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PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY  2015, Vol. 34 Issue (3): 354-363
锘� 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�—娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛鍙婂叾褰卞搷鍥犵礌
1960-2013骞寸Е宀�—娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛鍙婂叾褰卞搷鍥犵礌
鏉庡弻鍙�1,2, 鏉ㄨ禌闇�1,2, 鍒樺閿�1,3
1. 鍖椾含甯堣寖澶у鍦拌〃杩囩▼涓庤祫婧愮敓鎬佸浗瀹堕噸鐐瑰疄楠屽,鍖椾含 100875
2. 鍖椾含甯堣寖澶у鍑忕伨涓庡簲鎬ョ鐞嗙爺绌堕櫌,鍖椾含 100875
3. 鍖椾含甯堣寖澶у璧勬簮瀛﹂櫌,鍖椾含 100875
閫氳浣滆�咃細鏉ㄨ禌闇�(1975-),濂�,姹熻嫃姝﹁繘浜�,鍓暀鎺�,涓昏鐮旂┒鏂瑰悜涓轰氦閫氬簲鎬ヤ笌椋庨櫓绠$悊,E-mail: yangsaini@bnu.edu.cn銆�

浣滆�呯畝浠嬶細鏉庡弻鍙�(1988-),鐢�,闄曡タ娼煎叧浜�,鍗氬+鐢�,涓昏鐮旂┒鏂瑰悜涓哄叏鐞冨彉鍖栦笌鍖哄煙鐏惧闃叉不,E-mail: lss40609010@126.com銆�

鎽樿

鍩轰簬绉﹀箔—娣渤鍗楀寳姘旇薄绔欑偣閫愭棩闄嶆按鏁版嵁鍜屽叏鍥�0.5°×0.5°閫愭湀闄嶆按鏍肩綉鏁版嵁,閫夊彇16涓瀬绔檷姘存寚鏁�,杈呬互瓒嬪娍鍒嗘瀽銆丮ann-Kendall妫�楠屽拰鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽绛夋皵鍊欒瘖鏂柟娉�,鍒嗘瀽浜�1960-2013骞寸Е宀�—娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛,鎺㈣浜嗘瀬绔檷姘村彉鍖栦笌ENSO浜嬩欢鐨勫叧绯汇�傜粨鏋滆〃鏄庯細鈶�1960-2013骞寸Е宀�—娣渤鍗楀寳闄ら暱姹熶笅娓搁檷姘村憟澧炲姞瓒嬪娍澶�,鍏朵粬鍖哄煙闄嶆按鍧囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍;鈶℃瀬绔檷姘村彉鍖栦富瑕佽〃鐜颁负锛氶檷姘存棩鏁板噺灏�,闄嶆按寮哄害涓婂崌,绐佸彂鎬у己闄嶆按浜嬩欢澧炲,杩炵画鎬у共鏃变簨浠跺澶�;鍦ㄧ┖闂翠笂,绉﹀反灞卞湴銆侀暱姹熶笅娓稿拰榛勬渤涓嬫父浠ユ瀬绔檷姘村己搴︿笂鍗囦负涓�,鍏充腑骞冲師銆佸帆灞卞北鍖哄拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴浠ユ瀬绔共鏃卞己搴︿笂鍗囦负涓�;鈶㈠湪褰卞搷鍥犵礌鏂归潰,绉﹀箔—娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按涓嶦NSO浜嬩欢鍏崇郴瀵嗗垏銆傚湪鍘勫皵灏艰骞�,绉﹀箔—娣渤鍗楀寳鏄ュ鏋佺闄嶆按鍋忓,澶忓鍜屽叏骞村亸灏�;鍦ㄦ媺灏煎骞�,鏄ュ鏋佺闄嶆按鍋忓皯,绉嬪鍜屽叏骞村亸澶氥�傚氨鍚勪釜鍖哄煙鑰岃█,鍦ㄥ巹灏斿凹璇哄勾,榛勬渤涓嬫父銆佸叧涓钩鍘熴�佺Е宸村北鍦板拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴鏋佺闄嶆按鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�,娣渤骞冲師鏋佺闄嶆按鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�,闀挎睙涓嬫父鍜屽帆灞卞北鍖哄搷搴斿苟涓嶆槑鏄俱��

鍏抽敭璇�: 姘斿�欏彉鍖�; 鏋佺闄嶆按; 鏃剁┖鍙樺寲; 绉﹀箔—娣渤鍗楀寳
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.03.010
Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region and influencing factors during 1960-2013
LI Shuangshuang1,2, YANG Saini1,2, LIU Xianfeng1,3
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. College of Resource Sciences and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Abstract

Based on the monthly precipitation of a 0.5°×0.5° grid dataset and the daily precipitation observations of 135 meteorological stations released by the National Meteorological Information Center of China, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region during 1960-2013, using the methods of trend analysis, Sen+Mann-Kendall model, and correlation analysis. More specifically, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO and the observed extreme precipitation. The results are as follows: (1) the precipitation showed an increasing trend in the lower reach of the Yangtze River and a decreasing tendency in the other regions; (2) extreme precipitation analysis indicates a declining trend in rainy days and an increasing trend in precipitation intensity. The number of continuous drought events increased. Spatially, the regions with increasing intensity of extreme precipitation were mainly distributed in the Qinling-Bashan Mountains and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, whereas there were more drought events in the Guanzhong Plain, Wushan Mountains, and Sichuan Basin; (3) Extreme precipitation had a close relationship with ENSO in the study region. In El Niño years, more precipitation was found in the spring but there was less precipitation in the summer and the whole year. In La Niña years, there was less precipitation in the spring and more precipitation in the autumn and the whole year. The responses of extreme precipitation events to El Niño exhibited spatial differences. Most of the regions with decreasing extreme precipitation in El Niño years were distributed in the lower reach of the Yellow River, the Guanzhong Plain and Qinling-Bashan Mountains, as well as the Sichuan Basin, while the region with increasing extreme precipitation was the Huaihe Plain. The lower reach of the Yangtze River and the Wushan Mountains showed no clear response to ENSO.

Keyword: climate change; extreme precipitation; spatiotemporal change; north and south of the Qinling -Huaihe region
1 寮曡█

IPCC绗簲娆¤瘎浼版姤鍛婃寚鍑�, 姘斿�欑郴缁熷彉鏆栦緷鐒舵槸姣嬪缃枒鐨勪簨瀹炪��1951-2012骞村叏鐞冨钩鍧囧湴琛ㄦ俯搴﹀崌娓╅�熺巼涓�0.12鈩�/10 a, 1980-2012骞翠负宸ヤ笟闈╁懡浠ユ潵鏈�鏆栫殑30骞�(IPCC, 2013; 绉﹀ぇ娌�, 2014)銆傚湪姘斿�欏彉鏆栬儗鏅笅, 鍏ㄧ悆澶氭暟鍖哄煙鏋佺闄嶆按鍛堢幇澧炲姞瓒嬪娍, 浣嗗苟鏈儚鏋佺姘旀俯鍏锋湁鍏ㄧ悆涓�鑷存��(Donat et al, 2013), 缇庡浗銆佸崡闈炲拰鍔犲嫆姣旂瓑鍖哄煙鐮旂┒浜﹀彂鐜颁笂杩拌寰�(Sen et al, 2013; Monier et al, 2014; Stephenson et al, 2014)銆侷PCC“ 绠$悊鏋佺浜嬩欢鍜岀伨瀹抽闄╂帹杩涙皵鍊欏彉鍖栭�傚簲鐗瑰埆鎶ュ憡(SREX)” 鎸囧嚭, 鍏ㄧ悆姘斿�欏彉鍖栧彲鑳藉鑷村己闄嶆按绛夋瀬绔ぉ姘斾簨浠跺鍔�, 浣嗘槸鐢变簬鐜伴樁娈电瀛︾爺绌跺姝ょ己涔忕粺涓�璁よ瘑, 鍏剁粨璁哄彲淇″害涓轰腑绛�(IPCC, 2012)銆�

杩戝勾鏉�, 涓浗瀛﹁�呴拡瀵逛笉鍚屾祦鍩�(鏉庢枌绛�, 2011; Du et al, 2014; Zhang et al, 2014; Zhao et al, 2014)銆佷笉鍚岀渷鍩�(Huang et al, 2014; Li et al, 2014; 鎱堟櫀绛�, 2014; 钁f棴鍏夌瓑, 2014)浠ュ強涓嶅悓鑷劧鍖哄煙(Cao et al, 2014; Liu et al, 2014; 浠绘鏋滅瓑, 2014)鐨勬瀬绔檷姘翠簨浠惰繘琛屼簡鎺㈢储鎬х爺绌�, 鎻愰珮浜嗗涓浗鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲鐨勮璇嗐�傚湪宸叉湁鐮旂┒涓�, 閽堝绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳涓烘暣浣撶殑鐮旂┒鐩稿杈冨皯, 缂轰箯涓嶅悓鍖哄煙涔嬮棿鐨勭患鍚堝姣旂爺绌�, 澶氭暟鐮旂┒鍏虫敞鐐逛负鍖哄煙鍐呴儴鍏抽敭娴佸煙鎴栧吀鍨嬪煄甯�; 鐮旂┒瑕佺礌浠ユ皵娓┿�侀檷姘村拰寰勬祦绛夊父瑙勬按鏂囨皵璞¤绱犱负涓�, 瀵规瀬绔檷姘翠簨浠跺叧娉ㄧ浉瀵硅緝灏�(椹缓鍗庣瓑, 2004; 鍛ㄦ棗绛�, 2011; 鐧界孩鑻辩瓑, 2012; 鏉庡弻鍙岀瓑, 2012; 鑻忓潳鎱х瓑, 2012; 钂嬪啿绛�, 2013)銆傜Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳浣嶄簬涓浗涓滈儴瀛i鍖�, 鏄腑鍥介噸瑕佺殑鍦扮悊鐢熸�佸垎鐣岀嚎, 鐢熸�佺幆澧冭剢寮�, 鏄皵鍊欏彉鍖栫殑鏁忔劅鍖�, 涔熸槸鍗楁按鍖楄皟涓嚎姘存簮鍖哄拰涓浗鏈�澶ц繛鐗囪传鍥板尯, 鍖哄煙鐜鍜屽彂灞曞涓浗褰撲唬鍜屾湭鏉ョ幆澧冨拰鍙戝睍鍏锋湁閲嶈鐨勬剰涔�(寤跺啗骞崇瓑, 2001)銆�

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3 鏁版嵁鏉ユ簮涓庣爺绌舵柟娉�

鏈枃閫愭棩闄嶆按绔欑偣鏁版嵁鍜岄�愭湀闄嶆按鏍肩綉鏁版嵁鍧囨潵婧愪簬涓浗姘旇薄绉戝鏁版嵁鍏变韩鏈嶅姟缃�(http://www.cdc.cma.gov.cn), 浠ョ珯鐐规暟鎹垎鏋愭瀬绔檷姘村彉鍖栬秼鍔跨壒寰�, 浠ユ牸缃戞暟鎹垎鏋愭瀬绔檷姘翠笌ENSO浜嬩欢鐨勫搷搴斿叧绯汇�傚叾涓�, 涓浗鍦伴潰闄嶆按鏈堝��0.5° × 0.5° 鏍肩偣鏁版嵁闆�(V2.0)鐢卞浗瀹舵皵璞′俊鎭腑蹇冩皵璞¤祫鏂欏疄楠屽寤虹珛, 璇ユ暟鎹泦鍩轰簬涓浗2474涓浗瀹剁骇鍦伴潰姘旇薄绔欐湀闄嶆按閲忚娴嬫暟鎹�, 骞跺埄鐢ˋNUSPLIN杞欢鐨勮杽鐩樻牱鏉℃硶鍜�0.5° × 0.5° 鐨勬暟瀛楅珮绋嬫ā鍨嬫彃鍊�, 灏藉彲鑳芥秷闄ら珮绋嬪洜绱犲闄嶆按绌洪棿鍒嗗竷鐨勫奖鍝嶃�傚巹灏斿凹璇烘寚鏁�(ONI)鏉ユ簮浜庣編鍥藉浗瀹惰埅绌鸿埅澶╁眬(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov), 骞跺弬鐓у浗瀹舵皵鍊欎腑蹇僂NSO浜嬩欢鐗瑰緛閲忕患鍚堣〃瀵瑰巹灏斿凹璇哄拰鎷夊凹濞滃嘲鍊煎勾杩涜鐣屽畾; 瀛h妭鍒掑垎閲囩敤姘旇薄瀛︽爣鍑嗭細鏄ュ涓�3-5鏈�, 澶忓6-8鏈�, 绉嬪9-11鏈�, 鍐涓�12鏈�-娆″勾2鏈堛��

鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨暟瀹氫箟鏄熀浜庝笘鐣屾皵璞$粍缁�(WMO)姘斿�欏鍛樹細(CCI)銆佸叏鐞冩皵鍊欑爺绌惰鍒�(WCRP)姘斿�欏彉鍖栧拰鍙娴嬫�ц鍒�(CLIVAR)姘斿�欏彉鍖栨娴嬨�佺洃娴嬪拰鎸囨爣涓撳缁�(ETCCDMI)纭畾鐨�“ 姘斿�欏彉鍖栨娴嬪拰鎸囨爣(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)” , 璇ユ柟娉曞凡琚箍娉涘簲鐢ㄤ簬鏋佺姘斿�欎簨浠剁爺绌朵腑銆傛湰鏂囧畾涔�16涓瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍�, 鍖呮嫭鍥涘ぇ绫伙細鐩稿鎸囨暟銆佺粷瀵规寚鏁般�佸己搴︽寚鏁板拰鎸佺画鎬ф寚鏁�(琛�1)銆�

琛�1 16涓瀬绔檷姘存寚鏁板畾涔� Tab.1 Definition of the 16 extreme precipitation indices

鐢变簬绾挎�у洖褰掕姹傛椂闂村簭鍒楃鍚堟鎬佸垎甯�, 涓旀槗鍙楀紓甯稿�煎共鎵�, Sen瓒嬪娍搴﹂�愭笎琚紩鍏ユ皵鍊欒秼鍔垮彉鍖栧垎鏋�(Sen, 1968)銆係en+Mann-Kendall瓒嬪娍搴﹂�氳繃璁$畻姘斿�欒绱犲簭鍒椾腑鍊艰繘琛岃秼鍔垮垎鏋�, 骞剁粨鍚圡ann-Kendall鏂规硶瀵硅秼鍔垮彉鍖栬繘琛屾樉钁楁�ф楠�, 鍙互鍦ㄤ竴瀹氱▼搴︿笂鎻愰珮姘斿�欏彉鍖栬秼鍔垮垽鏂殑鍑嗙‘鎬с�係en瓒嬪娍搴﹁绠楀叕寮忎负锛�

=meanxj-xij-i, 鈭�j> i

寮忎腑锛� 涓烘瀬绔檷姘村簭鍒楃殑Sen瓒嬪娍搴�, xi, xj涓烘瀬绔檷姘村簭鍒�, i銆�j鍒嗗埆涓烘瀬绔檷姘村簭鍒楀勾浠姐�傝嫢 鍊间负姝�, 琛ㄧず鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨暟鍛堝鍔犺秼鍔�; 鍊间负璐�, 鍒欒〃绀烘瀬绔檷姘存寚鏁板憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍銆�

4 缁撴灉鍒嗘瀽
4.1 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按鍙樺寲鑳屾櫙

1960-2013骞�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按绌洪棿鏍煎眬鍛堢幇鍑�“ 鍗楀鍖楀皯銆佷笢澶氳タ灏�” 鐗瑰緛, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤浠ュ崡骞撮檷姘撮噺鍒嗗埆涓猴細绉﹀反灞卞湴(819.1 mm)< 娣渤骞冲師(934.0 mm)< 鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴(1068.0 mm)< 闀挎睙涓嬫父(1237.5 mm)< 宸北灞卞尯(1319.6 mm); 绉﹀箔— 娣渤浠ュ寳骞撮檷姘撮噺鍒嗗埆涓猴細鍏充腑骞冲師(602.1 mm)< 榛勬渤涓嬫父(693.7 mm); 鍦ㄩ暱鏈熷彉鍖栬秼鍔夸笂, 闀挎睙涓嬫父鍦板尯闄嶆按鍛堝鍔犵殑瓒嬪娍, 涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�15.7 mm/10 a, 绉﹀反灞卞湴(-5.8 mm/10 a)銆佹樊娌冲钩鍘�(-8.0 mm/10 a)銆佸叧涓钩鍘�(-16.0 mm/10 a)銆侀粍娌充笅娓�(-6.1 mm/10 a)銆佸帆灞卞北鍖�(-28.1 mm/10 a)銆佸洓宸濈泦鍦�(-15.3 mm/10 a)闄嶆按鍧囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍(鍥�2)銆備粠闄嶆按骞翠唬鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛鐪�, 20涓栫邯70骞翠唬鏈�, 鐢变簬涓滀簹澶忓椋庡亸寮�, 涓浗涓滈儴闆ㄥ瀷鐢�“ 鍖楁稘鍗楁棻” 杞负“ 鍗楁稘鍖楁棻” , 榛勬渤涓嬫父鎸佺画骞叉棻鍜岄暱姹熶笅娓搁鍙戞椽姘村潎涓庢姘斿�欏彉鍖栬儗鏅湁鍏�; 2000骞村悗涓滈儴闆ㄥ甫鏈夊寳绉昏秼鍔�, 榛勬渤涓嬫父鍜屾樊娌冲钩鍘熼檷姘寸浉瀵逛簬鍓嶆湡鍛堝鍔犺秼鍔�, 闀挎睙涓嬫父闄嶆按鍒欐寔缁亸浣�(鐜嬭壋濮g瓑, 2014)銆�

鍥�2 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛 (鍥句腑钃濊壊闃村奖涓洪檷姘村亸澶氭湡, 绾㈣壊闃村奖涓洪檷姘村亸灏戞湡, 闄嶆按璺濆钩鏃舵涓�1971-2000骞�)Fig.2 Variation of precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013 (The blue shaded area shows positive precipitation anomaly; the red shaded area shows negative precipitation anomaly; the baseline period of precipitation is 1971-2000)

4.2 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛

(1) 鎸佺画鎬ф寚鏍囥��1960-2013骞�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳53.0%绔欑偣杩炵画鏃犻洦鏃ユ暟(CDD)鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�0.5 d/10 a, 杩滈珮浜庨粍娣捣娴佸煙鍙樺寲閫熺巼0.05 d/10 a (Zhang et al, 2014)銆傚湪绌洪棿涓�, 绉﹀反灞卞湴鎵�鏈夌珯鐐瑰潎鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 榛勬渤涓嬫父鍜屽洓宸濈泦鍦板憟涓婂崌瓒嬪娍绔欑偣姣斾緥鍒嗗埆涓�66.7%鍜�50.0%, 闀挎睙涓嬫父(85.7%)銆佸叧涓钩鍘�(66.7%)鍜屽帆灞卞北鍖�(60.0%)CDD鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔跨珯鐐规瘮閲嶅潎瓒呰繃50.0%; 81.0%绔欑偣杩炵画闄嶆按鏃ユ暟(CWD)鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓嬮檷閫熺巼涓�0.2 d/10 a, 楂樹簬榛勬樊娴锋祦鍩�0.1 d/10 a(Zhang et al, 2014), 浣嗕綆浜庝腑鍥藉崡鏂瑰湴鍖�0.5 d/10 a鐨勪笅闄嶉�熺巼(浠绘鏋滅瓑, 2014)銆傜┖闂翠笂, 闄ら暱姹熶笅娓搞�侀粍娌充笅娓稿拰娣渤骞冲師閮ㄥ垎绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔垮, 鍏朵粬鍚勫尯鍧囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍; 59.0%绔欑偣鐢熼暱瀛i檷姘�(GPRCP)鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�(-7.8 mm/10 a), 鍏朵腑宸北灞卞尯鎵�鏈夌珯鐐瑰潎鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 闀挎睙涓嬫父(75.0%)鍜岀Е宸村北鍦�(53.8%)GPRCP鍛堢幇涓婂崌瓒嬪娍銆傚彲浠ョ湅鍑�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鎸佺画鎬ч檷姘存棩鏁板湪涓嬮檷, 鎸佺画鎬у共鏃辨棩鏁板湪澧炲姞, 鐢熼暱瀛i檷姘翠互涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍涓轰富, 鍖哄煙闈复骞叉棻椋庨櫓閫愭笎澧炲ぇ(鍥�3, 琛�2)銆�

(2) 寮哄害鎸囨暟銆傚湪1鏃ユ渶澶ч檷姘撮噺(Rx1day)鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍涓�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏈�67.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�0.6 mm/10 a, 涓庨粍娣捣娴佸煙-0.6 mm/10 a涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍褰㈡垚椴滄槑瀵规瘮(Zhang et al, 2014), 鑰屼笖涓婂崌鍖洪泦涓簬闀挎睙涓嬫父銆佺Е宸村北鍦板拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴; 杩炵画5鏃ユ渶澶ч檷姘撮噺(Rx5day)鏈�54.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�0.2 mm/10 a, 浣庝簬鍗楁柟鍦板尯1.7 mm/10 a涓婂崌閫熺巼(浠绘鏋滅瓑, 2014), 楂樹簬榛勬樊娴锋祦鍩�1.9 mm/10 a鐨勪笅闄嶈秼鍔�(Zhang et al, 2014)銆傚氨闄嶆按寮哄害(SDII)鑰岃█, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏈�74.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 闀挎睙涓嬫父鍜岀Е宸村北鍦伴檷姘村己搴﹀鍔犺秼鍔垮挨涓烘槑鏄�, 涓婂崌瓒嬪娍绔欑偣姣旈噸鍒嗗埆涓�92.9%鍜�92.3%(鍥�3, 琛�2)銆�

(3) 缁濆鎸囨暟銆�1960-2013骞�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄ゅぇ闆ㄦ棩鏁�(Rr25)鏃犳槑鏄惧彉鍖栬秼鍔垮, 缁濆鎸囨暟鏁翠綋鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 涓嬮檷閫熺巼鍒嗗埆涓猴細Rr10(-0.3 d/10 a)< Rr5(-0.7 d/10 a)< Rr1(-1.4 d/10 a)< RD(-8.0 d/10 a), 闆ㄦ棩(RD)銆佺棔闆ㄦ棩鏁�(Rr1)鍜屽皬闆ㄦ棩鏁�(Rr5)鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍閫氳繃0.05鏄捐憲姘村钩妫�楠屻�傚湪绌洪棿涓�, 鐩稿浜庝笢閮ㄥ钩鍘熷尯闄嶆按鏃ユ暟鍛堥浂鏁d笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 瑗块儴灞卞湴鍖哄垯鏁翠綋鍛堢幇涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍, 鍏朵腑鍏充腑骞冲師銆佸帆灞卞北鍖哄拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴鎵�鏈夌珯鐐瑰潎鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�(鍥�3, 琛�2)銆�

(4) 鐩稿鎸囨暟銆傚湪寮傚父闄嶆按鏃ユ暟(R95)鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍涓�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏈�59.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 涓嬮檷閫熺巼涓�0.3 d/10 a; 鏋佺闄嶆按鏃ユ暟(R99)鍒欐湁63.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 浣嗗叾鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍骞朵笉鏄捐憲; 寮傚父闄嶆按鎬婚噺(R95P)鏈�45.0%鐨勭珯鐐瑰憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍, 涓嬮檷閫熺巼涓�-4.3 mm/10 a, 鏋佺闄嶆按鎬婚噺(R99P)鏈�72.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�2.2 mm/10 a銆傚湪绌洪棿涓�, 鏋佺闄嶆按涓婂崌鍖轰富瑕侀泦涓簬闀挎睙涓嬫父鍜岀Е宸村北鍦�, 鏋佺闄嶆按涓嬮檷鍖轰富瑕侀泦涓簬鍏充腑骞冲師鍜屽帆灞卞北鍖�(鍥�3, 琛�2)銆�

鍥�3 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲鏃剁┖鍒嗗竷鐗瑰緛 (涓轰簡缁熶竴鍥句腑棰滆壊鎸囩ず鎰忎箟, 灏嗚繛缁棤闆ㄦ棩鏁�(CDD)鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍鍙栧弽鍚�, 鍥句腑绾㈣壊娓叉煋琛ㄧず鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨爣鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 鍖哄煙瓒嬩簬骞叉棻; 缁胯壊娓叉煋琛ㄧず鏋佺鎸囨爣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鍖哄煙瓒嬩簬婀挎鼎)Fig.3 Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region (In order to use a consistent color scheme, the trend of CDD was multiplied by -1; red color indicates a decreeing trend of extreme precipitation index values; green color indicates a increasing trend of extreme precipitation index values)

琛�2 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍鍙婂叾绔欑偣姣旈噸 Tab.2 Trend of extreme precipitation and proportion of stations that showed the same trend in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013
4.3 ENSO浜嬩欢瀵圭Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲鐨勫奖鍝�

琛�3涓�1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳鍚勫尯鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨爣涓嶦NSO鐩稿叧鎬у垎鏋愩�備粠琛ㄤ腑鍙互鐪嬪嚭, 鈶犵Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳7涓垎鍖�140涓瀬绔寚鏍囦腑, 鏈�100涓寚鏍囦笌鍘勫皵灏艰鎸囨暟(ONI)鍛堣礋鐩稿叧, 40涓寚鏍囧憟姝g浉鍏�, 鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨爣浠ヨ礋鐩稿叧涓轰富銆傚綋鍙戠敓鍘勫皵灏艰浜嬩欢鏃�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按鏅亶鍋忓皯, 闄嶆按寮哄害鍜屾寔缁椂闂村憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍, 鎷夊凹濞滀簨浠朵笌涔嬬浉鍙�; 鈶′笉鍚屽尯鍩熸瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍囧ENSO浜嬩欢鍝嶅簲鍏锋湁宸紓, 鍏充腑骞冲師鍜岀Е宸村北鍖虹浉鍏虫�ф樉钁楁�ч珮浜庡叾浠栧尯鍩熴�傗憿涓嶅悓鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨爣瀵笶NSO鐨勫搷搴斿瓨鍦ㄤ竴鑷存��, 闄ょ粷瀵规寚鏍囨璐熺浉鍏冲尯澶ц嚧鐩稿綋澶�, 鐩稿鎸囨爣銆佸己搴︽寚鏍囥�佹寔缁�ф寚鏍囧拰瀛h妭鎸囨爣鍧囦互璐熺浉鍏充负涓�; 鈶g粨鍚堟樉钁楁�ф楠岀粨鏋�, 灏卞悇涓尯鍩熻�岃█, 褰撳彂鐢熷巹灏斿凹璇烘椂, 榛勬渤涓嬫父銆佸叧涓钩鍘熴�佺Е宸村北鍦板拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴鍒嗗埆鏈�17銆�19銆�19銆�18椤规瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍, 娣渤骞冲師鏈�16椤规瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍囧憟涓婂崌瓒嬪娍, 鑰岄暱姹熶笅娓稿拰宸北灞卞尯鏋佺闄嶆按鍝嶅簲骞舵棤鏄庢樉宸紓銆�

琛�3 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按涓嶦NSO鐩稿叧鎬у垎鏋� Tab.3 Correlation coefficients between extreme precipitation indices and ENSO in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013

鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽涓昏琛ㄨ揪ENSO涓庨檷姘寸嚎鎬у叧绯�, 寰�寰�浼氫綆浼板叾闈炵嚎鎬т俊鎭�, 鍒╃敤鍚堟垚鍒嗘瀽杩涗竴姝ユ彮绀虹Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按瀵笶NSO鍙樺寲鐨勫搷搴旂壒寰併�傜敱浜庢瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍囩浉瀵硅緝澶�, 鍙楁枃绔犵瘒骞呴檺鍒�, 鏃犳硶閫愪竴灞曠ず鍚勪釜鏋佺鎸囨爣涓嶦NSO骞翠唬鍙樺寲銆傞�氳繃鏋勫缓鏋佺鎸囨暟鐩稿叧鐭╅樀, 鍙戠幇骞撮檷姘撮噺鍏锋湁寰堝ソ鐨勪唬琛ㄦ��, 闄よ繛缁棤闆ㄦ棩鏁�(CDD)銆佺瀛c�佸啲瀛i檷姘寸浉鍏虫�ц緝浣庡, 骞撮檷姘村彉鍖栦笌鍏朵粬鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨爣鍧囬珮搴︾浉鍏�(P< 0.001), 骞撮檷姘撮噺鍙綔涓哄吀鍨嬫寚鏍�, 杈冨ソ鍦板弽鏄犲鏁版瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍囧彉鍖栫壒寰併��

渚濇嵁鍥藉姘斿�欎腑蹇僂NSO浜嬩欢鐗瑰緛閲忕患鍚堣〃, 1960-2013骞村巹灏斿凹璇哄嘲鍊煎勾鏈夛細1963銆�1965銆�1969銆�1972銆�1982銆�1983銆�1987銆�1992銆�1994銆�1997銆�2002銆�2006鍜�2009; 鎷夊凹濞滃嘲鍊煎勾鏈夛細1961銆�1962銆�1964銆�1967銆�1970銆�1975銆�1984銆�1988銆�1995銆�2000銆�2007銆�2010鍜�2011骞淬�備互1971-2000骞撮檷姘撮噺浣滀负姘斿�欏钩鍧囨��, 鍒嗗埆缁熻鍘勫皵灏艰鍜屾媺灏煎宄板�煎勾鍥涘鍜屽勾闄嶆按姝h窛骞虫爡鏍兼暟(琛�4)銆傚彲浠ョ湅鍑�, 鍦ㄥ巹灏斿凹璇哄嘲鍊煎勾, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏄ュ闄嶆按鍋忓, 澶忓闄嶆按鏄庢樉鍋忓皯, 绉嬪闄嶆按鍋忓皯, 鍐闄嶆按寰急澧炲姞, 鍏ㄥ勾浠ラ檷姘村亸灏戜负涓�; 鍦ㄦ媺灏煎宄板�煎勾, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏄ュ闄嶆按鍋忓皯, 澶忓闄嶆按寰急澧炲姞, 绉嬪鍋忓, 鍐闄嶆按鍋忓皯, 鍏ㄥ勾浠ラ檷姘村亸澶氫负涓汇��

琛�4 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鍘勫皵灏艰鍜屾媺灏煎宄板�煎勾闄嶆按寮傚父鍋忓闈㈢Н瀵规瘮/% Tab.4 Comparison of the spatial coverage of positive precipitation anomaly between El Niñ o and La Niñ o years in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region/%

涓轰簡鏇存竻妤氬睍绀篍NSO浜嬩欢瀵圭Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按褰卞搷鐨勭┖闂寸壒寰�, 浠ュ巹灏斿凹璇哄嘲鍊煎勾闄嶆按鍑忓幓鎷夊凹濞滃勾, 缁樺埗涓浗鍘勫皵灏艰宄板�煎勾闄嶆按寮傚父鍒嗗竷鍥�(鍥�4)銆備粠鍥�4鍙洿娓呮鐪嬪嚭锛氬湪鍘勫皵灏艰宄板�煎勾, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏄ュ闄嶆按鍋忓, 澶忓銆佺瀛�, 鍐闄嶆按寰急鍋忓銆傚叾涓�, 鍏ㄥ勾鍜屽瀛i檷姘村亸澶氱殑鍖哄煙涓昏鍒嗗竷鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴涓滈儴鍜岄暱姹熶笅娓搞��

鍥�4 1960-2013骞翠腑鍥藉巹灏斿凹璇哄勾鍥涘鍜屽叏骞撮檷姘村紓甯哥┖闂村垎甯冨浘Fig.4 Spatial pattern of seasonal and annual precipitation anomalies in El Niñ o years in China, 1960-2013

5 缁撹

鍩轰簬绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳閫愭棩绔欑偣闄嶆按鏁版嵁浠ュ強鍏ㄥ浗0.5° × 0.5° 閫愭湀闄嶆按鏍肩綉鏁版嵁, 閫夊彇16椤规瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍�, 鏈枃鍒嗘瀽浜�1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛, 鎺㈣浜咵NSO浜嬩欢涓庢瀬绔檷姘村彉鍖栫殑鍏崇郴, 寰楀埌鍒濇缁撹濡備笅锛�

(1) 鍦ㄩ檷姘存椂绌哄彉鍖栫壒寰佷笂, 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按绌洪棿鏍煎眬鍛堢幇鍑�“ 鍗楀鍖楀皯銆佷笢澶氳タ灏�” 鐗瑰緛, 鍦ㄩ暱鏈熷彉鍖栬秼鍔夸笂, 榛勬渤涓嬫父鍜岄暱姹熶笅娓搁檷姘村憟澧炲姞瓒嬪娍, 绉﹀反灞卞湴銆佹樊娌冲钩鍘熴�佸叧涓钩鍘熴�佸帆灞卞北鍖哄拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔裤��20涓栫邯70骞翠唬鏈�, 鐢变簬涓滀簹澶忓椋庡亸寮�, 榛勬渤涓嬫父鍜屾樊娌冲钩鍘熸寔缁共鏃便�侀暱姹熶笅娓搁檷姘村澶�; 2000骞村悗涓浗涓滈儴闆ㄥ甫鏈夊寳绉昏秼鍔�, 榛勬渤涓嬫父銆佺Е宸村北鍦板拰娣渤骞冲師闄嶆按鐩稿浜庡墠鏈熷憟澧炲姞瓒嬪娍, 闀挎睙涓嬫父闄嶆按鍒欐寔缁亸浣庛��

(2) 鍦ㄦ瀬绔檷姘村彉鍖栫壒寰佷笂, 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳缁濆鎸囨爣鏁翠綋鍧囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍, 闄嶆按绛夌骇瓒婇檷浣�, 涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍瓒婃樉钁�; 寮哄害鎸囨爣浠ヤ笂鍗囪秼鍔夸负涓�, 涓滈儴骞冲師鍖烘瀬绔檷姘村己搴﹂珮浜庤タ閮ㄥ北鍦板尯; 鍦ㄦ寔缁�ф寚鏍囦腑, 鎸佺画鎬ч檷姘�(CWD)浠ヤ笅闄嶈秼鍔夸负涓�, 杩炵画鏃犻洦鏃ユ暟(CDD)鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�; 浜﹀嵆绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按鍙樺寲鏇村姞鏋佺, 寮遍檷姘存棩鏁颁笅闄�, 寮洪檷姘存棩鏁颁笂鍗�, 绐佸彂鎬у己闄嶆按浜嬩欢澧炲, 杩炵画鎬у共鏃变簨浠朵害鍦ㄥ澶�; 鍦ㄧ┖闂翠笂, 绉﹀反灞卞湴銆侀暱姹熶笅娓稿拰榛勬渤涓嬫父涓烘瀬绔檷姘村己搴︿笂鍗�, 鍏充腑骞冲師銆佸帆灞卞北鍖哄拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴涓烘瀬绔共鏃卞己搴︿笂鍗囥��

(3) 鍦ㄦ瀬绔檷姘村奖鍝嶅洜绱犱笂, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按涓嶦NSO鍏崇郴瀵嗗垏銆傚綋鍙戠敓鍘勫皵灏艰浜嬩欢鏃�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按鏅亶鍋忓皯, 闄嶆按寮哄害鍜屾寔缁�у潎鍛堢幇涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍, 鎷夊凹濞滀簨浠朵笌涔嬬浉鍙嶃�傚氨涓嶅悓瀛h妭鑰岃█, 鍦ㄥ巹灏斿凹璇哄嘲鍊煎勾, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏄ュ闄嶆按鍋忓, 澶忓鍜岀瀛i檷姘村紓甯稿亸灏�, 鍐闄嶆按灏忓箙澧炲姞; 鍦ㄦ媺灏煎宄板�煎勾, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏄ュ闄嶆按寮傚父鍋忓皯, 绉嬪闄嶆按寮傚父鍋忓, 澶忓灏忓箙澧炲姞, 鍐闄嶆按鍋忓皯銆傚氨涓嶅悓鍖哄煙鑰岃█, 鍦ㄥ巹灏斿凹璇哄勾, 榛勬渤涓嬫父銆佸叧涓钩鍘熴�佺Е宸村北鍦板拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴鏋佺闄嶆按鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 娣渤骞冲師鏋佺闄嶆按鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 闀挎睙涓嬫父鍜屽帆灞卞北鍖哄搷搴斿苟涓嶆槑鏄俱��

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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