Urban expansion simulation and analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
LIU Cuiling1, LONG Ying2
1. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100835, China
2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China
In order to predict future urban layout in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), we developed a BUDEM-JJJ model on the basis of the Beijing urban development model (BUDEM). BUDEM, based on prevalent urban growth theory and constrained cellular automatic, was developed in 2008 for analyzing and simulating urban growth for the Beijing Metropolitan Area(BMA). It is proved that the model is capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China. In this research, we extended the study of BUDEM from the BMA to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), via replacing the datasets of the model and making necessary adjustments to the parameters. In BUDEM-JJJ, the parameters include minimum distance to the center of Beijing ( f_ctr_bj), minimum distance to the centers of Tianjin and Shijiazhuang (f_ctr_tjsjz), minimum distance to the centers of prefecture-level cities of Hebei province ( f_ctr_other), minimum distance to the centers of other urban areas ( f_ctr_cty), minimum distance to railways ( f_rail), minimum distance to highways ( f_r_hig), minimum distance to national roads ( f_r_nat), minimum distance to provincial roads ( f_r_pro), location in or outside areas prohibited for construction (constrain), and neighborhood development intensity (neighbor). The model BUDEM-JJJ was used to identify urban growth mechanisms in two historical phases from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010, to simulate urban growth scenarios for 2049. Six urban growth scenarios were put forward, including the base (business as usual) scenario, high-speed growth scenario, low-speed growth scenario, highway finger-shaped growth scenario, small cities and towns promoting growth scenario, and transportation-led growth scenario. BUDEM-JJJ considers the heterogeneity of driving force and model parameters, and fulfills accurate simulation in large-scale. Using the model urban layout can be predicted for each scenario. From the number of increased cellular and the occupation of farmland, grassland, forestland, and unused land, we found that the different scenarios have different effects on the environment. BUDEM-JJJ is the first applicable urban growth model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. These scenarios can be applied in several planning projects and also can be used to evaluate the present urban growth rate.
cellular automata; BUDEM-JJJ; urban expansion; simulation; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
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In the paper, the Progress in the spatial dynamic city model based on CA (cellular automata) model is reviewed and the new developed CEM model (City Expanding Model in Metropolitan area) with its primary simulation and prediction result in Beijing is introduced. It can be seen that the “bottom-up” dynamic city model based on the individual unit interaction show the last direct of the current spatial city model. At present, it is significant to develop the spatial dynamic city model based on CA and study on the city expanding in metropolitan area in China both in theory and practice.
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University; Institute of Resources Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875,China
龙瀛, 韩昊英, 毛其智. 2009. 利用约束性CA制定城市增长边界[J]. , 64(8): 999-1008. [LongY, Han HY, Mao QZ. 2009. Establishing urban growth boundaries using constrained CA[J]. , 64(8): 999-1008. ]
As an effective tool to curb urban sprawl, UGBs (urban growth boundaries) have been paid worldwide attention. According to the implementation mechanism, which is similar to their counterparts in Western countries, the planning urban construction boundaries can be defined as the Chinese UGBs, safeguarded by the latest Town and Country Planning Act enacted in 2008. There are quite a few examples in establishing UGBs. However, the determination of UGBs has not been based on sound scientific analysis in the previous cases. Especially, quantitative analysis was insufficient in the process of determining the boundaries. In this paper, the methodology of constrained CA (cellular automata) was introduced to support the establishment of the UGBs. Compared with traditional methods of establishing UGBs, constrained CA took into account more factors related to urban growth, and could make effective spatio-temporal dynamic simulation influenced by various urban development policies. Taking a case s...更多tudy of Beijing municipal area, we developed the UGBs in the central city, new cities and small towns. The results showed that there was large difference between the urban growth pattern simulated through constrained CA and that projected in the urban master plan. Consequently, the UGBs could be improved according to the simulation result based on constrained CA.
1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China; 3. College of Public Administration, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310029, China
龙瀛, 沈振江, 毛其智, 等. 2010. 基于约束性CA方法的北京城市形态情景分析[J]. , 65(6): 643-655. [LongY, Shen ZJ, Mao QZ, et al. 2010. Form scenario analysis using constrained cellular automata[J]. , 65(6): 643-655. ]
Scenario analysis has been widely applied in the realm of urban and regionalplanning. In most of current scenario analysis researches of urban growth, developing policiesare set as the input scenario conditions to generate various urban forms, which can bereferenced by policy makers and urban planners. This paper reverses the line of currentscenario analysis for urban growth, in which the term of form scenario analysis (FSA), aspatial explicit approach, is novelly defined, employing the urban form as the scenariocondition and aiming at identifying whether any policies set can be implemented to realizethe predefined form. If yes, what the detailed policy implications are for the scenario formshould be answered. A constrained cellular automata model (CA) is developed for FSA,which borrows the routine model calibration method of constrained CA using historicalobserved forms from existing literatures. Four planned schemes of Beijing Master Plan 2020for the Beijing Metropolitan Area are analyzed using constrained CA to test FSA approach,and the corresponding required policy parameters are generated, together with policyimplications for the study area. FSA is proved to be suitable for urban planning practice.
1. School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China; 3. School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa 920-1192, Japan
王成新, 王格芳, 刘瑞超, 等. 2011. 高速公路对城市群结构演变的影响研究: 以山东半岛城市群为例[J]. , 31(1): 61-67. [Wang CX, Wang GF, Liu RC, et al. 2011. The impact of highway on the structure evolution of urban agglomeration: a case of urban aglomeration of Shand ong Peninsula[J]. , 31(1): 61-67. ]
Transportation is just like the artery for regional development, it is also the basic fundation for the development of agglomeration. As the modern transportation, highway network in China generates an increasingly profound and long-term effect to the evolution of spatial structure of urban agglomeration. Taking urban agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula as an example, combining of qualitative and quantitative analysis, the impact of highway on urban agglomeration is strudied, including the urban agglomeration architecture, spatial structure and functions of the structure. Highway promotes the evolution of urban agglomeration system structure, and leads to the formation of a new model of urban spatial expansion named the merger and reorganization. By reducing the time distance among various cities, highway also promotes the rationalization of space layout in urban agglomerations which makes the mutual influence in urban agglomeration more profound. Because the intensity of the urban flow is greatly strengthened and the gravitation among cities increases, the space deprive effect aroused by that makes the constant change of the control border among the cities. Lastly, highway is becoming the important factor for the change of functional structure of urban cluster. In period of industrialization, the flow of fund, people and material is becoming increasingly strengthened by the quick channel of highway, and then urban agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula is gradually integrated into an organic system as a whole.
1. College of Population Resource and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, Shandong 250014, China; 2. Shandong Party Institute of the the Communist Party of China, Jinan, Shandong 250021, China; 3. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210008, China
LongY, Mao QZ, Dang AR. 2009. Beijing urban development model: urban growth analysis and simulation[J]. , 14(6): 782-794.
Abstract Urban growth analysis and simulation have been recently conducted by cellular automata (CA) models based on self-organizing theory which differs from system dynamics models. This paper describes the Beijing urban development model (BUDEM) which adopts the CA approach to support urban planning and policy evaluation. BUDEM, as a spatio-temporal dynamic model for simulating urban growth in the Beijing metropolitan area, is based on the urban growth theory and integrates logistic regression and MonoLoop to obtain the weights for the transition rule with multi-criteria evaluation configuration. Local sensitivity analysis for all the parameters of BUDEM is also carried out to assess the model's performances. The model is used to identify urban growth mechanisms in the various historical phases since 1986, to retrieve urban growth policies needed to implement the desired (planned) urban form in 2020, and to simulate urban growth scenarios until 2049 based on the urban form and parameter set in 2020. The model has been proved to be capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China.
... Ward et al, 2000),对模型进行了改进并取得了较好的模拟效果,如龙瀛等(2009)发展了将空间约束、制度性约束、邻域约束作为约束条件的北京城市空间发展分析模型(BUDEM)(Long et al, 2009) ...
... 的自组织特征(Long et al, 2008),这与元胞自动机(CA)#cod#x0201c ...
... Ward et al, 2000),对模型进行了改进并取得了较好的模拟效果,如龙瀛等(2009)发展了将空间约束、制度性约束、邻域约束作为约束条件的北京城市空间发展分析模型(BUDEM)(Long et al, 2009) ...
... 针对传统CA的局限性,部分学者将一些约束条件引入到CA模型中,对其模拟过程进行控制(White et al, 1997 ...