城市由于其良好的区位优势,聚集了大量的人口、建筑、产业与经济等,这进一步加剧其洪涝风险。因此,今后的洪涝风险研究需耦合气候变化、城市扩张与城市洪涝模拟,实现长期与短期相结合的城市动态化洪涝风险评估,为后续的洪涝减轻措施与城市洪涝风险管理的科学决策提供依据。
本文在全球范围内城市洪涝问题日益严峻的背景下,介绍了基于危险性—暴露性—脆弱性的城市洪涝风险评估框架,梳理了城市洪涝风险评估的主要研究内容,并对比分析了不同研究方法的优缺点,最后探讨了城市洪涝管理下城市洪涝风险评估的发展趋势。主要结论如下：
(1) 加强城市洪涝风险评估内容复杂性的理解。城市洪涝风险评估早期的主要内容是基于危险性信息的城市洪涝风险制图;随着实践的开展,人们逐渐认识到有人类活动及财产暴露的洪涝淹没区更值得关注,而且城市地区洪涝发生的区域及其受影响的人口对洪涝的应对能力、风险意识也会在很大程度上影响最终的城市洪涝风险评估结果。目前为止,在城市洪涝风险评估中已形成以“危险性—暴露性—脆弱性”研究框架。同时气候变化与城市扩张又对城市洪涝风险评估提出了新的要求。针对未来的城市洪涝管理,须考虑气候变化与城市扩张多情景下的城市洪涝风险估算,这样才能采取针对性的洪涝减轻措施。我们需要对城市洪涝风险框架持开放性的理念,应随着实践及新问题的出现,及时调整城市洪涝风险评估中需要关注的内容。
(2) 重视大数据在城市洪涝风险评估的应用。大数据的应用是洪涝风险评估三大内容未来发展的必要支撑。城市洪涝模型的建立与验证需要高时空分辨率的土地利用、降雨数据、高精度的地形数据、城市尺度上的排水管网数据、洪涝事件的实时淹没位置流速等信息。传统的静态数据不能满足洪涝淹没事件中承灾体的暴露性动态化及多维度的脆弱性估算要求,而来源于网络的、移动的大数据在实时、共享方面能弥补传统数据的不足,如基于热力图的人口动态图、城市交通监测数据和基于公众参与式地理信息系统(PGIS)等。目前为止,大数据只是初步用于城市洪涝风险评估,在今后有待进一步挖掘其应用潜力。
(3) 发展适用城市洪涝风险评估的方法体系。由于城市水文过程的高度复杂性,城市洪涝风险评估首先需要一个广泛认可的洪涝淹没模型,能综合城市多种洪涝源的二维洪涝淹没模型是未来的发展趋势。其次在脆弱性与综合洪涝风险评估中根据评估对象的内在要求,需要定性与定量方法的结合。这样才能提供可靠全面的城市综合洪涝风险评估结果,为解决城市洪涝问题提供科学合理的决策支持。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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基于海南省“威马逊”及“海鸥”台风次生海岸洪水灾后问卷调查的室内财产脆弱性研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.02.036 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以2014年"威马逊"及"海鸥"台风次生海岸洪水灾害为对象,以主要受灾区海南省海口市及文昌市为研究区,通过实地勘测调查及问卷调查获取了这两场灾害的重点淹没地区、室内财产淹没水深、财产价值及损失率等数据;选取淹没水深作为致灾因子危险性代表性指标,构建了居民住房室内财产脆弱性曲线及商业用房室内财产脆弱性矩阵,从而定量地刻画了淹没水深与损失率之间的关系;另外利用调查数据,分析了淹没时长、减灾措施等因素对损失率大小及脆弱性曲线不确定性的影响;最后从加强脆弱性曲线结果的区域适用性、有效降低脆弱性曲线的不确定性等方面给出了未来研究的建议。
Vulnerability of building contents to coastal flooding based on questionnaire survey in hainan after typhoon Rammasun and Kalmeagi .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.02.036 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以2014年"威马逊"及"海鸥"台风次生海岸洪水灾害为对象,以主要受灾区海南省海口市及文昌市为研究区,通过实地勘测调查及问卷调查获取了这两场灾害的重点淹没地区、室内财产淹没水深、财产价值及损失率等数据;选取淹没水深作为致灾因子危险性代表性指标,构建了居民住房室内财产脆弱性曲线及商业用房室内财产脆弱性矩阵,从而定量地刻画了淹没水深与损失率之间的关系;另外利用调查数据,分析了淹没时长、减灾措施等因素对损失率大小及脆弱性曲线不确定性的影响;最后从加强脆弱性曲线结果的区域适用性、有效降低脆弱性曲线的不确定性等方面给出了未来研究的建议。
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由于洪灾突发性强、破坏性大、影响范围广，给居民生命安全、财产等造成重大损失，为了更好的预防洪灾及了解未来洪灾风险演变模式，利用自然灾害风险形成四因子理论，选取哈尔滨市区气象、水文、经济及社会等18个指标，构建哈尔滨市区洪灾风险评价模型，对哈尔滨市区2000年－2009年洪灾风险区划，并通过GIS技术对哈尔滨市区2000年－2009年洪灾风险区划分析，归类风险空间演变模式。结果为：哈尔滨市区洪灾风险空间转移升高模式包括边缘接触模式、摆动模式、内部突增模式、跨越模式4种；洪灾风险转移降低模式包括边缘退缩模式、片状降低模式、内部突降模式3种。研究结果可为减少洪灾对城市居民带来的损失及城市防洪规划提供决策依据。
Drought risk space evolution pattern in Haerbin .https://doi.org/10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
由于洪灾突发性强、破坏性大、影响范围广，给居民生命安全、财产等造成重大损失，为了更好的预防洪灾及了解未来洪灾风险演变模式，利用自然灾害风险形成四因子理论，选取哈尔滨市区气象、水文、经济及社会等18个指标，构建哈尔滨市区洪灾风险评价模型，对哈尔滨市区2000年－2009年洪灾风险区划，并通过GIS技术对哈尔滨市区2000年－2009年洪灾风险区划分析，归类风险空间演变模式。结果为：哈尔滨市区洪灾风险空间转移升高模式包括边缘接触模式、摆动模式、内部突增模式、跨越模式4种；洪灾风险转移降低模式包括边缘退缩模式、片状降低模式、内部突降模式3种。研究结果可为减少洪灾对城市居民带来的损失及城市防洪规划提供决策依据。
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东莞市内涝预报模型研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.14188/j.1671-8844.2015-05-003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
东莞市近年来城市内涝发生的频度和烈度均居全国前列.在深入分析东莞市城市内涝形成规律及城市空间特征、综合考虑国内外现有城市洪水模型中有效方法的基础上,建立了东莞市内涝预报模型,其包括5个独立的功能模块：排水分区与网格划分模块根据一级河涌分布对整个城市进行排水分区划分,并采用无结构化不规则网格技术对排水分区内的地表进行单元网格划分;雨量同化模块处理与计算各单元网格上的面雨量,作为模型的输入量,可以是通过雨量计测量的降雨或是多普勒雷达估算的降雨;产流计算模块将地面分为透水地面和不透水地面,并采用不同的方法进行单元网格上的产流计算;地表汇流计算模块进行城市地面水流运动及内涝积水情况计算,其中,单元网格型通道上的汇流按平面二维非恒定流进行计算,地面通道和特殊通道上的汇流按一维非恒定流进行计算;管网汇流计算模块采用一维非恒定流方程,按Priessmann＂明窄缝＂方法进行管网汇流计算.采用该模型对东莞曾经发生过的两场最为严重的内涝进行了模拟,取得了良好的效果.
Urban waterlogging model for Dongguan City .https://doi.org/10.14188/j.1671-8844.2015-05-003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
东莞市近年来城市内涝发生的频度和烈度均居全国前列.在深入分析东莞市城市内涝形成规律及城市空间特征、综合考虑国内外现有城市洪水模型中有效方法的基础上,建立了东莞市内涝预报模型,其包括5个独立的功能模块：排水分区与网格划分模块根据一级河涌分布对整个城市进行排水分区划分,并采用无结构化不规则网格技术对排水分区内的地表进行单元网格划分;雨量同化模块处理与计算各单元网格上的面雨量,作为模型的输入量,可以是通过雨量计测量的降雨或是多普勒雷达估算的降雨;产流计算模块将地面分为透水地面和不透水地面,并采用不同的方法进行单元网格上的产流计算;地表汇流计算模块进行城市地面水流运动及内涝积水情况计算,其中,单元网格型通道上的汇流按平面二维非恒定流进行计算,地面通道和特殊通道上的汇流按一维非恒定流进行计算;管网汇流计算模块采用一维非恒定流方程,按Priessmann＂明窄缝＂方法进行管网汇流计算.采用该模型对东莞曾经发生过的两场最为严重的内涝进行了模拟,取得了良好的效果.
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基于MIKE11和MIKE21的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险分析 [J].
应用MIKE 11和MIKE 21分别构建北京市大兴区天堂河下游地区一维和二维水动力学模型,采用DHI MIKE FLOOD耦合模拟了不同暴雨重现期下该地区的淹没特性.为分析该地区暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性,研究模拟了不同情景下各骨干渠道考虑限制下泄流量的排水状况,整个研究区淹没范围随时间的演变趋势和空间上的分布状况.研究结果表明,整个研究区现状防洪能力不足20a一遇设计标准,且研究区局部区域最大淹没深度超过2m,最大积水时间超过8h,是防洪排涝的重点区域.该结果可为下一步暴雨风险评估,滞洪区的选址和闸坝调度方案的制定提供参考依据.
Risk analysis of urban flooding by using MIKE11 and MIKE21 .
应用MIKE 11和MIKE 21分别构建北京市大兴区天堂河下游地区一维和二维水动力学模型,采用DHI MIKE FLOOD耦合模拟了不同暴雨重现期下该地区的淹没特性.为分析该地区暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性,研究模拟了不同情景下各骨干渠道考虑限制下泄流量的排水状况,整个研究区淹没范围随时间的演变趋势和空间上的分布状况.研究结果表明,整个研究区现状防洪能力不足20a一遇设计标准,且研究区局部区域最大淹没深度超过2m,最大积水时间超过8h,是防洪排涝的重点区域.该结果可为下一步暴雨风险评估,滞洪区的选址和闸坝调度方案的制定提供参考依据.
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基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估 [J].https://doi.org/10.11898/1001-7313.20140312 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Most waterlogging models for inland city use a single boundary condition, the boundary is usually set in a small or large river, with a single flow direction towards outside the region, or set on a highway or a large dam without water exchange alternatively. However, for coastal areas, the ebb and flow lead to changes in wet and dry. Adapting to the intertidal nature, the model should involve dealing with dynamic boundary. Based on urban waterlogging simulation model, the topography and geomorphology of Tianjin coastal areas, as well as the pipe network and drainage systems, are used to expand and improve Tianjin urban waterlogging simulation model. Dynamic water level is set at the coastal border, and the water level stands for the tidal level. When the tide level is higher than the coastal embankment, the tide floods into the city and causes waterlogging. Therefore, the model simulates not only rainfall waterlogging but also the submerging scenario due to storm surge invasion. The flooding scope and standing water depth are simulated using the redeveloped model for the historically typical storm tidal cases in the coastal areas of Tianjin. Referred with the collected records of disaster and actual survey, the developed model takes on skills to some extent in simulation of the submerged scenario due to storm surge invasion. Differences between the simulation and the historical records, however, are non intentionally increased by using the latest ground elevation data. This approach is used in operational application for simulating the storm surge caused by Typhoon Damrey on 3 August 2012. The simulated flooding scope and site are closed to the actual scene, but the simulated standing water depth is larger. Much more detailed calibration should be done in future. Furthermore, the submerging scenarios caused by storm surge in several return periods are simulated. These simulations can be directly used in projecting and assessing the submerging scenario if there is a storm surge predicted to be an year return level or if it has occurred. These simulations can also be directly reported to the government and business clients for early warning.
Tianjin coastal strom surge disater assessment based on urban waterlogging simulation model .https://doi.org/10.11898/1001-7313.20140312 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Most waterlogging models for inland city use a single boundary condition, the boundary is usually set in a small or large river, with a single flow direction towards outside the region, or set on a highway or a large dam without water exchange alternatively. However, for coastal areas, the ebb and flow lead to changes in wet and dry. Adapting to the intertidal nature, the model should involve dealing with dynamic boundary. Based on urban waterlogging simulation model, the topography and geomorphology of Tianjin coastal areas, as well as the pipe network and drainage systems, are used to expand and improve Tianjin urban waterlogging simulation model. Dynamic water level is set at the coastal border, and the water level stands for the tidal level. When the tide level is higher than the coastal embankment, the tide floods into the city and causes waterlogging. Therefore, the model simulates not only rainfall waterlogging but also the submerging scenario due to storm surge invasion. The flooding scope and standing water depth are simulated using the redeveloped model for the historically typical storm tidal cases in the coastal areas of Tianjin. Referred with the collected records of disaster and actual survey, the developed model takes on skills to some extent in simulation of the submerged scenario due to storm surge invasion. Differences between the simulation and the historical records, however, are non intentionally increased by using the latest ground elevation data. This approach is used in operational application for simulating the storm surge caused by Typhoon Damrey on 3 August 2012. The simulated flooding scope and site are closed to the actual scene, but the simulated standing water depth is larger. Much more detailed calibration should be done in future. Furthermore, the submerging scenarios caused by storm surge in several return periods are simulated. These simulations can be directly used in projecting and assessing the submerging scenario if there is a storm surge predicted to be an year return level or if it has occurred. These simulations can also be directly reported to the government and business clients for early warning.
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| [6] |
基于GIS和SWMM模型的城市暴雨积水模拟 [J].https://doi.org/10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.04.01 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以海口市海甸岛片区为研究区域,对组成排水系统的排水管网、道路和河道水系等进行合理概化,构建了该片区排水管网水力模型,提出了基于GIS和SWMM的暴雨积水计算方法,采用3场实测暴雨进行模拟分析,所得内涝淹没位置与实际调研情况基本相符,表明本文所提出的方法具有良好的精度和可靠性;分别对重现期为1、2、5、10、20a设计暴雨情形下的管道节点溢流和积水深度进行模拟。结果表明:该模型较好地评估了该片区排水管网排水能力;另外对比了实测暴雨和设计暴雨的积水模拟结果,表明暴雨雨型对模拟结果有重要影响。
Simulation of rainstorm waterlogging in urban areas based on GIS and SWMM model .https://doi.org/10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2015.04.01 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以海口市海甸岛片区为研究区域,对组成排水系统的排水管网、道路和河道水系等进行合理概化,构建了该片区排水管网水力模型,提出了基于GIS和SWMM的暴雨积水计算方法,采用3场实测暴雨进行模拟分析,所得内涝淹没位置与实际调研情况基本相符,表明本文所提出的方法具有良好的精度和可靠性;分别对重现期为1、2、5、10、20a设计暴雨情形下的管道节点溢流和积水深度进行模拟。结果表明:该模型较好地评估了该片区排水管网排水能力;另外对比了实测暴雨和设计暴雨的积水模拟结果,表明暴雨雨型对模拟结果有重要影响。
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北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2013.01.010 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
该文提出自下而上的城市暴雨积涝灾害风险定量评估方法，即在三级评估指标体系下，由下级指标综合核算上级指标系数。在第2级指标计算中，风险区划的危险性指数由历史降水量资料推算得出，风险预警则用实况及预报降水量来计算致灾因子危险性指数；暴雨敏感性指数综合叠加地形、不透水地表因子及河网密度得出；暴雨积涝的风险暴露因子侧重地均人口密度、地均GDP及重点防汛指标等因子，着重于城市地区人口、经济、防汛重点目标的暴露程度。然后在危险性、敏感性及暴露性指数的基础上叠加得出积涝风险指数。通过对比发现，得到的风险区划结果与2004－2008年北京地区暴雨积涝的历史灾情基本吻合。最后，选用北京2011年“6．23”暴雨作风险预警的实例应用检验及分析，结果表明：采用自下而上的快速风险评估结果与积涝的实际发生情况较为接近，无论是风险变化趋势还是风险区域分布情况均与当天的积涝发生情况基本吻合。即该方法能较为准确、快捷地圈定城市地区各级风险区域，能较好地满足风险评估、区划及风险预警的要求。
Pre-assessment of urban stormwater disaster risk in Beijing area .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2013.01.010 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
该文提出自下而上的城市暴雨积涝灾害风险定量评估方法，即在三级评估指标体系下，由下级指标综合核算上级指标系数。在第2级指标计算中，风险区划的危险性指数由历史降水量资料推算得出，风险预警则用实况及预报降水量来计算致灾因子危险性指数；暴雨敏感性指数综合叠加地形、不透水地表因子及河网密度得出；暴雨积涝的风险暴露因子侧重地均人口密度、地均GDP及重点防汛指标等因子，着重于城市地区人口、经济、防汛重点目标的暴露程度。然后在危险性、敏感性及暴露性指数的基础上叠加得出积涝风险指数。通过对比发现，得到的风险区划结果与2004－2008年北京地区暴雨积涝的历史灾情基本吻合。最后，选用北京2011年“6．23”暴雨作风险预警的实例应用检验及分析，结果表明：采用自下而上的快速风险评估结果与积涝的实际发生情况较为接近，无论是风险变化趋势还是风险区域分布情况均与当天的积涝发生情况基本吻合。即该方法能较为准确、快捷地圈定城市地区各级风险区域，能较好地满足风险评估、区划及风险预警的要求。
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暴雨灾害人员损失风险快速预评估模型 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.01.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
研究在暴雨灾害致灾因子强度分析、孕灾环境敏感性评估等基础上, 把人作为主要的承灾体,用人口密度来评估风险暴露因子;参照北京地区暴雨洪涝的历史灾情资料,建立致灾因子强度(等效日雨量)与人员损失之间的损失系数估 算方程;以不同时段外出人员的比率作为时间纠正系数;最后用因子乘积方式建立人员损失风险预评估模型.以“7·21”和“6·23”暴雨为个例,进行了模 型的应用及检验分析.“7·21”个例选用的雨量数据是BJ_ RUC(24h)预报雨量场,“6·23”选用较为贴近实况的BJ_ ANC定量降水估计QPE资料.检验发现模型估算的“7 ·21”暴雨人员损失总数在数量级别上与实况比较接近,而基于空间网格的人员损失风险预评结果与实际遇难人员发现地点在空间分布上基本一致.尽管 “6·23”暴雨的人员损失预评估的总数不足1人,但在局部地区的损失风险仍然较大,个别格点甚至达到0.40人的风险水平.而这次暴雨过程导致了比较严 重的城市内涝,实际上也发生了几例比较偶然的人员因灾死亡事故.实例应用表明损失预评估可反映出人员损失的基本情况及风险水平,可用于决策气象服务及预警 信息发布的主要依据.
Quick assessing model on casualty loss in rainstorms .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2014.01.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
研究在暴雨灾害致灾因子强度分析、孕灾环境敏感性评估等基础上, 把人作为主要的承灾体,用人口密度来评估风险暴露因子;参照北京地区暴雨洪涝的历史灾情资料,建立致灾因子强度(等效日雨量)与人员损失之间的损失系数估 算方程;以不同时段外出人员的比率作为时间纠正系数;最后用因子乘积方式建立人员损失风险预评估模型.以“7·21”和“6·23”暴雨为个例,进行了模 型的应用及检验分析.“7·21”个例选用的雨量数据是BJ_ RUC(24h)预报雨量场,“6·23”选用较为贴近实况的BJ_ ANC定量降水估计QPE资料.检验发现模型估算的“7 ·21”暴雨人员损失总数在数量级别上与实况比较接近,而基于空间网格的人员损失风险预评结果与实际遇难人员发现地点在空间分布上基本一致.尽管 “6·23”暴雨的人员损失预评估的总数不足1人,但在局部地区的损失风险仍然较大,个别格点甚至达到0.40人的风险水平.而这次暴雨过程导致了比较严 重的城市内涝,实际上也发生了几例比较偶然的人员因灾死亡事故.实例应用表明损失预评估可反映出人员损失的基本情况及风险水平,可用于决策气象服务及预警 信息发布的主要依据.
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口前镇居民住宅洪涝灾害风险评价研究 [D].Research on flood risk assessment of resident dwellings of Kouqian Town . |
| [10] |
长江三角洲地区城市化对洪灾风险的影响评价 [J].
<p>在长江三角洲地区选择了里下河、秦淮河、武澄锡虞、浦东浦西、杭嘉湖和甬曹浦6个城市化典型区域，以1991、2001和2006年3个城市化发展阶段为代表，采用指标体系评价法研究了城市化对洪灾风险的影响。通过基于洪灾形成机制构建洪灾风险评价指标体系，采用层次分析法确定指标权重，计算得到洪灾危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和综合风险的评价结果。表明在城市化过程中，6个典型区域的洪水危险性和承灾体暴露性均有增加趋势，其中承灾体暴露性增加显著；尽管各区域的承灾体脆弱性随着防洪减灾能力的提升而有所降低，但综合洪灾风险总体上仍呈现加剧的态势，对城市可持续发展构成威胁。最后，结合评价结论提出了长江三角洲城市化地区洪灾风险管理的若干建议</p>
Effects evaluation of urbanization on flood risk in the Yangtze River Delt .
<p>在长江三角洲地区选择了里下河、秦淮河、武澄锡虞、浦东浦西、杭嘉湖和甬曹浦6个城市化典型区域，以1991、2001和2006年3个城市化发展阶段为代表，采用指标体系评价法研究了城市化对洪灾风险的影响。通过基于洪灾形成机制构建洪灾风险评价指标体系，采用层次分析法确定指标权重，计算得到洪灾危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和综合风险的评价结果。表明在城市化过程中，6个典型区域的洪水危险性和承灾体暴露性均有增加趋势，其中承灾体暴露性增加显著；尽管各区域的承灾体脆弱性随着防洪减灾能力的提升而有所降低，但综合洪灾风险总体上仍呈现加剧的态势，对城市可持续发展构成威胁。最后，结合评价结论提出了长江三角洲城市化地区洪灾风险管理的若干建议</p>
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经常性暴雨内涝区域房屋财(资)产脆弱性研究: 以温州市为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2011.02.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
基于洪涝灾害脆弱性研究基本思路,选择经常性暴雨内涝区域——温州市麻步镇和水头镇,就0908号台风"莫拉克"影响开展"暴雨内涝灾后房屋财产和商业资产损失"抽样问卷调查。结果表明:淹没区域平均水深1.7m,平均淹没时间超过2 d,房屋财(资)产损失较大;经常性暴雨内涝区域30%住户和商铺灾害损失值和灾损率接近0,房屋财产和商业资产灾损率呈现乘幂函数曲线。
Study on property (capital) vulnerability of houses in regular rainstorm water-logging areas: Taking Wenzhou as a case study .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2011.02.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
基于洪涝灾害脆弱性研究基本思路,选择经常性暴雨内涝区域——温州市麻步镇和水头镇,就0908号台风"莫拉克"影响开展"暴雨内涝灾后房屋财产和商业资产损失"抽样问卷调查。结果表明:淹没区域平均水深1.7m,平均淹没时间超过2 d,房屋财(资)产损失较大;经常性暴雨内涝区域30%住户和商铺灾害损失值和灾损率接近0,房屋财产和商业资产灾损率呈现乘幂函数曲线。
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智慧城市视角下城市洪涝模拟研究综述 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.04.011 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
智慧城市是城市发展的新兴模式。然而,近年来频发的城市洪涝给智慧城市的管理和发展带来了严峻的挑战。暴雨洪涝模拟是城市防洪减灾的关键技术之一,也是智慧城市风险应急管理中重要的决策支持依据。本文首先分析了智慧城市以及智慧水务的内涵,探讨了智慧城市发展和管理对于城市洪涝模拟新的需求;在此基础上梳理了智慧城市发展给城市洪涝模型带来的新的数据支撑;面向智慧城市应急管理决策,对比分析了3种现有的水文模型方法,认为在智慧城市大数据和技术的支持下,基于物理基础的分布式模型是未来城市洪涝模拟的主流发展方向。最后,探讨了建立城市洪涝模型的建模机制、尺度、基础数据库的建立、更新和管理、地表与地下管网模拟并重等关键问题,分析认为精细化、与RS和GIS技术融合、注重时空过程和智慧服务是智慧城市背景下城市洪涝模拟发展的必然趋势。
Research on urban flood simulation: A review from the smart city perspective .https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.04.011 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
智慧城市是城市发展的新兴模式。然而,近年来频发的城市洪涝给智慧城市的管理和发展带来了严峻的挑战。暴雨洪涝模拟是城市防洪减灾的关键技术之一,也是智慧城市风险应急管理中重要的决策支持依据。本文首先分析了智慧城市以及智慧水务的内涵,探讨了智慧城市发展和管理对于城市洪涝模拟新的需求;在此基础上梳理了智慧城市发展给城市洪涝模型带来的新的数据支撑;面向智慧城市应急管理决策,对比分析了3种现有的水文模型方法,认为在智慧城市大数据和技术的支持下,基于物理基础的分布式模型是未来城市洪涝模拟的主流发展方向。最后,探讨了建立城市洪涝模型的建模机制、尺度、基础数据库的建立、更新和管理、地表与地下管网模拟并重等关键问题,分析认为精细化、与RS和GIS技术融合、注重时空过程和智慧服务是智慧城市背景下城市洪涝模拟发展的必然趋势。
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情景模拟视角下城市社区内涝灾害脆弱性分析 [J].
在极端天气频发的背景下,暴雨内涝灾害对城市社区产生破坏性影响,其形成危害与承灾体的脆弱性特征密切关联。本文选取西安市钟元社区为例,运用情景分析方法对不同排水条件下与重现期暴雨形成的灾害脆弱性进行模拟分析。研究结果表明:家庭灾损程度和影响范围与周边排水条件密切相关,借助脆弱性曲线和实地调查测算的家庭灾损率整体处于0~0.14之间,随着排水量的增大各重现期受影响的家庭数量出现不同增减变化趋势。研究对于构筑社区内涝事件情景分析和灾害脆弱性演化规律具有一定现实意义。
Vulnerability analysis of rainstorm waterlogging in urban communities based on perspective of scenario simulation .
在极端天气频发的背景下,暴雨内涝灾害对城市社区产生破坏性影响,其形成危害与承灾体的脆弱性特征密切关联。本文选取西安市钟元社区为例,运用情景分析方法对不同排水条件下与重现期暴雨形成的灾害脆弱性进行模拟分析。研究结果表明:家庭灾损程度和影响范围与周边排水条件密切相关,借助脆弱性曲线和实地调查测算的家庭灾损率整体处于0~0.14之间,随着排水量的增大各重现期受影响的家庭数量出现不同增减变化趋势。研究对于构筑社区内涝事件情景分析和灾害脆弱性演化规律具有一定现实意义。
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基于土地利用变化情景的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估: 以深圳市茅洲河流域为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201708271546 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近年来频发的暴雨洪涝成为威胁城市可持续发展的主要灾害类型，而土地利用变化改变了区域原有的景观结构和水文过程，是城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险加剧的重要诱因，定量探讨土地利用变化对暴雨洪涝灾害及其风险影响具有重要意义。以深圳市茅洲河流域为例，基于CLUE-S模型、SCS模型及等体积淹没算法等，对12种暴雨洪涝致灾-土地利用承灾情景下的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行定量模拟。研究结果显示，相同土地利用空间格局下城市暴雨洪涝灾害随暴雨致灾危险性增加风险加剧显著；在同等致灾危险性水平下随建设用地面积增加，中等风险和高风险区面积均呈现较为明显的增加趋势，中、高风险区面积与建设用地面积的增加率表现出较高的协同变化特征；以50年遇危险性水平为例，随着建设用地面积由基期的15368.85hm2增加至近期16076.07hm2和远期16750.89hm2，高风险区面积由254.07hm2增加至276.48hm2和286.2hm2。由此可见，尽管暴雨强度的增加是城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险加剧的根本诱因，但是以建设用地面积增加为表征的土地利用变化对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响不容忽视。;Recently, the frequent storm flood has become the main hazard in the coastal cities, which treats to the regional sustainable development. Land use change has transformed the original landscape structure and hydrological processes, and also becomes the significant factor to the increase of urban storm flood disaster risk. It is significant to discuss on the relationship between the land use change and the storm flood hazard risk. Based on the CLUE-S model, the SCS model and the equal volume submerged algorithm, this article took the Maozhou Watershed as the study area and quantitatively evaluated the storm flood disaster risk in the twelve interactional scenarios of the storm hazard and the hazard affected land use. Results showed that the urban storm flood hazard risk increased remarkably with the increased storm magnitude on a certain pattern of land use. While at the same level of the storm hazard, the areas of medium and high risk patches showed an obvious increasing trend with the increased construction land. The area increasing rates of high or medium level risk patches and the construction land were highly-related with the form of synergy. Take the recurrence interval of 50years as an example, the area of high risk patches grew from 254.07hm2 to 276.48hm2 and 286.2hm2 when the construction land area increased from the base scenario to short-term and long-term scenario, respectively. Therefore, even though the significant factor to the storm flood disaster risk is the storm magnitude, the influence of land use change characterized by the increasing of construction land on the storm flood disaster risk cannot be ignored.
Storm flood disaster risk assessment in urban area based on the simulation of land use scenarios: A case of Maozhou Watershed in Shenzhen City .https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201708271546 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近年来频发的暴雨洪涝成为威胁城市可持续发展的主要灾害类型，而土地利用变化改变了区域原有的景观结构和水文过程，是城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险加剧的重要诱因，定量探讨土地利用变化对暴雨洪涝灾害及其风险影响具有重要意义。以深圳市茅洲河流域为例，基于CLUE-S模型、SCS模型及等体积淹没算法等，对12种暴雨洪涝致灾-土地利用承灾情景下的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行定量模拟。研究结果显示，相同土地利用空间格局下城市暴雨洪涝灾害随暴雨致灾危险性增加风险加剧显著；在同等致灾危险性水平下随建设用地面积增加，中等风险和高风险区面积均呈现较为明显的增加趋势，中、高风险区面积与建设用地面积的增加率表现出较高的协同变化特征；以50年遇危险性水平为例，随着建设用地面积由基期的15368.85hm2增加至近期16076.07hm2和远期16750.89hm2，高风险区面积由254.07hm2增加至276.48hm2和286.2hm2。由此可见，尽管暴雨强度的增加是城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险加剧的根本诱因，但是以建设用地面积增加为表征的土地利用变化对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响不容忽视。;Recently, the frequent storm flood has become the main hazard in the coastal cities, which treats to the regional sustainable development. Land use change has transformed the original landscape structure and hydrological processes, and also becomes the significant factor to the increase of urban storm flood disaster risk. It is significant to discuss on the relationship between the land use change and the storm flood hazard risk. Based on the CLUE-S model, the SCS model and the equal volume submerged algorithm, this article took the Maozhou Watershed as the study area and quantitatively evaluated the storm flood disaster risk in the twelve interactional scenarios of the storm hazard and the hazard affected land use. Results showed that the urban storm flood hazard risk increased remarkably with the increased storm magnitude on a certain pattern of land use. While at the same level of the storm hazard, the areas of medium and high risk patches showed an obvious increasing trend with the increased construction land. The area increasing rates of high or medium level risk patches and the construction land were highly-related with the form of synergy. Take the recurrence interval of 50years as an example, the area of high risk patches grew from 254.07hm2 to 276.48hm2 and 286.2hm2 when the construction land area increased from the base scenario to short-term and long-term scenario, respectively. Therefore, even though the significant factor to the storm flood disaster risk is the storm magnitude, the influence of land use change characterized by the increasing of construction land on the storm flood disaster risk cannot be ignored.
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天津市城区暴雨沥涝仿真模拟系统 [J].https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2000.11.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A simulation system for heavy rainfalls in Tianjin City,including a numerical model system and an information system,is developed.The numerical model for heavy rainfall simulation,based on the theory of 2-D unsteady flow,is able to consider the variation of topography in urbanized area as well as the features of buildings.It can directly simulate the flooding in the urban area according to the rainfall information and realize the combination simulation of flooding on the ground and in drainage system.
The simulation system for heavy rainfall in Tianjin City .https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0559-9350.2000.11.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A simulation system for heavy rainfalls in Tianjin City,including a numerical model system and an information system,is developed.The numerical model for heavy rainfall simulation,based on the theory of 2-D unsteady flow,is able to consider the variation of topography in urbanized area as well as the features of buildings.It can directly simulate the flooding in the urban area according to the rainfall information and realize the combination simulation of flooding on the ground and in drainage system.
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| [16] |
多情景视角的上海中心城区地铁暴雨内涝暴露性分析 [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/S0955-2219(02)00073-0 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
<p>随着城市化水平的不断提高,包括上海在内的诸多特大城市地下空间被大量开发使用。在极端天气频发的背景下,城市地下空间设施的安全设防问题至关重要。以典型的地下空间设施——上海中心城区地铁为例,从多情景视角出发,分析评价了上海中心城区地铁暴露性整体状况。研究结果显示:上海中心城区地铁在暴雨内涝灾害中的暴露性程度整体水平不高;娄山关路3 号口和上海西站1 号口内涝暴露性水平较高,有18 个地铁出口处于中等暴露水平,20 个地铁出口在暴雨内涝灾害中的暴露性程度相对较小;总体而言,2 号线和11 号线暴露性最大,8 号线和10 号线暴露性处于中等水平,1、4、7、9 号线暴露性最小。研究结果可为地方政府改善内涝风险管理提供参考依据。</p>
Exposure analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on subway in central urban area of Shanghai based on multiple scenario perspective .https://doi.org/10.1016/S0955-2219(02)00073-0 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
<p>随着城市化水平的不断提高,包括上海在内的诸多特大城市地下空间被大量开发使用。在极端天气频发的背景下,城市地下空间设施的安全设防问题至关重要。以典型的地下空间设施——上海中心城区地铁为例,从多情景视角出发,分析评价了上海中心城区地铁暴露性整体状况。研究结果显示:上海中心城区地铁在暴雨内涝灾害中的暴露性程度整体水平不高;娄山关路3 号口和上海西站1 号口内涝暴露性水平较高,有18 个地铁出口处于中等暴露水平,20 个地铁出口在暴雨内涝灾害中的暴露性程度相对较小;总体而言,2 号线和11 号线暴露性最大,8 号线和10 号线暴露性处于中等水平,1、4、7、9 号线暴露性最小。研究结果可为地方政府改善内涝风险管理提供参考依据。</p>
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基于情景模拟的上海中心城区建筑暴雨内涝暴露性评价 [J].
Due to rapid urban development and land use and land cover changes, the waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting the safety of urban buildings and interior property.This study applied a simplified urban waterlogging model to simulating the inundated water depth in central urban area of Shanghai under different scenarios.And each building was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation depth.Finally, the exposure of buildings to rainstorm waterlogging in central urban area of Shanghai under different scenarios was analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that the warehousing and the old-style residence are the most vulnerable building types when exposed to waterlogging disasters.On the whole, Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District are the important regions for the government to carry out safety defense, Changning District and Hongkou District have medium exposure rank, and the waterlogging brings little effects in Huangpu District, Jing n District, Luwan District and Zhabei District.These results will provide references for the local government to improve waterlogging risk management.
Exposure assessment of rainstorm waterlogging on buildings in central urban area of Shanghai based on scenario simulation .
Due to rapid urban development and land use and land cover changes, the waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting the safety of urban buildings and interior property.This study applied a simplified urban waterlogging model to simulating the inundated water depth in central urban area of Shanghai under different scenarios.And each building was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation depth.Finally, the exposure of buildings to rainstorm waterlogging in central urban area of Shanghai under different scenarios was analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that the warehousing and the old-style residence are the most vulnerable building types when exposed to waterlogging disasters.On the whole, Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District are the important regions for the government to carry out safety defense, Changning District and Hongkou District have medium exposure rank, and the waterlogging brings little effects in Huangpu District, Jing n District, Luwan District and Zhabei District.These results will provide references for the local government to improve waterlogging risk management.
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基于情景模拟的居民住宅内部财产的水灾脆弱性评价 [J].
Disaster vulnerability study becomes the theme of research on disaster science and is gradually fused into social sustainable development strategy. On the basis of previous work at home and abroad, the vulnerability curves of property in residences were constructed in allusion to different income groups by the synthesis method. Based on assumptions for three flood scenarios, the spatial distribution was carried out by ARCGIS. Vulnerability distribution maps of Longhua town in Shanghai City were plotted. 〖JP3〗The results show that the method of vulnerability assessment is applicable, which can provide not only necessary information but guidance for Shanghai Municipal Government to improve flood management.
Vulnerability assessment of property in residences in waterlogging disaster based on scenario simulation .
Disaster vulnerability study becomes the theme of research on disaster science and is gradually fused into social sustainable development strategy. On the basis of previous work at home and abroad, the vulnerability curves of property in residences were constructed in allusion to different income groups by the synthesis method. Based on assumptions for three flood scenarios, the spatial distribution was carried out by ARCGIS. Vulnerability distribution maps of Longhua town in Shanghai City were plotted. 〖JP3〗The results show that the method of vulnerability assessment is applicable, which can provide not only necessary information but guidance for Shanghai Municipal Government to improve flood management.
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| [19] |
城市居民住宅的暴雨内涝脆弱性评估: 以上海为例 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.03.018 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近年来,在国际日益重视防灾减灾的背景下,脆弱性成为灾害学研究的主题并逐渐融入社会可持续发展策略领域。结合上海实际情况,针对不同收入水平的居民住宅,在建立各阶层标准居家模型的基础上,尝试利用合成法构造暴雨内涝中居民住宅损失的脆弱性曲线,针对"麦莎"台风这一历史典型内涝情景中受影响较大的天平街道,根据当时暴雨内涝积水分布的实际情景,利用GIS技术进行空间展布,得到天平街道居民住宅的脆弱性分布图。该方法可为市政部门提供必要的信息,为确定防灾减灾的重点区域和重点保护对象等决策提供科学的依据,可有效降低城市面临暴雨内涝的脆弱性及风险,实现城市的可持续发展。
The vulnerability assessment of residences in rainstorm waterlogging in cities: A case study on Shanghai .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.03.018 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
近年来,在国际日益重视防灾减灾的背景下,脆弱性成为灾害学研究的主题并逐渐融入社会可持续发展策略领域。结合上海实际情况,针对不同收入水平的居民住宅,在建立各阶层标准居家模型的基础上,尝试利用合成法构造暴雨内涝中居民住宅损失的脆弱性曲线,针对"麦莎"台风这一历史典型内涝情景中受影响较大的天平街道,根据当时暴雨内涝积水分布的实际情景,利用GIS技术进行空间展布,得到天平街道居民住宅的脆弱性分布图。该方法可为市政部门提供必要的信息,为确定防灾减灾的重点区域和重点保护对象等决策提供科学的依据,可有效降低城市面临暴雨内涝的脆弱性及风险,实现城市的可持续发展。
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洪水灾害脆弱性研究进展 [J].https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.01.006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
<p>洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一，洪灾经济损失及风险评估是防洪减灾领域的一项基础性工 作，而脆弱性的确定是评估模型的关键。文章在对自然灾害脆弱性评估方法总结的基础上，着重对洪水情景模拟中 代表脆弱性的灾损率曲线开展探讨，对灾损曲线的起源、建立方法和综合运用的趋势进行研究。国外保险业与政府 开展此类工作较早，相比于国外已经取得的丰硕研究成果而言，国内灾损率研究远远不能为决策提供有效的指导， 这与我国面临的巨大洪灾风险不相称。政府、保险等部门与科研工作急需结合起来，填补城市洪灾脆弱性研究空 白，多参数综合调研、深入各种承灾体内部系统而细致地开展灾损率调查，对于减少未来洪灾影响，具有非常重要 的实际意义。</p>
A review on development of vulnerability assessment of floods .https://doi.org/10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.01.006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要
<p>洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一，洪灾经济损失及风险评估是防洪减灾领域的一项基础性工 作，而脆弱性的确定是评估模型的关键。文章在对自然灾害脆弱性评估方法总结的基础上，着重对洪水情景模拟中 代表脆弱性的灾损率曲线开展探讨，对灾损曲线的起源、建立方法和综合运用的趋势进行研究。国外保险业与政府 开展此类工作较早，相比于国外已经取得的丰硕研究成果而言，国内灾损率研究远远不能为决策提供有效的指导， 这与我国面临的巨大洪灾风险不相称。政府、保险等部门与科研工作急需结合起来，填补城市洪灾脆弱性研究空 白，多参数综合调研、深入各种承灾体内部系统而细致地开展灾损率调查，对于减少未来洪灾影响，具有非常重要 的实际意义。</p>
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基于情景模拟的上海中心城区居民住宅的暴雨内涝风险评价 [J].
内涝是影响上海的主要灾害之一,上海城区居民住宅特别是旧式住宅容易因之受损乃至倒塌。基于情景模拟和指标体系方法,开展了上海中心城区住宅的风险评估。利用上海水务信息中心开发的内涝仿真模型,设置暴雨情景并对该情景下的内涝进行模拟,得到了区域水深分布状况,利用G IS技术求得每座住宅的水深,体现其在内涝中的暴露程度,并构造暴露性评价模型,综合反映区域总体暴露状况。根据旧式住宅较易受到影响的事实,构造脆弱性指数,最终衡量区域住宅面临灾害的整体风险状况,实现区域间居民住宅内涝风险的对比分析。设置了五十年一遇的暴雨内涝情景,针对中心城区各街道开展了实证研究,最终评价结果显示出的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和风险分布规律,与实际情况基本符合。该方法可以为市政部门提供必要的信息,提高内涝灾害的管理水平。
Risk assessment of rainstorm waterlogging on old-style residences downtown in Shanghai based on scenario simulation .
内涝是影响上海的主要灾害之一,上海城区居民住宅特别是旧式住宅容易因之受损乃至倒塌。基于情景模拟和指标体系方法,开展了上海中心城区住宅的风险评估。利用上海水务信息中心开发的内涝仿真模型,设置暴雨情景并对该情景下的内涝进行模拟,得到了区域水深分布状况,利用G IS技术求得每座住宅的水深,体现其在内涝中的暴露程度,并构造暴露性评价模型,综合反映区域总体暴露状况。根据旧式住宅较易受到影响的事实,构造脆弱性指数,最终衡量区域住宅面临灾害的整体风险状况,实现区域间居民住宅内涝风险的对比分析。设置了五十年一遇的暴雨内涝情景,针对中心城区各街道开展了实证研究,最终评价结果显示出的危险性、暴露性、脆弱性和风险分布规律,与实际情况基本符合。该方法可以为市政部门提供必要的信息,提高内涝灾害的管理水平。
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变化环境下城市水文学的发展与挑战: II. 城市雨洪模拟与管理 [J].
全球气候变化和快速城市化改变了城市水循环过程，加剧了城市暴雨洪涝问题。从城市雨洪模型构建的角度，回顾了降雨观测与预报技术、城市雨洪产汇流计算方法以及城市雨洪模型的发展历程，总结了各种技术的特点、适用性和局限性，指出城市雨洪模型在机理认识和数据管理方面的不足，提出了城市雨洪模型的概念性框架与基本流程。从雨洪资源化的角度，介绍了城市雨洪管理基本理念和策略，分析了城市雨洪管理的主要技术方案。阐明了城市雨洪模拟与管理的发展趋势及前景，未来应该强化高精度降雨观测和临近定量降雨预报能力，探索城市化流域的产汇流机理和响应机制，开发有效的城市雨洪模型系统，发展多源信息耦合技术，开展城市雨洪模拟预报及资源化利用研究，实现城市可持续发展以及保障城市水安全。
Development and challenges of urban hydrology in a changing environment: II. Urban stormwater modeling and management .
全球气候变化和快速城市化改变了城市水循环过程，加剧了城市暴雨洪涝问题。从城市雨洪模型构建的角度，回顾了降雨观测与预报技术、城市雨洪产汇流计算方法以及城市雨洪模型的发展历程，总结了各种技术的特点、适用性和局限性，指出城市雨洪模型在机理认识和数据管理方面的不足，提出了城市雨洪模型的概念性框架与基本流程。从雨洪资源化的角度，介绍了城市雨洪管理基本理念和策略，分析了城市雨洪管理的主要技术方案。阐明了城市雨洪模拟与管理的发展趋势及前景，未来应该强化高精度降雨观测和临近定量降雨预报能力，探索城市化流域的产汇流机理和响应机制，开发有效的城市雨洪模型系统，发展多源信息耦合技术，开展城市雨洪模拟预报及资源化利用研究，实现城市可持续发展以及保障城市水安全。
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基于情景模拟的城市内涝动态风险评估方法 [J].
该文建立了一套针对城市暴雨内涝灾害的定量风险评估方法。通过二维水力学模型模拟积水的时空分布,并采用基于国内实地调查获得的脆弱性曲线估算内涝灾害损失。以福建省龙岩市新罗区为例进行了内涝风险评估,模拟了该地区不同降雨情景下的内涝时空分布和灾害损失情况。结果显示:持续时间越长、重现期越长的暴雨导致的积水和经济损失越严重,但不同的暴雨导致的积水区域在很大程度上是一致的。通过不同雨水井分布情况下经济损失总量的估算,分析了雨水井对降低城市暴雨内涝风险的作用。结果表明:雨水井可以有效降低内涝风险,但应对短时强降雨的效果有限。
Dynamic urban waterlogging risk assessment method based on scenario simulations .
该文建立了一套针对城市暴雨内涝灾害的定量风险评估方法。通过二维水力学模型模拟积水的时空分布,并采用基于国内实地调查获得的脆弱性曲线估算内涝灾害损失。以福建省龙岩市新罗区为例进行了内涝风险评估,模拟了该地区不同降雨情景下的内涝时空分布和灾害损失情况。结果显示:持续时间越长、重现期越长的暴雨导致的积水和经济损失越严重,但不同的暴雨导致的积水区域在很大程度上是一致的。通过不同雨水井分布情况下经济损失总量的估算,分析了雨水井对降低城市暴雨内涝风险的作用。结果表明:雨水井可以有效降低内涝风险,但应对短时强降雨的效果有限。
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基于GIS的暴雨灾害电网脆弱性评估研究 [J].
根据电网的暴雨灾害形成机制,选取临海的DEM、河网、植被、财政收入以及电网资料等数据,建立孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力评估模型。以100 m×100 m的栅格为基本评估单元,建立各个影响因子的分布图,依据层次分析法确定相应权重,得到评估结果等级图。综合孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力,计算临海电网的脆弱性分布,在古城街道和大洋街道以及杜桥镇较高,而括苍镇和尤溪镇相对较低。
Vulnerability assessment of power grid baesd on rainstorm hazards .
根据电网的暴雨灾害形成机制,选取临海的DEM、河网、植被、财政收入以及电网资料等数据,建立孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力评估模型。以100 m×100 m的栅格为基本评估单元,建立各个影响因子的分布图,依据层次分析法确定相应权重,得到评估结果等级图。综合孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力,计算临海电网的脆弱性分布,在古城街道和大洋街道以及杜桥镇较高,而括苍镇和尤溪镇相对较低。
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暴雨洪水管理模型的城市内涝淹没模拟 [J].https://doi.org/10.11936/bjutxb2016120047 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为解决暴雨洪水管理模型(storm water management model,SWMM)无法模拟城市地表淹没过程的问题,提出一种改进SWMM的内涝灾害模拟方法.该方法通过改进SWMM模型的构建方式,将城市地表数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM)数据概化为水池并输入到模型中进行模拟,使得溢流水体可以沿着水池底部地形流动,并依据模拟结果和DEM数据计算出城市地表的淹没过程.通过实例对此方法进行了验证.研究结果表明:通过本文方法可以利用SWMM模拟出城市地表的淹没深度和淹没范围,实现了内涝灾害模拟,为城市内涝防治研究提供了参考依据.
Simulation investigation of urban waterlogging submergence on storm water management model .https://doi.org/10.11936/bjutxb2016120047 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
为解决暴雨洪水管理模型(storm water management model,SWMM)无法模拟城市地表淹没过程的问题,提出一种改进SWMM的内涝灾害模拟方法.该方法通过改进SWMM模型的构建方式,将城市地表数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM)数据概化为水池并输入到模型中进行模拟,使得溢流水体可以沿着水池底部地形流动,并依据模拟结果和DEM数据计算出城市地表的淹没过程.通过实例对此方法进行了验证.研究结果表明:通过本文方法可以利用SWMM模拟出城市地表的淹没深度和淹没范围,实现了内涝灾害模拟,为城市内涝防治研究提供了参考依据.
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巢湖流域洪涝灾害脆弱性评价研究 [D].Study on vulnerability assessment on flood disaster in Chaohu Basin . |
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变化环境下珠江三角洲地区暴雨内涝危险性时空演变研究: 以东莞市典型小区为例 [D].Research on spatiotemporal variability of urban water logging hazards in the Pearl River Delta under changing environment: A case study in a typical district, Dongguan . |
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江淮流域年极端降水事件分类特征及其致洪风险 [J].Classification of yearly extreme precipitation events and associated flood risk in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley . |
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城市自然灾害风险评估与实证研究 [D].Research of urban natural disaster risk assessment and case study . |
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基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险评估 [J].https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201005005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
自然灾害情景模拟与风险评估是灾害研究的核心内容和热点问题之一,但城市自然灾害风险评估至今却缺乏统一的程序与范式.本文选择了城市频发的暴雨内涝灾害为研究对象,结合上海市静安区实证研究,提出了一套基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估的思路与方法.基于灾害风险的基本理念,从致灾因子分析、脆弱性分析和暴露分析三方面入手,探讨不同情景下的小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险表达方式;提出了小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估宜采用情景模拟和综合分析方法,充分考虑城市的内部地形特征、降水、径流和排水等因素,创建一个基于GIS栅格的城市内涝模型,并基于多种重现期灾害情景,更客观地模拟内涝积水深度和淹没面积;采用多次实地调查获得的内涝损失数据,拟合出居民房屋和室内财产的灾损曲线;利用灾损曲线评估脆弱性、暴露要素和损失,建立超越概率-损失曲线,创建了基于GIS栅格城市暴雨内涝灾害的风险评估模型与范式,为制订城市暴雨内涝灾害风险管理和规划奠定了基础.这亦为进一步开展小尺度城市自然灾害情景模拟和风险评估研究提供了一种新探索.
Small-scale based scenario modeling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm water-logging .https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201005005 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
自然灾害情景模拟与风险评估是灾害研究的核心内容和热点问题之一,但城市自然灾害风险评估至今却缺乏统一的程序与范式.本文选择了城市频发的暴雨内涝灾害为研究对象,结合上海市静安区实证研究,提出了一套基于小尺度的城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估的思路与方法.基于灾害风险的基本理念,从致灾因子分析、脆弱性分析和暴露分析三方面入手,探讨不同情景下的小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害情景模拟与风险表达方式;提出了小尺度城市暴雨内涝灾害风险评估宜采用情景模拟和综合分析方法,充分考虑城市的内部地形特征、降水、径流和排水等因素,创建一个基于GIS栅格的城市内涝模型,并基于多种重现期灾害情景,更客观地模拟内涝积水深度和淹没面积;采用多次实地调查获得的内涝损失数据,拟合出居民房屋和室内财产的灾损曲线;利用灾损曲线评估脆弱性、暴露要素和损失,建立超越概率-损失曲线,创建了基于GIS栅格城市暴雨内涝灾害的风险评估模型与范式,为制订城市暴雨内涝灾害风险管理和规划奠定了基础.这亦为进一步开展小尺度城市自然灾害情景模拟和风险评估研究提供了一种新探索.
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变化环境下城市水文学的发展与挑战: I. 城市水文效应 [J].
全球气候变化和快速城市化导致的城市水循环过程变化是当前城市水文学研究的热点问题。为综合理解城市水循环演变过程，结合城市水文学的发展历程，剖析水循环过程对快速城市化进程的响应机制。总结了国内外城市化水文效应的主要成果，包括城市化对水循环过程、洪涝灾害、水生态系统以及水资源的影响。系统归纳了城市化水文效应的评估方法和技术手段。针对现有研究中的不足，指出变化环境下城市化水文效应研究面临的主要挑战及关键技术难题，提出未来研究的重点方向，如城市化降水效应的机理、不透水面的分布及有效性评估、城市化与水生态系统的响应关系与综合城市水资源管理及需水预测等。
Development and challenges of urban hydrology in a changing environment: I. Hydrological response to urbanization .
全球气候变化和快速城市化导致的城市水循环过程变化是当前城市水文学研究的热点问题。为综合理解城市水循环演变过程，结合城市水文学的发展历程，剖析水循环过程对快速城市化进程的响应机制。总结了国内外城市化水文效应的主要成果，包括城市化对水循环过程、洪涝灾害、水生态系统以及水资源的影响。系统归纳了城市化水文效应的评估方法和技术手段。针对现有研究中的不足，指出变化环境下城市化水文效应研究面临的主要挑战及关键技术难题，提出未来研究的重点方向，如城市化降水效应的机理、不透水面的分布及有效性评估、城市化与水生态系统的响应关系与综合城市水资源管理及需水预测等。
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基于多类模型耦合的城市洪水风险分析技术研究 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-0860.2013.07.033 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
基于城市洪水的特点，提出了简化的城市排水模型，并与SCS水文模型和二维浅水动力模型相耦合，建立了城市洪水风险分析模型。该模型能够模拟城市外洪、内涝或二者的组合，并以蚌埠市为例，开展示范研究，计算结果与实际情况相符，证明了模型的适用性.
Multi-models coupling based study on urban flood risk analysis technology .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-0860.2013.07.033 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要
基于城市洪水的特点，提出了简化的城市排水模型，并与SCS水文模型和二维浅水动力模型相耦合，建立了城市洪水风险分析模型。该模型能够模拟城市外洪、内涝或二者的组合，并以蚌埠市为例，开展示范研究，计算结果与实际情况相符，证明了模型的适用性.
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基于SWMM模型的城市洪涝过程模拟及风险评估 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.02.039 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以SWMM模型作为研究基础，建立了西安市沣西新城区洪涝过程模型，对由暴雨强度公式和芝加哥降雨过程线合成的不同重现期、历时120 min、雨峰系数为0.4的降雨情景开展洪涝过程及其风险评估研究。计算结果表明：该区域设计的排水管网可抵御3年一遇暴雨，但高于此重现期的暴雨会出现不同程度的内涝；溢流最严重的节点在重现期为T=10年暴雨中最大积水深约0.20 m，对城市影响程度不大，但在T=20年暴雨中最大积水深可达0.56 m，可引起严重灾情。根据积水深度模拟结果，可初步判断出在T=20年暴雨过程的特定时段（75~105 min）内，积水会导致以溢流节点为中心10 m范围内的行人和车辆失稳。
SWMM-based urban flood modelling and risk evaluation .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2018.02.039 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
以SWMM模型作为研究基础，建立了西安市沣西新城区洪涝过程模型，对由暴雨强度公式和芝加哥降雨过程线合成的不同重现期、历时120 min、雨峰系数为0.4的降雨情景开展洪涝过程及其风险评估研究。计算结果表明：该区域设计的排水管网可抵御3年一遇暴雨，但高于此重现期的暴雨会出现不同程度的内涝；溢流最严重的节点在重现期为T=10年暴雨中最大积水深约0.20 m，对城市影响程度不大，但在T=20年暴雨中最大积水深可达0.56 m，可引起严重灾情。根据积水深度模拟结果，可初步判断出在T=20年暴雨过程的特定时段（75~105 min）内，积水会导致以溢流节点为中心10 m范围内的行人和车辆失稳。
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Flood risk perception in flood-affected communities in Lagos, Nigeria [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1977-2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The widespread increase in flood hazards and the ensuing impacts have guided a change in approach to flood risk management especially in developed countries. This is based on the realisation that the integration of non-structural approaches to flood mitigation, for which the understanding of the social dimensions of flood risk is an important aspect, is needful. Flooding as a consequence of changing rainfall patterns and increased frequency of storm surges in the context of urban development has become a major risk in the coastal megacity of Lagos. The focus of flood management in the city has however largely been on structural measures with little attention directed to addressing the social processes which shape the vulnerability or resilience of flood-affected population. Risk perception is an aspect of the social construction of risk, the understanding of which is important in managing risks. The paper employs a combination of theoretical and non-theoretical methods including residents self-perceived vulnerability and concerns about flood risk, and the psychometric paradigm approach to examine perception of flood risk by residents in flood-affected communities in the city. Data were collected through the administration of a purposely designed questionnaire to 1000 residents in flood-affected communities in the period following two major flood events in the city which occurred in 2011 and 2012. The relationship between flood risk perception and socio-demographic characteristics of residents was also examined. The implications of findings of the study for flood risk management in the city are discussed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016
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Urban flooding in Lagos, Nigeria: Patterns of vulnerability and resilience among women [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.009 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We report findings from a mixed method study of women's gendered experiences with flash floods in the coastal city of Lagos, Nigeria. Drawing on narrative accounts from 36 interviews, a survey (n = 453) and 6 focus group discussions, we investigate the impacts of floods in general and specifically the July 2011 flood event on women's lives, livelihoods, and health. We draw on complementary perspectives from feminist political ecology and social vulnerability theory to understand the ways in which such events are perceived, experienced and managed by women of different socio-economic classes, households, and geographic locations. Thematic and content analyses were used to examine women's perceptions of floods, while descriptive statistical analysis and chi-square test were employed to compare actual impacts. Results show that women in general expressed no concern about gendered vulnerability to flooding as most believed flood impacts were gender neutral. This dominant view however, was not supported by evidence in the post-July 2011 flooding as impacts varied among income groups and neighbourhoods, and gender differences were apparent. Women in the low-income neighbourhood recorded higher impacts and slower recovery compared to other social categories of women and men. All impacts reported were statistically significant between women in low and high income neighbourhoods but most were not significant between women in middle and high income neighbourhoods. Gender relations and roles intersecting with place, class, employment status, and healthcare, were mediating factors that placed low-income women at greater risk of impacts than others. With climate change likely to induce more extreme events, a case is made for collaborative and institutional efforts to systematically boost urban poor women's adaptive capacity through targeted programmes aimed at alleviating poverty and improving women's access to housing, health care and alternative sources of livelihoods. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of "Serio" Valley [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.05.017 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative ( EDQ ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in erio Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk , respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.
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Flood risk analyses: How detailed do we need to be? [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9277-8 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-008-9277-8
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Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: Concept development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial luvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit??(GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial luvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards fluvial, pluvial and combined were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.
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A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard impact assessment in concepcion, Chile [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.077 URL PMID: 27810740 [本文引用: 3] 摘要
61The municipal spatio-temporal distribution of the impact to multiples hazards was tracked.61Fuzzy modelling allows flexible standardisation and aggregation by partial membership.61ArcGIS allows transparency, straightforward aggregation and flexible map combination.61In the studied period, municipalities increase its exposure and slightly reduces its sensitivity.61Wildfires and water scarcity shown to be most relevant hazards for all municipalities.
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Impervious surface coverage: The emergence of a key environmental indicator [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/01944369608975688 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Planners concerned with water resource protection in urbanizing areas must deal with the adverse impacts of polluted runoff. Impervious surface coverage is a quantifiable land-use indicator that correlates closely with these impacts. Once the role and distribution of impervious coverage are understood, a wide range of strategies to reduce impervious surfaces and their impacts on water resources can be applied to community planning, site-level planning and design, and land use regulation. These strategies complement many current trends in planning, zoning, and landscape design that go beyond water pollution concerns to address the quality of life in a community.
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A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1323-2016 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1)??likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2)??likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3)??likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.
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Urban flood simulation using synthetic storm drain networks [J].https://doi.org/10.3390/w9120925 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.04.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.
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Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: The MOVE framework [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
AbstractThe paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.
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Modeling urban floods and drainage using SWMM and MIKE Urban: A case study [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2455-1 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
To avoid the nuisance of frequent flooding during rainy season, designing an efficient stormwater drainage system has become the need of the hour for present world engineers and urban planners. The...
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Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: A case study of Jakarta [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1327-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Jakarta has suffered major floods in 2002, 2007, and 2013. To cope with and adapt to both the current and future flood problem, the city requires quantitative assessments of flood risk. In this study, we develop a flood risk assessment model for Jakarta. The model is based on the Damagescanner model, adapted for Jakarta using local information on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The model was first set up using existing estimates of economic exposure of different land use classes to represent exposure and depth-damage functions (vulnerability curves) from several existing studies in south-east Asia to represent vulnerability. Using these data to simulate damage led to an overestimation by several orders of magnitude. Hence, we held a series of expert meetings and workshops with local stakeholders to develop specific estimates of economic exposure per land use class and to derive vulnerability curves specific for Jakarta. We compare the resulting simulated damages to reported damages and found them to be in good agreement, giving confidence in the use of the model for flood risk assessment. Under current conditions, we found the annual expected damage due to river flooding in Jakarta to be approximately USD 321 million per year. We also examined the sensitivity of flood risk assessments to the use of different vulnerability curves. The sensitivity is high: using the six curves described in this study to simulate risk led to a factor eight difference between the lowest and highest values. Our findings demonstrate that flood risk assessments need to pay close attention to the selection, development, and testing of vulnerability curves.
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Flood risk assessment and mapping in peri-urban Mediterranean environments using hydrogeomorphology: Application to ephemeral streams in the Valencia Region (Eastern Spain) [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2011.10.009 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This paper proposes a methodology for mapping flood risk in ephemeral streams, based on assessing flood hazards and global exposure. The method has been applied to the peri-urban area of Valencia, extended over the floodplains of the Barranco del Carraixet and Rambla de Poyo catchments. Hazard was assessed using hydrogeomorphological methods. Global exposure was estimated as a combination between the economic value of land use and human exposure, following a previous study carried out by Camarasa, A.M., L pez, M.J. and Soriano, J., 2011. Mapping temporally variable exposure to flooding in small Mediterranean basins using land-use indicators, Applied Geography 31 (19), 136 145. Synthesis mapping was elaborated to spatially rank flood risks, in terms of their hazard and exposure components. The method is simple, effective and easily comparable. The results reveal diverse risk configurations for each floodplain, even though both are in the vicinity of Valencia city (metropolitan area). This flood risk mapping method is very useful for land use planning because it enables swift diagnosis of the nature of risks and can supports decision making by risk managers and urban planners.
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Disaster risk perception in urban contexts and for people with disabilities: case study on the city of Iquique (Chile) [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2698-x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
About 15% of the world population suffers from some kind of disability. In addition to experiencing high rates of poverty, exclusion and lack of access to education, employment, health care, legal support and other services, individuals with disabilities are disproportionately affected by disasters, recording a mortality rate two to four times higher than that of people without disabilities. These facts are not reflected in information surveys used in planning for disaster risk management in urban contexts. This study proposes an approach to characterize the population with disabilities within a risk perception framework using the city of Iquique, in northern Chile, as a case study. This research encompasses the following stages: first, a review of the social risk perception approach; second, a determination of exposure to natural hazards; third, the sample selection, survey design and implementation; fourth, the generation of four indices: (1) the overall or generic risk perception index; (2) the specific index for each of the identified hazards; (3) the anticipated behavior index; and (4) the local risk management index; and finally, the statistical analysis of the indices and the selected independent variables, emphasizing the disability factor. The study allowed us to estimate Iquique population with disabilities, the types of disabilities present and the characteristics of families with disabled members. Risk perception and disabled people represent new issues with high social value and deserve more attention from research, planning and response agencies.
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Applied hydrological modeling with the use of geoinformatics: Theory and practice [M]// |
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A parcel-based GIS method for evaluating conformance of local land-use planning with a state mandate to reduce exposure to hurricane flooding [J]. |
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Flood loss models and risk analysis for private households in Can Tho City, Vietnam [J].https://doi.org/10.3390/w9050313 URL [本文引用: 3] |
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Recent research approaches to urban flood vulnerability, 2006-2016 [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2869-4 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Abstract This study examines the research trend of urban flood risk assessment and investigates what methods and approaches have been changed and how these changes have improved our understanding on multi-dimensions of urban flood vulnerability. By reviewing a total of 318 peer-reviewed journal articles during the last 10 years (2006 2016) using bibliometric and content analysis, we observed that the physical vulnerability was the most popular concerns followed by the institutional vulnerability and social vulnerability. Moreover, we found that the planning and policy approach focusing on institutional vulnerability has the potential to link physical and social dimensions of flood vulnerability, facilitating the tight collaboration between applied sciences and social sciences. This study concluded that the continuous increasing number of the comprehensive approach to urban flood risk assessment offers evidence for a new paradigm shift toward a more inclusive way to understand multi-dimensional aspects of urban flood vulnerability across disciplines and different knowledge systems.
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Regional coastal flood risk assessment for a tidally dominant, natural coastal setting: North Norfolk, southern North Sea [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.05.003 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) provides two levels of coastal risk and vulnerability assessment, by combining information on the spatially variable hazard and exposure. In Phase 1, areas of greatest risk or `hotspots' are identified. In Phase 2, these hotspots are then analysed in greater detail to identify both direct and indirect extreme event impacts. This approach was applied to the barrier coastline of North Norfolk, eastern England. The CRAF identified high risk coastal hotspots on the basis of both hazard impacts (swash regime (tide + surge + wave runup) and overwash/terrestrial inundation regimes) from a 1 in 115 year return period storm and a range of land use, infrastructure, economic and social vulnerability indicators. Hazard extents and hazard severity, in some locations modified by the presence of intertidal saltmarsh, were calculated for 45, 1-2 km wide sections along the topographically complex coast. When combined with ve exposure indicators, eight hotspots were identified along the 45 km long frontage. In a 2nd phase, two of these hotspots, one a chain of small villages (Brancaster/Brancaster Staithe/Burnham Deepdale) and one a small town (Wells-next-the-Sea), were compared in more detail using a suite of coastal inundation and impact assessment models to determine both direct and indirect impacts. Hazards at this higher resolution were calculated using the 1D process-based XBeach model and the 2D LISFLOOD inundation model. Vulnerability to the hazards was calculated using the INDRA (Integrated Disruption Assessment) model with comparison of the two hotspots through the use of a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). The selection of hazard hotspots and comparison of hotspots using these techniques allows areas at greatest risk to be identified, of vital importance for coastal management and resource allocation.
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Enhancing river model set-up for 2-D dynamic flood modelling [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.009 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
61Correct representation of the flood-prone areas topography.61Getting from LIDAR data a computational grid feasible for a common computing power.61Interaction between hydrologic and hydraulic models.61Insertion of structures that can interact with the flow dynamics.
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A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.07.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
There is considerable research interest on the meaning and measurement of resilience from a variety of research perspectives including those from the hazards/disasters and global change communities. The identification of standards and metrics for measuring disaster resilience is one of the challenges faced by local, state, and federal agencies, especially in the United States. This paper provides a new framework, the disaster resilience of place (DROP) model, designed to improve comparative assessments of disaster resilience at the local or community level. A candidate set of variables for implementing the model are also presented as a first step towards its implementation.
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A blueprint for the integrated assessment of climate change in cities [R]. |
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Attribution of flood risk in urban areas [J].https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2008.054 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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A global exposure model for disaster risk assessment [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.05.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The Global Exposure database is being produced for the Global Risk Assessment 2013, part of the Global Assessment Report 2013 (GAR 2013). It aims to map at a granular geographical level the world07s capital stock in urban areas. It is designed primarily to assess the risk of economic losses as consequence of natural hazards at a global scale. The Global Exposure database for GAR 2013 (GEG-2013) is an open exposure global dataset at 5km spatial resolution which integrates population and country-specific building typology, use and value. It is currently suitable mainly for earthquakes and cyclones probabilistic risk modeling using the CAPRA platform (http://www.ecapra.org). This paper describes the development of the GEG-2013. The database is based on a top-down or “downscaling” approach of national/regional socio-economic and building type information. These information are transposed onto a regular raster dataset (grid format) using a geographic population distribution model as a proxy.
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Recurrent governance challenges in the implementation and alignment of flood risk management strategies: A review [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1491-7 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract In Europe increasing flood risks challenge societies to diversify their Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs). Such a diversification implies that actors not only focus on flood defence, but also and simultaneously on flood risk prevention, mitigation, preparation and recovery. There is much literature on the implementation of specific strategies and measures as well as on flood risk governance more generally. What is lacking, though, is a clear overview of the complex set of governance challenges which may result from a diversification and alignment of FRM strategies. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap. It elaborates on potential processes and mechanisms for coordinating the activities and capacities of actors that are involved on different levels and in different sectors of flood risk governance, both concerning the implementation of individual strategies and the coordination of the overall set of strategies. It identifies eight overall coordination mechanisms that have proven to be useful in this respect.
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Evolution of flood risk over large areas: Quantitative assessment for the Po River [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.043 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
The worldwide increase of damages produced by floods during the last decades strengthens the common perception that flood risk is dramatically increasing due to a combination of different causes, among which climate change is often described as the major driver. Nevertheless, the scientific community is increasingly aware of the role of the anthropogenic pressures (e.g. steady expansion of urban and industrial areas in dyke-protected floodplains) that may strongly impact the flood risk in a given area by increasing potential flood damages and losses (i.e. so called “levee effect”). The scientific literature on quantitative assessments of the “levee-effect” or robust methodological tools for performing such assessments is still sparse. We refer to the dyke-protected floodplains of the middle and lower portion of River Po (Northern Italy), a broad geographical area (6546,000km2) with two specific research questions in mind: (i) has the flood risk increased over the last half century? And, if so, (ii) what are the main drivers of this change? First, we assess the flood-hazard evolution by analyzing three long series of daily streamflow available at different gauging stations. Secondly, we quantitatively assess the temporal variability of the flood exposure and risk by looking at the evolution in time of anthropogenic pressures (i.e. land-use and demographic dynamics observed from 1950s). To this aim, we propose graphical tools (i.e. Hypsometric Vulnerability Curves – HVCs) that are suitable for assessing vulnerability to floods over large geographical areas. Our study highlights the absence of statistically significant trends in annual statistics of the observed streamflow series and a stable population density within the dike-protected flood-prone area. Nevertheless, the proposed flood-vulnerability indexes show a significant increase of the exposure to floods in residential settlements, which has doubled since the 1950s.
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Social vulnerability indicators in disasters: Findings from a systematic review [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.09.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Social factors are one of the most important causes of vulnerability of exposed communities to disasters. Until now, however, most studies have been done in the developed countries. Thus, the aim of this paper is to review the social vulnerability indices and their validity in disasters within the period 1985-2015 and to develop a suitable classification to make sense of social vulnerability indices in the Iranian context. This study took place in 2015. It used bibliographies, citation databases, and other available records to find an answer to the question of what are the valid social vulnerability indicators in disasters. It examined 43 peer-reviewed English and Persian language journals. Initially, it found 32 indicators and 150 variables, but it was possible to subsume them into a few valid social vulnerability indicators. These were gender, public health condition, public infrastructures and migration. They are the five top categories of social vulnerability that are most useful in the Iranian context. Most studies have been limited to measure social vulnerability index in natural disasters settings. Consequently, additional research is needed to develop the indices of social vulnerability in man-made disasters and to develop appropriate variable weighting schemes and valid indices.
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Spatial exposure aspects contributing to vulnerability and resilience assessments of urban critical infrastructure in a flood and blackout context [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2720-3 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Understanding, management and modelling of urban hydrology and its consequences for receiving waters: A state of the art [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.09.001 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Urban hydrology has evolved to improve the way urban runoff is managed for flood protection, public health and environmental protection. There have been significant recent advances in the measurement and prediction of urban rainfall, with technologies such as radar and microwave networks showing promise. The ability to predict urban hydrology has also evolved, to deliver models suited to the small temporal and spatial scales typical of urban and peri-urban applications. Urban stormwater management increasingly consider the needs of receiving environments as well as those of humans. There is a clear trend towards approaches that attempt to restore pre-development flow-regimes and water quality, with an increasing recognition that restoring a more natural water balance benefits not only the environment, but enhances the liveability of the urban landscape. Once regarded only as a nuisance, stormwater is now increasingly regarded as a resource. Despite the advances, many important challenges in urban hydrology remain. Further research into the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban rainfall is required to improve short-term rainfall prediction. The performance of stormwater technologies in restoring the water balance and in removing emerging priority pollutants remain poorly quantified. All of these challenges are overlaid by the uncertainty of climate change, which imposes a requirement to ensure that stormwater management systems are adaptable and resilient to changes. Urban hydrology will play a critical role in addressing these challenges.
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Integrated spatial flood risk assessment: The case of Zaragoza [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.002 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Flood-risk prevention measures are designed to reduce the adverse consequences associated with floods for humans, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity, as per the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC). An economic assessment of the risk provides advantages for the identification of single hazards. Policy makers thus receive relevant information on the sectors and places at risk. This article provides an integrated spatial assessment of the flood risk for human beings and for the residential, non-residential, agricultural and environmental sectors. The methodology used is applied to the city of Zaragoza and downstream municipalities in the Ebro river basin (Spain). The analysis emphasises that flood-risk assessment must account for two measures of risk. The first is the expected annual damage, which is used to prioritise locations and sectors for prevention. The second comprises damage-probability curves, which provide information on the distribution of the risks, taking into account whether they originate from frequent floods with slight consequences or from exceptional floods with major consequences. The spatial assessment of risk reveals how the risk is distributed between upstream and downstream cities. This opens up a discussion on the issue of equity in flood risk-sharing in spatially integrated analysis.
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A combined methodology for the hydraulic rehabilitation of urban drainage networks [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2015.1012839 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
During medium and high intensity storm events, urban drainage networks can rapidly reach their maximum capacity, and subsequently floods can occur. Owing to the non-linearity of the processes involved, it is evident that the return period of a rainfall is different from the return period of the generated overflows. Therefore, the assessment of the maximum overflow volume related to a given return period is a key element in the management of urban drainage networks, since it may cause problems to infrastructure and economic losses. In this paper, a combined methodology for the hydraulic rehabilitation of such networks is proposed, by expressing their hydraulic critical conditions in terms of overflow volumes rather than rainfall volumes and considering both observed rainfall data and synthetic hyetographs derived from statistical analysis. The first application of the proposed methodology to the sewer network of the Mesola Municipality is presented and commented on.
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Formulation of a fast 2D urban pluvial flood model using a cellular automata approach [J].https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2012.245 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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A nonstationary flood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.009 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Many current flood management policies and designs are based on an estimate of the 100-yr flood, an event that has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year. Existing methods to estimate the 100-yr flood, however, assume flood records are stationary even though multiple nonstationary factors, such as climate change and urbanization, influence measured hydrologic data. The goal of this study was to develop and apply a nonstationary flood frequency analysis method that accounts for multiple nonstationary factors. The method adjusts a measured flood record to urbanization and climate conditions for a future design year to account for the effects of changes in conditions from the year that each flood was measured to a selected design year. The method was applied to the Little Patuxent River in Guilford, Maryland, and the results showed a 30.2% increase in the 100-yr flood for the design year 2100. The developed method is intended to begin a discussion among engineers, scientists, and policy makers in regards to incorporating the issue of nonstationarity due to multiple factors into future policies and designs.
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Integrated risk assessment of water-related disasters [M]// |
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A GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment and delineation of a methodology for future risk assessment: Case study for Annotto Bay, Jamaica [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2920-5 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Flood risk assessments and damage estimations form integral parts of the disaster risk management in Jamaica, owing its vulnerability to hydrometeorological hazards. Although island wide damage and risk assessments have been carried out for major flood events in Jamaica, few studies have been conducted for the creation of damage and risk maps for vulnerable areas. In this study, a risk-based tool was developed by transferring a proven methodology for flood risk assessment in Flanders, called LATIS, to areas with limited data resources. The town of Annotto Bay was chosen as case study due to its vulnerability to coastal and riverine flooding. The model uses input parameters such as flood data, land use, and socioeconomic data and rainfall values to estimate the damage. The flooding of 2001, caused by tropical storm Michelle, as well as a storm surge with a 100-year return period, was input for the model in order to estimate damage from fresh and saltwater for Annotto Bay. The produced maps show the spatial variation of the damage costs, which correlates with the flood depths. The total calculated damage cost from the freshwater flood of 2001 in the study area was estimated just over USD 7 million. Saltwater damages were calculated at USD 30 million. Although validation of the exact damage costs was not possible, the damage spread and number of affected elements were accurate. The model output also shows the potential number of people who would be killed as a result of the event, which was calculated at only 2 casualties for freshwater. Since in reality no one died, this low estimate can be considered accurate. The casualties caused by the saltwater flooding with a return period of 100 years were estimated at 150 people killed. The results of this approach can be extended to other vulnerable areas of the island having topographical and geographical similarities and being affected by similar hydrometeorological events. Hence, the method allows damage assessment for data-sparse regions, aiding in planning and mitigation measures for flood-prone communities.
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Flood modelling for cities using cloud computing [J].
Urban flood risk modelling is a highly topical example of intensive computational processing. Such processing is increasingly required by a range of organisations including local government, engineering consultancies and the insurance industry to fulfil statutory requirements and provide professional services. As the demands for this type of work become more common, then ownership of high-end computational resources is warranted but if use is more sporadic and with tight deadlines then the use of Cloud computing could provide a cost-effective alternative. However, uptake of the Cloud by such organisations is often thwarted by the perceived technical barriers to entry. In this paper we present an architecture that helps to simplify the process of performing parameter sweep work on an Infrastructure as a Service Cloud. A parameter sweep version of the urban flood modelling, analysis and visualisation software “CityCat” was developed and deployed to estimate spatial and temporal flood risk at a whole city scale – far larger than had previously been possible. Performing this work on the Cloud allowed us access to more computing power than we would have been able to purchase locally for such a short time-frame (6521 months of processing in a single calendar month). We go further to illustrate the considerations, both functional and non-functional, which need to be addressed if such an endeavour is to be successfully achieved.
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Integrating household risk mitigation behavior in flood risk analysis: An agent-based model approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12740 URL PMID: 27893160 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
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A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world’s large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge...
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Integrating socio-economic analysis into decision-support methodology for flood risk management at the development scale (Scotland) [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2007.00086.x URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Legislation for Scotland increasingly requires that environmental enhancement schemes must be integral in property construction. With the introduction of the Water Framework Directive and the Water Environment and Water Services Act, developments on areas surrounding an existing watercourse often include river restoration and sustainable flood alleviation schemes. To support this, a decision-making tool is proposed that considers the hazard, exposure and vulnerability of a residential development to flooding. Rather than assessing flood risk purely in terms of hydraulic performance, it is shown that appropriate channel design selection also requires information on the socio-economic impacts. This paper takes a novel stance in predicting the social impact of flooding by using statistical evaluation of census data. This holistic approach to flood risk investigation is suitable for use by developers, planners and councils at a local (development) scale to strategically aid flood alleviation works, emergency planning and housing development.
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| [74] |
An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9732-9 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
AbstractTaiwan is located in an area affected by Northwest Pacific typhoons, which are also one of the most important sources of rainfall to the island. Unfortunately, the abundant rainfall brought by typhoons frequently produces hazards. In recent years, typhoons and floods have caused serious damage, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009. In this study, a probabilistic model is developed based on historical events which can be used to assess flood risk in Taiwan. There are 4 separate modules in this model, including a rainfall event module, a hydraulic module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Local data obtained from the Taiwan government are used to construct this model. Historical rainfall data for typhoon and flood events that have occurred since 1960, obtained from the Central Weather Bureau, are used for computing the maximum daily rainfall for each basin. In addition, the latest flood maps from the Water Resources Agency are collected to assess the probable inundation depth. A case study using the local data is carried out. Assessment is made to predict possible economic loss from different financial perspectives such as the total loss, insured loss, and loss exceeding probabilities. The assessment results can be used as a reference for making effective flood risk management strategies in Taiwan.
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Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1119-2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
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Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an agent-based model [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.242 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally.
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Natural and imposed injustices: The challenges in implementing "fair" flood risk management policy in Englan [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2007.00256.x URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This paper examines the challenges facing English flood risk management (FRM) policy and practice when considering fair decision-making processes and outcomes at a range of spatial scales. It is recognised that flooding is not fair per se: the inherent natural spatial inequality of flood frequency and extent, plus the legacy of differential system interventions, being the cause. But, drawing on the three social justice models - procedural equality, Rawls' maximin rule and maximum utility - the authors examine the fairness principles currently employed in FRM decision-making. This is achieved, firstly, in relation to the distribution of taxpayer's money for FRM at the national, regional and local levels and, secondly, for non-structural strategies - most notably those of insurance, flood warnings and awareness raising, land use control, home owner adaptation and emergency management. A case study of the Lower Thames catchment illustrates the challenges facing decision-makers in 'real life': how those strategies which appear to be most technically and economically effective fall far short of being fair from either a vulnerability or equality perspective. The paper concludes that if we are to manage flood risk somewhat more fairly then a move in the direction of government funding of nationally consistent non-structural strategies, in conjunction with lower investment decision thresholds for other local-level FRM options, appears to offer a greater contribution to equality and vulnerability-based social justice principles than the status quo.
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Assessment of social vulnerability to flood in urban Côte d'Ivoire using the MOVE framework [J]. |
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Preliminary flood risk assessment: The case of Athens [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9930-5 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
AbstractFlood mapping, especially in urban areas, is a demanding task requiring substantial (and usually unavailable) data. However, with the recent introduction of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), the need for reliable, but cost effective, risk mapping at the regional scale is rising in the policy agenda. Methods are therefore required to allow for efficiently undertaking what the Directive terms reliminary flood risk assessment, in other words a screening of areas that could potentially be at risk of flooding and that consequently merit more detailed attention and analysis. Such methods cannot rely on modeling, as this would require more data and effort that is reasonable for this high-level, screening phase. This is especially true in urban areas, where modeling requires knowledge of the detailed urban terrain, the drainage networks, and their interactions. A GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment methodology was therefore developed and applied for the mapping of flood risk in urban areas. This approach quantifies the spatial distribution of flood risk and is able to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to examine their influence on the overall flood risk assessment. It can further assess the spatially variable reliability of the resulting maps on the basis of the choice of method used to develop the maps. The approach is applied to the Greater Athens area and validated for its central and most urban part. A GIS database of economic, social, and environmental criteria contributing to flood risk was created. Three different multicriteria decision rules (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Weighted Linear Combination and Ordered Weighting Averaging) were applied, to produce the overall flood risk map of the area. To implement this methodology, the IDRISI Andes GIS software was customized and used. It is concluded that the results of the analysis are a reasonable representation of actual flood risk, on the basis of their comparison with historical flood events.
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A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100 URL PMID: 12792023 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.
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Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: Population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-011-0239-4 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
AbstractThe paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US$35 million (2005) to US$10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.
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Urban vulnerability, disaster risk reduction and resettlement in Mzuzu city, Malawi [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.03.010 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
For most developing countries at risk of disasters and climate change, adopting structural measures to reduce disaster risks remain a challenge. This paper presents findings of a study conducted through a mixed methods design in a flood risk city in Malawi, Sub-Saharan Africa. The study assesses the city's vulnerability to floods and actions being taken to reduce the risks. It then investigates how resettlement is being promoted as one such risk reduction measure. The study finds multiple vulnerability factors, including unsafe construction practices, poor drainage systems, unregulated solid waste disposal, institutional incapacity, inadequacy of land, settlements in high risk areas, deforestation, siltation of rivers and national disaster risk reduction policies that neglect urban areas. However, efforts to tackle underlying causes of vulnerability are wanting. One positive programme is a slum upgrading pilot project implemented by non-state actors that also lacks government support. In the case of resettlement, its planning and execution is fraught with multiple challenges emanating from haphazard planning and lack of community participation. The paper argues that the emphasis on resettlement is obscuring the key drivers of vulnerability, while simultaneously exposing both resettled and those left behind to further risks. It, therefore, calls for caution when planning and implementing disaster risk reduction policies that have the potential to create new forms of vulnerability to hazards or exacerbate them.
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Evaluation of flow speed in urbanized areas and flood hazard mapping in flood risk prevention schemes [M]// |
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Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.10.013 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.
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Piloting a social-ecological index for measuring flood resilience: A composite index approach [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.06.018 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Highlights A composite index is presented and piloted for measuring flood resilience. The use of PCA for weighing variables allows the index be adapted to different contexts. Results show the disparity between inner city wards and those on the urban fringe of the study area. Components are disaggregatable allowing for the identification of main drivers of flood resilience. Abstract Global increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events have raised concerns that traditional flood management approaches may not be sufficient to deal with future uncertainties. There is a need to move towards approaches that manage the resilience of the system to floods by understanding and managing drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Here we pilot an approach to measure the resilience of a system to a flood. A method is presented in which indicators are used to measure and map the spatial distribution of the levels of flood resilience across a landscape. Using three flood affected municipalities in South Africa, 24 resilience indicators related to floods and its relevant social, ecological, infrastructural and economic aspects are selected, and integrated into a composite index using a principal components analysis (PCA). A fifth component of institutional resilience is used to explore levels of disaster planning, mitigation and public awareness capacities and where these can be increased. The PCA transformed the 24 variables into four main components, the first of which was strongly correlated with underlying social variables, while the second and third correlated well with economic and ecological variables respectively. Distinct spatial variation of flood resilience was found across the study area, with highest flood resilience in main cities, and lowest in wards located on the periphery of cities often the location of peri-urban informal settlements. The disaggregation of underlying indicators showed wards with lowest flood resilience also had the lowest social, economic and ecological resilience. The flood resilience index was sensitive to the exclusion of all three components highlighting the importance of capturing the multidimensionality of flood resilience. The approach allows for a simple, yet robust index able to include an array of datasets generally available in flood prone areas with potential to disaggregate and trace variables for management and decision making.
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Probabilistic, multivariable flood loss modeling on the mesoscale with BT-FLEMO [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12650 URL PMID: 27612204 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Assessing urban vulnerability in the context of flood and heat hazard: Pathways and challenges for indicator-based analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1324-3 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Applying indicators in the context of vulnerability assessments is widespread but remains challenging for various reasons. This article focuses on quantitative estimates of urban vulnerability to...
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Adaptive and risk-based approaches to climate change and the management of uncertainty and institutional risk: The case of future flooding in Englan [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.007 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
This paper focuses on how scientific uncertainties about future peak flood flows and sea level rises are accounted for in long term strategic planning processes to adapt inland and coastal flood risk management in England to climate change. Combining key informant interviews (n=18) with documentary analysis, it explores the institutional tensions between adaptive management approaches emphasising openness to uncertainty and to alternative policy options on the one hand and risk-based ones that close them down by transforming uncertainties into calculable risks whose management can be rationalized through cost-benefit analysis and nationally consistent, risk-based priority setting on the other hand. These alternative approaches to managing uncertainty about the first-order risks to society from future flooding are shaped by institutional concerns with managing the second-order, nstitutional risks of criticism and blame arising from accountability for discharging those first-order risk management responsibilities. In the case of river flooding the poorly understood impacts of future climate change were represented with a simplistic adjustment to peak flow estimates, which proved robust in overcoming institutional resistance to making precautionary allowances for climate change in risk-based flood management, at least in part because its scientific limitations were acknowledged only partially. By contrast in the case of coastal flood risk management, greater scientific confidence led to successively more elaborate guidance on how to represent the science, which in turn led to inconsistency in implementation and increased the institutional risks involved in taking the uncertain effects of future sea level rise into account in adaptation planning and flood risk management. Comparative analysis of these two cases then informs some wider reflections about the tensions between adaptive and risk-based approaches, the role of institutional risk in climate change adaptation, and the importance of such institutional dynamics in shaping the framing uncertainties and policy responses to scientific knowledge about them.
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Waterlogging risk assessment based on self-organizing map (SOM) artificial neural networks: A case study of an urban storm in Beijing [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4035-y URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Due to rapid urbanization, waterlogging induced by torrential rainfall has become a global concern and a potential risk affecting urban habitant's safety. Widespread waterlogging disasters haveoccurred almost annuallyinthe urban area of Beijing, the capital of China. Based on a selforganizing map(SOM) artificial neural network(ANN), a graded waterlogging risk assessment was conducted on 56 low-lying points in Beijing, China. Social risk factors, such as Gross domestic product(GDP), population density, and traffic congestion, were utilized as input datasets in this study. The results indicate that SOM-ANNis suitable for automatically and quantitatively assessing risks associated with waterlogging. The greatest advantage of SOM-ANN in the assessment of waterlogging risk is that a priori knowledge about classification categories and assessment indicator weights is not needed. As a result, SOM-ANN can effectively overcome interference from subjective factors,producing classification results that are more objective and accurate. In this paper, the risk level of waterlogging in Beijing was divided into five grades. The points that were assigned risk grades of IV or Vwere located mainly in the districts of Chaoyang, Haidian, Xicheng, and Dongcheng.
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Assessing fluvial flood risk in urban environments: A case study [C]. |
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A framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas [J].https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13080787 URL PMID: 4997473 [本文引用: 3] 摘要
Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.
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Simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods in multiple typhoon scenarios: A case study of Yuhuan County, Zhejiang Province, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1238-2 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We propose a scenario-based method for simulating and mapping the risk of surge floods for use by local authorities concerned with public safety and urban planning in coastal areas. Focusing on the...
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Government support, social capital and adaptation to urban flooding by residents in the Pearl River Delta area, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.11.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
61Examine residents' adaptation measures against urban flooding based on larger -scale household questionnaire survey.61More than 90% residents take engineering or non-engineering measures to protect their private assets against flooding.61Government support significantly improved residents' adoption of adaptation measures.61Social capital operationalised as the combination of Hukou (citizenship) and job location positively associated with adoption of anti-flood measures.61Social capitals operationalised as number of blood relatives and friends in the same locality negatively associated with adoption of non-engineering measures.61It should build appropriate emergency response practices at community level in China given rapid urbanisation process.
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Dealing with hurricane surge flooding in a changing environment: Part I. Risk assessment considering storm climatology change, sea level rise, and coastal development [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1377-5 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Coastal flood risk will likely increase in the future due to urban development, sea-level rise, and potential change of storm surge climatology, but the latter has seldom been considered in flood risk
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Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations: A new generation of urban planning tools [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.009 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE Flood with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.
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Mapping urban risk: Flood hazards, race, & environmental justice in New York [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.08.002 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2137 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Truly understanding climate-related disaster risk, and the management of that risk, can inform effective action on climate adaptation and the loss and damage mechanism, the main vehicle under the UN Climate Convention for dealing with climate-related effects, including residual impacts after adaptation.
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Review article "Assessment of economic flood damage" [J]. |
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Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1033-2009 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual dam...
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Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings [J]. |
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A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde River, Germany [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9244-4 URL [本文引用: 5] 摘要
In this paper we develop a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach. This approach includes flood risks which are not measured in monetary terms; it shows the spatial...
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Ensemble machine-learning-based geospatial approach for flood risk assessment using multi-sensor remote-sensing data and GIS [J].https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1294113 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
2017 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. In this paper, an ensemble method, which demonstrated efficiency in GIS based flood modeling, was used to create flood probability indices for the Damansara River catchment in Malaysia. To estimate flood probability, the frequency ratio (FR) approach was combined with support vector machine (SVM) using a radial basis function kernel. Thirteen flood conditioning parameters, namely, altitude, aspect, slope, curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, topographic roughness index, distance from river, geology, soil, surface runoff, and land use/cover (LULC), were selected. Each class of conditioning factor was weighted using the FR approach and entered as input for SVM modeling to optimize all the parameters. The flood hazard map was produced by combining the flood probability map with flood-triggering factors such as; averaged daily rainfall and flood inundation depth. Subsequently, the hydraulic 2D high-resolution sub-grid model (HRS) was applied to estimate the flood inundation depth. Furthermore, vulnerability weights were assigned to each element at risk based on their importance. Finally flood risk map was generated. The results of this research demonstrated that the proposed approach would be effective for flood risk management in the study area along the expressway and could be easily replicated in other areas.
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Stormwater management and climate change: Vulnerability and capacity for adaptation in urban and suburban contexts [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1766-2 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract Managing stormwater under climate uncertainty is a concern in both built-out communities and those continuing to undergo land use change. In this study, a suite of climate change scenarios were developed to represent a probable range of change in the 10-year recurrence interval design storm. The Environmental Protection Agency’s Stormwater Management Model was used to predict flooding due to undersized drainage components within watersheds representing a traditional, built-out urban area and a developing suburban area with intact green infrastructure corridors. Despite undersized infrastructure and flooding in both study watersheds, the risk of property damage in the suburban watershed was negligible across the range of scenarios even at projected build-out, due in part to flood storage capacity of the green infrastructure network. Adaptation approaches – including pipe upsizing, underground storage, and bioinfiltration – and costs were also modeled in both watersheds. In the built-out site, bioinfiltration practices were predicted to moderate both flooding and total adaptation costs even when implemented over a relatively modest (10 %) portion of the watershed; however, a substantial upgrade to gray stormwater infrastructure (pipes and storage chambers) was also needed to mitigate impacts. In the urbanizing community, maintaining an intact green infrastructure network was surmised to be the most cost-effective approach for enhancing the resilience of urban stormwater systems to climate uncertainties and urbanization.
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An updated USACE approach to the evaluation of coastal total water levels for present and future flood risk analysis [J]. |
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Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.08.068 URL PMID: 26318682 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
61We develop a probabilistic method to assess future flood risk on a country-scale.61Urban expansion will drive large increases in flood risk in Indonesia.61Climate change amplifies coastal risk by 19–37%, its impact on river risk is uncertain.61Adaptation is effective and increasingly urgent, regardless of climate uncertainties.61Global data is used successfully for a probabilistic risk analysis, including adaptation.
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Assessment of urban vulnerability towards floods using an indicator-based approach: A case study for Santiago de Chile [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2107-2011 URL [本文引用: 2] |
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HAND contour: A new proxy predictor of inundation extent [J].https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10581 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Tools for accurately predicting environmental risks, such as the location and spatial extent of potential inundation, are not widely available. A dependence on calibration and a lack of available flood data have prevented the widespread application of existing hydrodynamic methods for predicting the extent of inundation. We use the height above the nearest drainage (HAND) terrain model to develop a simple static approach for mapping the potential extent of inundation that does not depend on flood observations and extends beyond methods for mapping low-lying areas. While relying on the contour concept, the method utilizes drainage-normalized topography and flowpaths to delineate the relative vertical distances (drop) to the nearest river. The HAND-delineated relative drop is an effective distributed predictor of flood potential, which is directly related to the river stage height. We validated the new HAND contour approach using a flood event in Southern Brazil for which high-resolution maps were available. The results indicated that the flood hazard-mapping method accurately predicted the inundation extent of the channel carrying the flood wave and the channels influenced by flooding. For channels positioned outside of the flood-wave area, the method overestimated the actual flood extent. As an original static assessment of floodwaters across the landscape, the HAND contour method could be used to map flood hazards in areas with poor information and could promote the development of new methods for predicting hydrological hazards. Copyright 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management [J].URL PMID: 28873257 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk‐based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision‐analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea‐level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean‐centric decision theory. Moving from a single‐objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.
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High-resolution multi-scale modelling of coastal flooding due to tides, storm surges and rivers inflows: A Cork City example [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.006 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
61New nested flood model is used to study dynamics of coastal flooding.61Coastal flooding results from a complex set of tides, storm surges and rivers inflows.61Modelling system comprises of two dynamically linked models: ocean model and coastal nested model.61Model is capable of resolving hydrodynamics at scales commensurate with flow features.61Urban flood model accurately determine flood wave propagation patterns and inundation extents.
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Flood risk assessment through 1D/2D couple HEC-RAS hydrodynamic modeling-A case study of Surat City, Lower Tapi Basin, India [C]// |
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The dilemma of spatial representation for urban hydrology semi-distributed modelling: Trade-offs among complexity, calibration and geographical data [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.019 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Semi-distributed models are widely used in urban hydrology, supported by the abundance and detail of geographical data. The inclusion of these data into hydrological models requires however an increasing complexity of the model structure with spatially distributed parameters, potentially driving to over-parameterisation issues. In this paper, different configurations and model structures, including an increasing quantity of geographical information, are tested for both water quantity and water quality on the widely used SWMM5 model for a 2.3km2 catchment. The Nash criterion is used to calibrate the model and compare alternative configurations. Results for water quantity modelling show that the inclusion of some basic geographical information, particularly on land uses, clearly improves performances, but further refinements are less effective. Uncalibrated models with sufficient land use information reach performances comparable with those of calibrated models. For water quality modelling (suspended solids concentration), the best modelling performance is obtained by a compromise solution with moderate spatial distribution of parameters: no spatial distribution drives to limited performances, while an excessive one to severe over-parameterisation. A comparison to suspended solids measurements realized on a single road of the catchment shows that parameters providing good performances at the catchment scale are a realistic, although non optimal, representation of local scale processes.
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Water-related risks in the area of Dakar, Senegal: Coastal aquifers exposed to climate change and rapid urban development [M]//Identifying emerging issues in disaster risk reduction, migration, climate change and sustainable development . |
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GIScience tools for climate change related natural hazards and modelling [M]// |
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Impact of climate change on disruption to urban transport networks from pluvial flooding [J]. |
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Waterlogging risk assessment based on land use/cover change: A case study in Pudong new area, Shanghai [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0431-8 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas due to rapid urban development and land cover changes has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting urban habitant lifelines and safety. This paper analyzed the impact of land use/cover change on the surface runoff and evaluated the waterlogging risk caused by precipitation with different intensities in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. A simplified urban waterlogging model has been built for the inundated water depth simulation through the combination of both SCS model and GIS spatial analysis with the consideration of underlying surface characters in urban area. Based on the simulated depth results, waterlogging risk ranks were further established to evaluate waterlogging risk of Pudong New Area under different conditions considering social survey results. The results show that the land use structure and pattern change increases surface runoff depth. Under the assumption of a daily maximum precipitation at 200 mm, the surface runoff depth increased by 13.19 mm from 1994 to 2006 due to urbanization. On the whole, Heqing, Huaxia tourism area, Chuansha, Tangzhen and Jichang Town have high waterlogging risk rank, Gaoqiao, Donggou, urban district, Jinqiao, Caolu, Sanlin and Beicai Town have medium waterlogging risk rank, and Zhangjiang, Gaodong and Huamu Town have low waterlogging risk rank. These results provide important information for the local government, and the method of waterlogging risk assessment can also be applied in other cities to provide guidance on waterlogging risk control.
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Physical flood vulnerability mapping applying geospatial techniques in Okazaki city, Aichi Prefecture, Japan [J]. |
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An indexing approach to assess flood vulnerability in the western coastal cities of Mazandaran, Iran [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.02.013 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
River flooding is a common natural disaster in the southern coastal strip of the Caspian Sea and is of great concern in cities in which the flood risk, mostly due to the high level of vulnerability, is significant. The principle aim of this study is to invent an indexing method for the assessment of vulnerability toward floods in the western coastal cities of Mazandaran Province, Iran. The developed indexing method assesses the vulnerability through identification and evaluation of effective criteria by scoring technique. These criteria are categorized into three indices (technical, socio-economic and population-environmental ones) and cover the factors of vulnerability toward floods, i.e. exposure, susceptibility and resilience. The method defines the flood vulnerability by a quantitative magnitude called relative vulnerability score and results in the vulnerability zoning of the area under assessment. The method was applied in Nowshahr (a city in Mazandaran) and the obtained results showed that: (1) the indexing method leads to a relative sense and an overall picture of the urban vulnerability toward floods, (2) the urban zones surrounded by two rivers, are in danger of a high level of the vulnerability, especially the first floors of the buildings, (3) it is necessary to review the location of the parking garage under construction, with regard to the flood vulnerability zoning. The flood vulnerability zoning was found to be in a good agreement with data obtained from field observation the flood that happened in Nowshahr in 2011 in terms of the damage.
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Developing an index model for flood risk assessment in the western coastal region of Mazandaran, Iran [J].https://doi.org/10.1515/johh-2017-0007 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Hydrological modelling of urbanized catchments: A review and future directions [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.028 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
In recent years, the conceptual detail of hydrological models has dramatically increased as a result of improved computational techniques and the availability of spatially-distributed digital data. Nevertheless modelling spatially-distributed hydrological processes can be challenging, particularly in strongly heterogeneous urbanized areas. Multiple interactions occur between urban structures and the water system at various temporal and spatial scales. So far, no universal methodology exists for simulating the urban water system at catchment scale. This paper reviews the state of the art on the scientific knowledge and practice of modelling the urban hydrological system at the catchment scale, with the purpose of identifying current limitations and defining a blueprint for future modelling advances. We compare conceptual descriptions of urban physical hydrological processes on basis of a selection of 43 modelling approaches. The complexity of the urban water system at the catchment scale results in an incomplete understanding of the interaction between urban and natural hydrological systems, and in a high degree of uncertainty. Data availability is still a strong limitation since current modelling practice recognizes the need for high spatial and temporal resolution. Spatio-temporal gaps exist between the physical scales of hydrological processes and the resolution of applied models. Therefore urban hydrology is often simplified either as a study of surface runoff over impervious surfaces or hydraulics of piped systems. Many approaches target very specific objectives and the level of detail in representing physical processes is not consistent. Based on our analysis, we propose a blueprint for a highly complex integrated urban hydrological model. We regard flexibility, in terms of model structure and data assimilation, as the key characteristic for overcoming these limitations. We advocate the use of modular, process-based approaches, which are flexible and adaptable to research needs. Higher complexity is inevitable, and higher uncertainty is a major consequence. Remote sensing data, measurable model parameters and new spatially-distributed calibration techniques might help to reduce uncertainties.
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An RS-GIS-Based comprehensive impact assessment of floods: A case study in Madeira River, Western Brazilian Amazon [J].https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2017.2726524 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Geographical information systems-based methods can be handled as powerful tools in assessing and quantifying impacts and, thus, supporting strategies for disaster risk reduction (DRR). This is particularly relevant on scenarios of global climate change and intensified increased human interventions on riverine systems. The Madeira River in Porto Velho city (Brazilian Amazon) is a good example of susceptible area to both of these factors. We take advantage of the 2014 flood, the largest recorded for this region, for combining remote sensing and geographic information system with socio, health, and infrastructure data to quantify spatially the flood impacts. Using high resolution airborne images, we applied a machine learning classification algorithm for detecting urban areas. Our results show that at the flood extent related to the highest river level at least 0.65 km of urban area, 87 km of urban streets, four public schools, and two public health units were affected. More than 16,800 people suffered the impacts directly, and children represented 29.7% of them. Based on registered data, it was quantified that the city registered more than 20 cases of leptospirosis and the truck flow on the region decreased up to 92%. The spatially-explicit results of this letter are potential to guide strategies aiming to support decision-making for DRR.
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Flood risk management: Hazards, vulnerability and mitigation measures [M]. Vol. |
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Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy) [J].https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-2149-2015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low lying areas. The study site is the Emilia-Romagna Region coastline (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (Total Water Level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and >100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost-Distance tool of ArcGIS庐 to a high resolution Digital Terrain Model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-as-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata based SLEUTH model. The results show that, if the urban growth is compact-like, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-as-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identify flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.
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Assessing future risk: Quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island, New York [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0159-8 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
To the Editors, Natural Hazards : At its western tip, Long Island meets Manhattan Island, at a place called The Battery. There is an excellent GLOSS-LTT tide gauge, there which has been measuring sea levels since 1856. Due to local land subsidence, sea level is rising faster at The Battery than at 85% of the other GLOSS-LTT tide gauges in the world, but the rate of rise has been nearly constant for over a century, at 2.7702±020.0902mm/year (9502% CI). About 3202km away, at Kings Point, on the north shore of Long Island, there is another good GLOSS-LTT tide gauge, which has been measuring sea level since 1931. Sea level there has been rising at only 2.3502±020.2402mm/year. Despite over 2/3 century of major anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, these tide gauges have measured no statistically significant increase in the rate of sea level rise. The same thing is true at most other tide gauges around the world. In fact, the best and most comprehensive analyses of sea level measured by tide gauges around the worl ...
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Recent trends in U.S. flood risk [J].
Flooding is projected to become more frequent as warming temperatures amplify the atmosphere's water holding capacity and increase the occurrence of extreme precipitation events. However, there is still little evidence of regional changes in flood risk across the USA. Here we present a novel approach assessing the trends in inundation frequency above the National Weather Service's four flood level categories in 2042 catchments. Results reveal stark regional patterns of changing flood risk that are broadly consistent above the four flood categories. We show that these patterns are dependent on the overall wetness and potential water storage, with fundamental implications for water resources management, agriculture, insurance, navigation, ecology, and populations living in flood-affected areas. Our findings may assist in a better communication of changing flood patterns to a wider audience compared with the more traditional approach of stating trends in terms of discharge magnitudes and frequencies.
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Spatio-temporal population modelling for enhanced assessment of urban exposure to flood risk [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-014-9110-6 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
There is a growing need for high resolution spatio-temporal population estimates which allow accurate assessment of population exposure to natural hazards. Current approaches to population estimation...
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Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans' interaction [J].URL PMID: 5228191 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Raising interest in the interaction between humans and climate drivers to understand the past and current development of floods in urbanised landscapes is of great importance. This study presents a regional screening of land-use, rainfall regime and flood dynamics in north-eastern Italy, covering the timeframe 1900 2010. This analysis suggests that, statistically, both climate and land-use have been contributing to a significant increase of the contribution of short duration floods to the increase in the number of flooded locations. The analysis also suggests that interaction arises, determining land-use dynamics to couple with climatic changes influencing the flood aggressiveness simultaneously. Given that it is not possible to control the climatic trend, an effective disaster management clearly needs an integrated approach to land planning and supervision. This research shows that land management and planning should include the investigation of the location of the past and future social and economic drivers for development, as well as past and current climatic trends.
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A multi-scale framework for flood risk analysis at spatially distributed locations [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12175 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要
Abstract This paper presents a multi-scale framework for flood risk analysis from fluvial and coastal sources at broad (including national) scales. The framework combines an extreme value spatial model of fluvial and coastal flood hazards using the Heffernan and Tawn (2004) conditional dependence model, with a new Markov approach to representing the spatial variability of flood defences. The nested multi-scale structure enables spatial and temporal dependence at a national scale to be combined with detailed local analysis of inundation and damage. By explicitly considering each stage of the process, potential uncertainties in the risk estimate are identified and can be communicated to end users to encourage informed decision making. The framework is demonstrated by application to an insurance portfolio of static caravan sites across the UK worth over 2bn. In the case study the largest uncertainties are shown to derive from the spatial structure used in the statistical model and limited data on flood defences and receptor vulnerability.
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Ocean tide modelling for urban flood risk assessment in the Mekong Delta [J].https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.10.21 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.02.040 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
Governing climate change in cities entails a good understanding of urban vulnerabilities. This research presents an Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment for 571 European cities. Basing on panel data from Urban Audit database and a set of newly developed indicators, we assessed urban vulnerabilities for the following impact chains : (i) heatwaves on human health; (ii) drought on water planning, and; (iii) flooding (sub-divided into pluvial, fluvial and coastal) on the socio-economic tissue and the urban fabric. Results shed light on the key challenges that specific groups of European cities face in order to better deal with the expected impacts of climate change. This knowledge is a necessary step to advance in the understanding of urban risks to climate change and the development of effective EU policies for urban adaptation.
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Flood inundation modelling: A review of methods, recent advances and uncertainty analysis [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.01.006 URL [本文引用: 5] 摘要
61This paper reviews state-of-the-art flood inundation models.61It explores their advantages and limitations.61It highlights the most recent advances and discusses future directions.61It addresses how uncertainty is analysed and identifies opportunities for handling it better.
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Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 [J]. |
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GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: A case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2008.01067.x URL PMID: 18513310 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Linking community knowledge with modern techniques to record and analyse risk related data is one way of engaging and mobilising community capacity. This paper discusses the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) at the local level and the need for integrating modern technology and indigenous knowledge into disaster management. It suggests a way to mobilise available human and technical resources in order to strengthen a good partnership between local communities and local and national institutions. The paper also analyses the current vulnerability of two communes by correlating hazard risk and loss/damage caused by disasters and the contribution that domestic risk maps in the community can make to reduce this risk. The disadvantages, advantages and lessons learned from the GIS flood risk mapping project are presented through the case study of the Quang Tho Commune in Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam.
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A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science [J].https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100 URL PMID: 12792023 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented.
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Holistic approach to flood risk assessment in areas with cultural heritage: A practical application in Ayutthaya, Thailan [D][J]. |
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Flood risk assessment and coping capacity of floods in central Vietnam [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2016.06.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
In the perspective of improving and disseminating risk assessment methodologies and rise preparedness of people to flood hazard this paper presents flood hazard maps estimated in the Quang Ngai province, in central Vietnam, for different return periods in terms of depth, duration and velocity using the FLO-2D, hydrodynamic model with a 90 m x 90 m resolution grid. Then, based on the vulnerability functions determined from field surveys and the feedback to 400 questionnaires distributed to people regarding residential areas, paddy rice, road networks and the number of deaths and injuries, the total amount of tangible and intangible damage at each point in the study area is estimated and mapped, indicating risk levels and expected annual damage in case of flooding.The resulting damage functions are quite different from others available in the literature, as a result of the adaptive capacity and the resilience of the population to floods in the investigated area. Damage functions to buildings, agricultural areas, road infrastructures and people are normalised with respect to mean flooding depth and flooding hazard so that they can be generalised to areas with similar geographical conditions. In this way, a more comprehensive knowledge on the negative effects of floods is carried out, providing an important input to flood management plans in order to mitigate flood damage in tropical areas similar to the Quang Ngai province.
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Multi-variate residential flood loss estimation model for Jakarta: An approach based on a combination of statistical techniques [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2716-z URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Jakarta has endured a series of devastating floods in 2002, 2007 and 2013. In the wake of climate change and complex interaction with diverse socio-economic factors, the flood situation in Jakarta will exacerbate from bad to worse. The city requires quantitative evaluation of flood risk to adapt to the changes arising from both existing and future flooding. Consequently, in this study a comprehensive multi-variate residential flood loss estimation model was developed. The model was developed from the outcome of extensive household surveys performed in the aftermath of the 2013 January floods. In addition, a novel procedure for classifying the flood loss into homogenous groups is proposed and implemented on the data from Jakarta. The proposed approach employed principal component analysis supplemented with correlation analysis and mutual information in identifying the factors that can capture the homogeneity in flood damage and loss data. The identified factors are then used as inputs for cluster analysis to for grouping the data into homogenous groups. Depth-damage curves were developed for these groups. The novel approach for demarcating flood loss data produced groups which showed significant reduction in damage variability and improved loss prediction within the surveyed dataset. Further, a scaled flood loss estimation model was developed which quantified the effect of mitigation measures on flood damage and loss.
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| [139] |
Flood hazard risk assessment model based on random forest [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.008 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Floods, natural disasters that occur worldwide, have become more and more frequent in recent decades. Flooding is often unavoidable and unexpected; however, it can be controlled through appropriate measures to minimize losses and damage. Flood hazard risk assessment, a holistic approach that involves numerous evaluation indices in river catchments, is an increasingly effective and sustainable practice, but the complicated, non-linear relationship between evaluation indices and risk levels pose a significant challenge to accurate assessment. An intelligent learning machine called random forest (RF) can run efficiently on large databases and provide estimates regarding the importance of specific variables in the classification. This lends RF a considerable advantage in solving the non-linear problems inherent to risk assessment, as well as estimating the importance degree of each index. As such, in this study, an assessment model based on RF was adopted to evaluate regional flood hazard risk. The proposed flood hazard risk assessment method was implemented in Dongjiang River Basin, China. Eleven risk indices were selected and five thousand samples were created for training and testing. The support vector machine (SVM) was used for risk assessment as a comparison, as well as an analysis of index importance degree. Results show that (1) both the training and testing error rate of RF can be reduced by increasing the sample size and the number of classification trees, (2) the higher and highest-risk zones occupy approximately 19.09% of the total, and are primarily located in Baoan, Longgang, Huiyang, Huidong, the western area of Boluo, and the southern part of Dongguang, and (3) the indices maximum three-day precipitation (M3PD), runoff depth (RD), typhoon frequency (TF), digital elevation model (DEM), and topographic wetness index (TWI) are the top five most important out of the eleven risk indices, occupying 71.11% of the total risk; but normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), stream power index (SPI), soil texture (ST), distance to the river (DR), slope (SL), and land use pattern (LUP) indices are less consequential, at only 28.89%. This study shows the potential to provide a novel and highly successful approach to flood hazard risk assessment. Evaluation results provide a reference for flood risk management, prevention, and reduction of natural disasters in the study basin.
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| [140] |
Assessing vulnerability: An integrated approach for mapping adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1642-0 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Making decisions and efficiently allocating resources to reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities requires, among other things, an understanding of the factors that make a society vulnerable...
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Land use, water management and future flood risk [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.08.019 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Human activities have profoundly changed the land on which we live. In particular, land use and land management change affect the hydrology that determines flood hazard, water resources (for human and environmental needs) and the transport and dilution of pollutants. It is increasingly recognised that the management of land and water are inextricably linked (e.g. Defra, 2004). “Historical context, state of the science and current management issues” section of this paper addresses the science underlying those linkages, for both rural and urban areas. In “Historical context, state of the science and current management issues” section we discuss future drivers for change and their management implications. Detailed analyses are available for flood risk, from the Foresight Future Flooding project (Evans et al., 2004a,b) and other recent studies, and so we use flooding as an exemplar, with a more limited treatment of water resource and water quality aspects. Finally in “Science needs and developments” section we discuss science needs and likely progress. This paper does not address the important topic of water demand except for some reference to the Environment Agency's Water Resources Strategy for England and Wales (Environment Agency, 2009).
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| [142] |
Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise [J].https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12855 URL PMID: 24305147 [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.
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| [143] |
Climate-related flood risks and urban responses in the Pearl River Delta, China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0651-7 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Growing concern on climate-related flood hazards has led to increasing interest in understanding the interactions between climate, flood, and human responses. This paper jointly investigates climate change trends, impacts on flood events, flood vulnerability and risk, and response strategies in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a rapidly urbanizing coastal area in southeast China. Our analysis based on a reanalysis dataset and model projections are integrated with literature results, which indicates a climate scenario of increasing mean temperature, precipitation, sea level, typhoon intensity, and the frequency of extreme weather events in the PRD. These trends, together with the continuing urbanization in flood-prone areas, are expected to increase flood frequency and aggravate both the scale and degree of flooding in the PRD area. We further estimate the flood vulnerability of the 11 PRD cities using the indicator system method. The results suggest that the exposure and sensitivity of central cities (Hong Kong, Macao, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou) are very high because of highly exposed populations and assets located in lowland areas. However, the potential vulnerability and risk can be low due to high adaptive capacities (both by hard and soft flood-control measures). A novel framework on flood responses is proposed to identify vulnerable links and response strategies in different phases of a flood event. It further suggests that the flood risks can be mitigated by developing an integrated climate response strategy, releasing accurate early warning and action guidance, sharing flood-related information, and applying the advantages of online social network analysis.
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| [144] |
Flash flood warnings using the ensemble precipitation forecasting technique: A case study on forecasting floods in Taiwan caused by typhoons [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.028 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
A flash flood is an event that develops rapidly. Given early warnings with sufficient lead time, flood forecasting can help people prepare disaster prevention measures. To provide this early warning, a statistics-based flood forecasting model was developed to evaluate the flooding potential in urban areas using ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment, TAPEX). The proposed model uses different sources of information, such as (i) the designed capacity of storm sewer systems, (ii) a flood inundation potential database, and (iii) historical flooding observations, to evaluate the potential for flash flooding situations to occur. Using 24-, 48- and 72-h ahead precipitation forecasts from the TAPEX, the proposed model can assess the flooding potential with two levels of risk and at the township scale with a 3-day lead time. The proposed model is applied to Pingtung County, which includes 33 townships and is located in southern Taiwan. A dataset of typhoon storms from 2010 to 2014 was used to evaluate the model performance. The accuracy and threat score for testing events are 0.68 and 0.30, respectively, with a lead time of 24h. The accuracy and threat score for training events are 0.82 and 0.31, respectively, with a lead time of 24h. The model performance decreases when the lead time is extended. However, the model demonstrates its potential as a valuable reference to improve emergency responses to alleviate the loss of lives and property due to flooding.
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| [145] |
A review of advances in urban flood risk analysis over China [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0939-7 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
China urban environments are particularly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change and rapid urbanization. Study of the urban flood risk analysis has significantly increased over the past decade, and this paper therefore reviews the main results (i.e. theoretical basis, methods, techniques, case studies) obtained in the literature from China. We focus on the following topics: (1) urban flood hazard analysis, (2) exposure and vulnerability analysis, and (3) urban flood risk assessment. Recent advances made in the research area are presented with suggestions for further research to improve the availability and reliability of urban flood risk analysis.
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| [146] |
Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging [J].https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-011-0844-7 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hot-spots in disaster research.However,up until now,urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes.This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research,which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China.As an example,we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing'an District of Shanghai.Based on the basic concept of disaster risk,this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods.Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure,we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments.A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model,an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model,was applied to simulate inundation area and depth.Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys,which were further applied to analyse vulnerability,exposure and loss assessment.Finally,the ex-ceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities.A framework was also devel-oped for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss.This is a new explora-tion for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.
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| [147] |
Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.031 URL [本文引用: 4] 摘要
Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation measures. A Danish case study indicates that the introduced framework presented in the paper can be considered as an important decision support tool that can supplement and further develop existing decision practices in relation to urban drainage.
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Flood risk index as an urban management tool [C]. |
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