鏉庡弻鍙�, 鏉ㄨ禌闇�, 鍒樺閿�. .1960-2013骞寸Е宀�—娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛鍙婂叾褰卞搷鍥犵礌[J]. 鍦扮悊绉戝杩涘睍, ,34(3): 354-363
LI Shuangshuang, YANG Saini, LIU Xianfeng. .Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region and influencing factors during 1960-2013[J]. Progress In Geography,,34(3): 354-363
Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region and influencing factors during 1960-2013
LI Shuangshuang1,2, YANG Saini1,2, LIU Xianfeng1,3
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. College of Resource Sciences and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Based on the monthly precipitation of a 0.5°×0.5° grid dataset and the daily precipitation observations of 135 meteorological stations released by the National Meteorological Information Center of China, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region during 1960-2013, using the methods of trend analysis, Sen+Mann-Kendall model, and correlation analysis. More specifically, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO and the observed extreme precipitation. The results are as follows: (1) the precipitation showed an increasing trend in the lower reach of the Yangtze River and a decreasing tendency in the other regions; (2) extreme precipitation analysis indicates a declining trend in rainy days and an increasing trend in precipitation intensity. The number of continuous drought events increased. Spatially, the regions with increasing intensity of extreme precipitation were mainly distributed in the Qinling-Bashan Mountains and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, whereas there were more drought events in the Guanzhong Plain, Wushan Mountains, and Sichuan Basin; (3) Extreme precipitation had a close relationship with ENSO in the study region. In El Niño years, more precipitation was found in the spring but there was less precipitation in the summer and the whole year. In La Niña years, there was less precipitation in the spring and more precipitation in the autumn and the whole year. The responses of extreme precipitation events to El Niño exhibited spatial differences. Most of the regions with decreasing extreme precipitation in El Niño years were distributed in the lower reach of the Yellow River, the Guanzhong Plain and Qinling-Bashan Mountains, as well as the Sichuan Basin, while the region with increasing extreme precipitation was the Huaihe Plain. The lower reach of the Yangtze River and the Wushan Mountains showed no clear response to ENSO.
climate change; extreme precipitation; spatiotemporal change; north and south of the Qinling -Huaihe region
鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨暟瀹氫箟鏄熀浜庝笘鐣屾皵璞＄粍缁�(WMO)姘斿�欏鍛樹細(CCI)銆佸叏鐞冩皵鍊欑爺绌惰鍒�(WCRP)姘斿�欏彉鍖栧拰鍙娴嬫�ц鍒�(CLIVAR)姘斿�欏彉鍖栨娴嬨�佺洃娴嬪拰鎸囨爣涓撳缁�(ETCCDMI)纭畾鐨�“ 姘斿�欏彉鍖栨娴嬪拰鎸囨爣(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)” , 璇ユ柟娉曞凡琚箍娉涘簲鐢ㄤ簬鏋佺姘斿�欎簨浠剁爺绌朵腑銆傛湰鏂囧畾涔�16涓瀬绔檷姘存寚鏍�, 鍖呮嫭鍥涘ぇ绫伙細鐩稿鎸囨暟銆佺粷瀵规寚鏁般�佸己搴︽寚鏁板拰鎸佺画鎬ф寚鏁�(琛�1)銆�
琛�1 16涓瀬绔檷姘存寚鏁板畾涔�Tab.1 Definition of the 16 extreme precipitation indices
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺≥ 1 mm鏃ユ暟/d
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺≥ 5 mm鏃ユ暟/d
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺≥ 10 mm鏃ユ暟/d
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺≥ 25 mm鏃ユ暟/d
骞村唴闄嶆按閲忎笌鏃ラ檷姘撮噺≥ 1 mm 鏃ユ暟涔嬫瘮/(mm/d)
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺杩炵画< 1 mm鏃ユ暟鏈�澶у��/d
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺杩炵画≥ 1 mm鏃ユ暟鏈�澶у��/d
骞村唴鏃ラ檷姘撮噺≥ 1 mm闄嶆按閲忎箣鍜�/mm
琛�1 16涓瀬绔檷姘存寚鏁板畾涔�Tab.1 Definition of the 16 extreme precipitation indices
鍥�2 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳闄嶆按鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛 (鍥句腑钃濊壊闃村奖涓洪檷姘村亸澶氭湡, 绾㈣壊闃村奖涓洪檷姘村亸灏戞湡, 闄嶆按璺濆钩鏃舵涓�1971-2000骞�)Fig.2 Variation of precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013 (The blue shaded area shows positive precipitation anomaly; the red shaded area shows negative precipitation anomaly; the baseline period of precipitation is 1971-2000)
4.2 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛
(1) 鎸佺画鎬ф寚鏍囥��1960-2013骞�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳53.0%绔欑偣杩炵画鏃犻洦鏃ユ暟(CDD)鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�0.5 d/10 a, 杩滈珮浜庨粍娣捣娴佸煙鍙樺寲閫熺巼0.05 d/10 a (Zhang et al, 2014)銆傚湪绌洪棿涓�, 绉﹀反灞卞湴鎵�鏈夌珯鐐瑰潎鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 榛勬渤涓嬫父鍜屽洓宸濈泦鍦板憟涓婂崌瓒嬪娍绔欑偣姣斾緥鍒嗗埆涓�66.7%鍜�50.0%, 闀挎睙涓嬫父(85.7%)銆佸叧涓钩鍘�(66.7%)鍜屽帆灞卞北鍖�(60.0%)CDD鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔跨珯鐐规瘮閲嶅潎瓒呰繃50.0%; 81.0%绔欑偣杩炵画闄嶆按鏃ユ暟(CWD)鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓嬮檷閫熺巼涓�0.2 d/10 a, 楂樹簬榛勬樊娴锋祦鍩�0.1 d/10 a(Zhang et al, 2014), 浣嗕綆浜庝腑鍥藉崡鏂瑰湴鍖�0.5 d/10 a鐨勪笅闄嶉�熺巼(浠绘鏋滅瓑, 2014)銆傜┖闂翠笂, 闄ら暱姹熶笅娓搞�侀粍娌充笅娓稿拰娣渤骞冲師閮ㄥ垎绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔垮, 鍏朵粬鍚勫尯鍧囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍; 59.0%绔欑偣鐢熼暱瀛ｉ檷姘�(GPRCP)鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�(-7.8 mm/10 a), 鍏朵腑宸北灞卞尯鎵�鏈夌珯鐐瑰潎鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 闀挎睙涓嬫父(75.0%)鍜岀Е宸村北鍦�(53.8%)GPRCP鍛堢幇涓婂崌瓒嬪娍銆傚彲浠ョ湅鍑�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鎸佺画鎬ч檷姘存棩鏁板湪涓嬮檷, 鎸佺画鎬у共鏃辨棩鏁板湪澧炲姞, 鐢熼暱瀛ｉ檷姘翠互涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍涓轰富, 鍖哄煙闈复骞叉棻椋庨櫓閫愭笎澧炲ぇ(鍥�3, 琛�2)銆�
(2) 寮哄害鎸囨暟銆傚湪1鏃ユ渶澶ч檷姘撮噺(Rx1day)鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍涓�, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏈�67.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�0.6 mm/10 a, 涓庨粍娣捣娴佸煙-0.6 mm/10 a涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍褰㈡垚椴滄槑瀵规瘮(Zhang et al, 2014), 鑰屼笖涓婂崌鍖洪泦涓簬闀挎睙涓嬫父銆佺Е宸村北鍦板拰鍥涘窛鐩嗗湴; 杩炵画5鏃ユ渶澶ч檷姘撮噺(Rx5day)鏈�54.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鏁翠綋涓婂崌閫熺巼涓�0.2 mm/10 a, 浣庝簬鍗楁柟鍦板尯1.7 mm/10 a涓婂崌閫熺巼(浠绘鏋滅瓑, 2014), 楂樹簬榛勬樊娴锋祦鍩�1.9 mm/10 a鐨勪笅闄嶈秼鍔�(Zhang et al, 2014)銆傚氨闄嶆按寮哄害(SDII)鑰岃█, 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏈�74.0%绔欑偣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 闀挎睙涓嬫父鍜岀Е宸村北鍦伴檷姘村己搴﹀鍔犺秼鍔垮挨涓烘槑鏄�, 涓婂崌瓒嬪娍绔欑偣姣旈噸鍒嗗埆涓�92.9%鍜�92.3%(鍥�3, 琛�2)銆�
鍥�3 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲鏃剁┖鍒嗗竷鐗瑰緛 (涓轰簡缁熶竴鍥句腑棰滆壊鎸囩ず鎰忎箟, 灏嗚繛缁棤闆ㄦ棩鏁�(CDD)鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍鍙栧弽鍚�, 鍥句腑绾㈣壊娓叉煋琛ㄧず鏋佺闄嶆按鎸囨爣鍛堜笅闄嶈秼鍔�, 鍖哄煙瓒嬩簬骞叉棻; 缁胯壊娓叉煋琛ㄧず鏋佺鎸囨爣鍛堜笂鍗囪秼鍔�, 鍖哄煙瓒嬩簬婀挎鼎)Fig.3 Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region (In order to use a consistent color scheme, the trend of CDD was multiplied by -1; red color indicates a decreeing trend of extreme precipitation index values; green color indicates a increasing trend of extreme precipitation index values)
琛�2 1960-2013骞寸Е宀�— 娣渤鍗楀寳鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲瓒嬪娍鍙婂叾绔欑偣姣旈噸Tab.2 Trend of extreme precipitation and proportion of stations that showed the same trend in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013
琛�4 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鍘勫皵灏艰鍜屾媺灏煎宄板�煎勾闄嶆按寮傚父鍋忓闈㈢Н瀵规瘮/%Tab.4 Comparison of the spatial coverage of positive precipitation anomaly between El Niñ o and La Niñ o years in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region/%
琛�4 绉﹀箔— 娣渤鍗楀寳鍘勫皵灏艰鍜屾媺灏煎宄板�煎勾闄嶆按寮傚父鍋忓闈㈢Н瀵规瘮/%Tab.4 Comparison of the spatial coverage of positive precipitation anomaly between El Niñ o and La Niñ o years in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region/%
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鐧界孩鑻�, 椹柊钀�, 楂樼繑, 绛�. 2012. 鍩轰簬DEM鐨勭Е宀北鍦�1鏈堟皵娓╁強0 鈩冪瓑娓╃嚎鍙樺寲[J]. , 67(11): 1443-1450. [Bai HY, Ma XP, GaoX, et al. 2012. Variations in January temperature and 0鈩� isothermal curve in Qinling Mountains based on DEM[J]. , 67(11): 1443-1450. ]
Based on the records of January average temperature during 1959 to 2009 from 39 meteorological sites in the Qinling Mountains, we built the spatial database of January temperature by using space interpolation method based on DEM with the consideration of the influence of terrain factors on the temperature field. Also we extracted the 0鈩� isothermal curve and examined the changes in the January average temperature and the 0鈩� isothermal curve in the Qinling Mountains during the last 50 years. The January average temperature showed a rising trend at a rate of about 0.2鈩�/10a, and the 0鈩� isothermal curve rose by 143.7 m averagely in the Qinling Mountains during the last 50 years. On longitude, the largest variation in the 0鈩� isothermal curve was found in the region of 107°-109°E, where the height increased by 166.2 m during the last 50 years. This value is significantly higher than that in both eastern and western sections of Qinling Mountains; the temporal mutations point for the largest increase in the January temperature was found in 1993. The 0鈩� isothermal curve after the mutations point was raised higher by 113.82 m averagely than before.
1. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China; 2. Public Meteorological Service Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
閲戠杈�, 闄惰瘲瑷�. 1999. ENSO寰幆涓庝腑鍥戒笢閮ㄥ湴鍖哄瀛ｅ拰鍐闄嶆按鍏崇郴鐨勭爺绌�[J]. , 23(6): 663-672. [Jin ZH, Tao SY. 1999. A study on the relationships between ENSO cycle and rainfalls during summer and winter in eastern China[J]. , 23(6): 663-672. ]
钂嬪啿, 鏈辨灚, 鏉ㄩ檲, 绛�. 2013. 绉﹀箔鍗楀寳鍦板尯鍏夊悎鏈夋晥杈愬皠鏃剁┖鍙樺寲鍙婄獊鍙樼壒寰�[J]. , 32(3): 435-446. [JiangC, ZhuF, YangC, et al. Distribution and change of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains, China[J]. , 32(3): 435-446. ]
Based on 52-year (1960-2011) daily data from 47 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains, the annual and seasonal Photosynthetically Active Radiations (PAR) were calculated with equations of Angstrom and FAO Penman-Monteith. The spatial distribution, change trends and their causes were analyzed and detected with spatial analysis method of spline interpolation, Pettitt abrupt change point detection method and correlation analysis between PAR and relative factors. The results were as followed: (1) the PAR became weaker from north part to south part, i.e. from northern region of Qinling Mountains (NQ), to southern region of Qinling Mountains (SQ), to Han River Basin (HB) and to Valleys of Ba and Wu Mountain Areas (VBW). PAR in summer was the highest, followed by spring, autumn and winter. The distribution of PAR in spring, autumn and winter showed the same spatial pattern as annual PAR , but in summer, PAR in NQ is also the highest, then HB and VBW, and SQ being the lowest one. (2) PAR declined significantly in past 52a, the declining rates became smaller from south and east part to north and west part of this region. Except for an insignificant increase in spring, PAR decreased in other seasons, and the rate in summer was fastest, followed by that in winter and autumn. The maximum and minimum PAR appeared in 1960s-1970s and 2000s respectively in spring, summer and autumn. There were almost half of stations showing an increase of PAR mainly in west and central parts, and the other half stations showing decrease in spring. PAR of 79% of stations decreased in autumn, and the increasing stations were also located in west and central parts. PAR in summer and winter declined in most stations, and the decreasing rate was bigger in south part of Qingling Mountains than in north part. (3) 89% of stations had abrupt change points of yearly and summer PAR , and about 85% and 90% of them happened between 1979 and 1983, respectively. There were no obvious abrupt change points in spring or autumn. (4) Climate change (wind speed declining), fast urbanization and more aerosol emission from industrial production were the main reasons for the continuous decline of PAR , and the aerosol emitted from volcanoes was the main reason for fluctuation of PAR .
1. College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China; 2. Institute of Soil andWater Conservation, CAS and Ministry ofWater Resources, Yangling 712100, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
鍩轰簬绉﹀箔鍗楀寳鍦板尯47涓皵璞＄珯1960-2011骞寸殑閫愭棩姘旇薄鏁版嵁,閫氳繃Angstrom鏂圭▼鍜孭enman-Monteith鍏紡璁＄畻浜嗗悇绔欑偣鐨勫厜鍚堟湁鏁堣緪灏�( PAR ),骞跺�熷姪Spline绌洪棿鎻掑�笺�丳ettitt绐佸彉鐐规楠屽拰鐩稿叧鍒嗘瀽绛夋墜娈靛 PAR 鐨勭┖闂村垎甯冦�佹椂绌烘紨鍙樸�佺獊鍙樼壒寰佸強鍏跺彲鑳芥垚鍥犺繘琛屼簡鍒嗘瀽銆傜粨鏋滆〃鏄�:鈶� 绉﹀箔鍗楀寳鍦板尯 PAR 鐨勬椂闂村拰绌洪棿鍒嗗竷鐗瑰緛鏄庢樉,鍦ㄧ┖闂翠笂鍛堝寳楂樺崡浣庣殑鍒嗗竷鏍煎眬;鍦ㄥ鑺傚垎甯冧笂,澶忓銆佹槬瀛ｃ�佺瀛ｃ�佸啲瀛ｄ緷娆″噺灏忋�傗憽 52骞撮棿,璇ュ湴鍖哄勾 PAR 鏁翠綋鍛堟樉钁椾笅闄嶈秼鍔�,涓嬮檷閫熺巼鐢卞崡鍚戝寳,鐢变笢鍚戣タ閫掑噺;鏃堕棿鍙樺寲鏂归潰,鏄ュ PAR 鍛堢幇涓嶆樉钁楃殑涓婂崌瓒嬪娍,鍏朵綑瀛ｈ妭鍧囧憟涓嬮檷瓒嬪娍,澶忓鍑忓皬鏈�蹇�,鍏舵涓哄啲瀛�,绉嬪鏈�灏忋�傗憿 璇ュ湴鍖�89%鐨勭珯鐐瑰勾 PAR 瀛樺湪绐佸彉,绐佸彉绔欑偣涓殑85%鍙戠敓浜�1979-1983骞撮棿;澶忓89%鐨勭珯鐐瑰彂鐢熺獊鍙�,绐佸彉绔欑偣涓殑90%鍙戠敓浜�1979-1983骞撮棿;鍐68%鐨勭珯鐐瑰彂鐢熺獊鍙�,浣嗙獊鍙樻椂闂村悓姝ユ�у拰涓�鑷存�ц緝宸�;鏄ュ鍜岀瀛ｇ獊鍙樼幇璞′笉鐢氭槑鏄俱�傗懀 姘斿�欏彉鍖�(椋庨�熶笅闄�)銆佸煄甯傚寲杩涚▼鍔犲揩浠ュ強宸ヤ笟鐢熶骇瀵艰嚧鐨勬皵婧惰兌澧炲鏄鑷� PAR 鏄捐憲涓嬮檷鐨勪富瑕佸師鍥�,鑰岀伀灞辩垎鍙戝紩鍙戠殑姘旀憾鑳跺鍔犲垯鏄� PAR 娉㈠姩鐨勪富瑕佸師鍥犮��
鏉庢枌, 鏉庝附濞�, 鏉庢捣婊�, 绛�. 2011. 1960-2005骞存緶娌ф睙娴佸煙鏋佺闄嶆按鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛[J]. , 30(3): 290-298. [LiB, Li LJ, Li HB, et al. 2011. Changes in precipitation extremes in Lancang River Basin during 1960-2005[J]. , 30(3): 290-298. ]
Extreme precipitation is an important aspect of climate change. According to the estimation using the latest climate models, the extreme precipitation events will become frequent in a warming world. Significant increases of the very heavy precipitation and decreases of light and moderate precipitations have indeed been observed over most land areas of the globe in the last few decades. The Lancang River, with a relative altitude difference of about 5000 m, flows through 13 latitudes and 6 climatic zones. It is rarely seen in the world and has important scientific values for climatology, hydrology, geography and ecology. Since 1960, the basin has experienced a significant increase in temperature like most parts of the world. Studying the changes of extreme precipitation events in the basin in the context of global warming is of great importance. Based on a daily precipitation dataset of 35 meteorological observation stations distributed in and around the Lancang River basin, trends of precipitation amounts, precipitation days and daily precipitation intensity during a 45-year period (1961-2005) of 4 different classes ranging from less than 5, 5-10, 10-50 and larger than 50 mm were analyzed, and the precipitation frequency and the proportion of precipitation amount of each precipitation class were calculated. The result showed that all the indexes varied spatially, and for the basin as a whole, the frequency of the extreme events increased obviously. Analysis of a typical station indicated that the increase of extreme precipitation and the randomness of the climatic system might be closely related with each other.
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Princeton University, USA
鏉庡弻鍙�, 寤跺啗骞�, 涓囦匠. 2012. 鍏ㄧ悆姘斿�欏彉鍖栦笅绉﹀箔鍗楀寳姘旀俯鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛[J]. , 32(7): 853-858. [Li SS, Yan JP, WanJ. 2012. The characteristics of temperature change in Qinling Mountains[J]. , 32(7): 853-858. ]
Qinling range has been recognized as the geo-ecological boundary between subtropical and warm-temperate zones in the eastern China, which is the advantage of regional area to study global change. This article, based on the meteorological data of the 61 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains (1961-2009), selecting the contour 1 000 m in southern piedmont as the ecological boundary line, analyzed the fundamental characteristics, spatio-temporal distribution and reasons of temperature change using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation test, analysis of wavelets, Kriging interpolation and other Climate diagnosis method. The results show that the average temperature, extreme high and low temperature in the south and north Qinling Mountains were in increase trend, but there was a certain difference in the sharp change time and range. The tilt rate of annual average temperature in the south of Qinling Mountains is the lowest (0.121鈩�/10 a),then is in the north of Qinling Mountains (0.203鈩�/10 a),and they all lower than the other regions of China (0.26卤0.032鈩�/10 a). The temperature mutation of the north of Qinling Mountains (1995) occurred earlier than that of the sorth (1998), which was later than the other regions of China (1993). Based the climate characteristics, it was found that the influence of climate change mainly reflects nature and human activities.
College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062,China
椹缓鍗�, 鍗冩��閬�, 绠″崕, 绛�. 2004. 绉﹀箔—榛勬樊骞冲師浜ょ晫甯﹁嚜鐒跺湴鐞嗚嫢骞茬壒寰佸垎鏋�[J]. , 24(6): 666-673. [Ma JH, Qian HS, GuanH, et al. 2004. Some features of physical geography in transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain[J]. , 24(6): 666-673. ]
The boundary of the transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain was divided first in this paper, then some features of physical geography in the transitional region were discussed. (1) The east boundary of the transitional region is at the contour about 100 m, and the west boundary is at the contour about 500 m. The area of the transitional region is about 26 000 km 2 ,which makes up 15.9% of total area in Henan Province.(2) The natural features in the transitional region possess transitional characters evidently in two directions, one is from the western mountain to the eastern plain and the other is from southern subtropical zone to northern temperate zone. (3) Torrential rain especially for strong torrential rain is frequent in the transition region, and there are many torrential rain centers, such as Lushan torrential rain center, Biyang torrential rain center, and so on. A majority of torrential rain is distributed among 100-200 m above sea level. (4) The winter temperature at 100-400 m above sea level in the transitional region is not only higher than in Huanghuai Plain where its altitude is lower than the transition region's, but also higher than in Qinling Mountains where its altitude is higher than the transitional region's. The highest temperature in January appears at 350-400 m above sea level in the transitional region. The warmer belt in the transitional region is called warm slope belt, of which thickness varies from 100 m to 250 m above sea level. (5) Torrential rain and warm slope belt in the transitional region were formed by atmospheric circulation and local terrain. Frequent torrential rain and warm slope belt had tremendous influence on soil properties, plant distribution and local climate in the transitional region.
College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475001
Since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, new observations have further proved that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. Each of the last three successive decades before 2012 has been successively warmer at global mean surface temperature than any preceding decade since 1850. 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years. From 1998 to 2012, the rate of warming of the global land surface slowed down, but it did not reflect the long-term trends in climate change. The ocean has warmed, and the upper 75 m of the ocean warmed by more than 0.11鈩� per decade since 1970. Over the period of 1971 to 2010, 93% of the net energy increase in the Earth's climate system was stored in the oceans. The rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated, which was up to 3.2 mm yr-1 between 1993 and 2010. Anthropogenic global ocean carbon stocks were likely to have increased and caused acidification of the ocean surface water. Since 1971, the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Since 1979, the Arctic sea ice extent deceased at 3.5% to 4.1% per decade, and the Antarctic sea ice extent in the same period increased by 1.2% to 1.8% per decade. The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased. Since the early 1980s, the permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions. Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, changes in the water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, global mean sea level rise, and changes in climate extremes. The largest contribution to the increase in the anthropogenic radiative forcing was by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 since 1750. It led to more than half of global warming since the 1950s (with 95 % confidence). It is predicted using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that the global mean surface temperature will continue to rise for the end of this century, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and heavy precipitation will increase, and precipitation will present a trend of "the dry becomes drier, the wet becomes wetter". The temperature of the upper ocean will increase by 0.6 to 2.0鈩� compared to the period of 1986 to 2005, heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean which will affect ocean circulation, and sea level will rise by 0.26 to 0.82 m in 2100. Cryosphere will continue to warm. To control global warming, humans need to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. If the increase in temperature is higher than 2鈩� than before industrialization, the mean annual economic losses worldwide will reach 0.2% to 2.0% of income, and cause large-scale irreversible effects, including death, disease, food insecurity, inland flooding and water logging, and rural drinking water and irrigation difficulties that affect human security. If taking prompt actions, however, it is still possible to limit the increase in temperature within 2鈩�. To curb the gradually out-of-control global warming and achieve the goal of sustainable development of the human society, global efforts to reduce emissions are needed.
1. State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
鑻忓潳鎱�, 寤跺啗骞�, 鐧芥櫠, 绛�. 2012. 娌冲崡鐪佸鍐呮樊娌冲崡鍖楁皵鍊欏彉鍖栫殑灏忛害閫傚簲鎬ф瘮杈�[J]. , 31(1): 63-71. [Su KH, Yan JP, BaiJ, et al. 2012. Comparative studies on degree of adaption of wheat under climate change between areas south and north of Huaihe River in Henan Province[J]. , 31(1): 63-71. ]
Degree of adaption is one of the key components of adaptability processes under climate change. In this paper, we established the concepts and methods of degree of adaption (DA) in order to comparably analyze the DA of wheat in area south and north of the Huaihe River in Henan Province. Results demonstrate that the climate dividing line is not the mainstream areas of Huaihe River, but the largest tributary of the area is located in were the further north, about 300 km away from the original zone. And the spatial variation of DA of winter wheat is approximately distributed around this area. The DA of the area, which is to the south of the dividing line of the Huaihe River, is 62.57%, which is higher than 56.81% in the northern area. Therefore there is still a large space which requires the human regulation and control to adapt the wheat to the climate change. And the pressure on human control in the northern area is greater than in the southern. As regards to the annual change, accompanied by the abrupt climate change in the 1980s, the temperature DA surged but the moisture DA plunged. In the following periods when the climate became stable, DA kept an increasing tendency. However the increasing speed of DA declined in the early 21st century when a plunge trend appeared, indicating that the negative impact on wheat from global warming has become increasingly prominent.
1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China; 2. Center of Climate in Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3. The First Senior High School of Qinyang in Henan province, Qinyang 454550, China
鐜嬩細鍐�, 鑼冨彲. 2013. 涓滀簹瀛ｉ杩戝嚑鍗佸勾鏉ョ殑涓昏鍙樺寲鐗瑰緛[J]. , 37(2): 313-318. [Wang HJ, FanK. 2013. Recent changes in the East Asian monsoon. , 37(2): 313-318. ]
Studies on the recent changes of the summer and winter monsoons, with priority on decadal-interdecadal scales, are reviewed briefly in this paper. The major changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) include a weakening of the EASM and a shift in precipitation patterns at the end of 1970s; an increase in South China precipitation after 1992-1993; a decrease in precipitation in the middle-and-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and an increase in precipitation in the Huaihe River valley after 1999; and instability in the relationship between the EASM and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The changes in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) include a weakening of the EAWM and its interannual variability after the mid-1980s, an increase in winter snowfall in Northeast China after the mid-1980s, and a weakening of the EAWM-ENSO relationship after the mid-1970s. In addition, the impact of the autumn Arctic sea ice decline on the winter snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is discussed. These changes in EASM and EAWM indicate that the extreme climate and phenology have been significantly altered.
鐜嬭壋濮�, 闂嘲. 2014. 1960-2010骞翠腑鍥介檷姘村尯鍩熷垎寮傚強骞翠唬闄呭彉鍖栫壒寰�[J]. , 33(10): 1354-1363. [Wang YJ, YanF. 2014. Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010[J]. , 33(10): 1354-1363. ]
Based on precipitation data from 1840 meteorological stations in China in 1960-2010, this study examines the regional differentiation of precipitation and characteristics of its change in the recent 50 years. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated EOF (REOF) methods, precipitation in China is divided into 11 regions, which are grouped into four areas according to their geographic locations: East China area (North China, Huanghuai and Jianghuai, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and Jiangnan and South China regions), Northwest China area (Midwest Inner Mongolia, western part of the Northwest China, and eastern part of the Northwest China regions), Southwest China area (southeastern part of the Southwest China, western part of the Southwest China, and northeastern part of the Southwest China regions), and Northeast China. Compared with the results of previous studies, precipitation regions derived with the REOF method in combination with detailed long time series precipitation data are consistent with the regional differentiation of actual precipitation and the climate division of China. The analysis shows that precipitation in the East China area changed in the late 1970s, from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, and in the beginning of the 21st century respectively, featuring recurrent south-north shifts of the rain belt in both directions, which were mainly influenced by the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and atmospheric circulation. Precipitation in the Northwest China area experienced a major change in the mid-1980s. The western part of the Northwest China area became wet compared to the dry period in the previous years, whereas the eastern part of the area became dry compared to the previous wet years. The decreasing precipitation in the eastern Northwest China area was related to the continually weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon, while the increasing precipitation in the western Northwest China area were mainly due to the anomalous high moisture transport from the Arabia Sea and the Caspian Sea. Precipitation in the Northeast China area underwent similar abrupt changes in the early 1980s and the late 1990s respectively-it changed from the previous near normal level to high in the early 1980s, and from high to low in the late 1990s. The changes were influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon on the one hand, and related to the anomalous moisture transport form the Northwest Pacific Ocean on the other. Evident changes in precipitation have been detected over each region in the Southwest China area-precipitation changes over the western and northeastern parts of this region were in opposite directions before 2000. Precipitation in the Southwest China area is not only influenced by the terrain of the Tibetan Plateau, but also affected by the East Asian monsoon and the subtropical high, which cause complicated changes in precipitation of the area.
1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
寤跺啗骞�, 閮戝畤. 2001. 绉﹀箔鍗楀寳鍦板尯鐜鍙樺寲鍝嶅簲姣旇緝鐮旂┒[J]. , 20(5): 576-582. [Yan JP, ZhengY. 2001. A comparative study on environmental change response over the northern and the southern regions of the Qinling Mountains[J]. , 20(5): 576-582. ]
Based on the data up to 1999 from the hydro-climatological departments, this paper analyzes the climatic dividing implications of Qinling Mountains in regional response to the process of global warming, due to which the Grades of Dryness/wetness (GDW) in 100-year scale show that the northern region has entered an arid period, and the southern, a humid period. At decade scale, the D-value of annual average air temperature over Southern Shaanxi (Hanjiang Valley) and Central Shaanxi Plain (Guanzhong Plain) has narrowed, i.e. the former with slight change and the latter with rapid increase in temperature. Both regions are arid with decease in precipitation D-value, namely, the plain becomes warmer while the south drier. Qinling Mountains play a predominant role in the climatic dividing. The runoff coefficient (RC) of Weihe River decreases synchronously with that of Hanjiang River due to climate warming . The RC of Weihe dropped from 0.2 in the 1950s to less then 0.1 in the 1990s.Weihe valley (Guanzhong Plain) is practically an arid area as a result of the shortage of water .The successive 0.5 and 1.0鈩� temperature anomaly over China marks, perhaps, the important transition period in which the environment becomes more vulnerable than before .The study shows the obvious trend of environmental aridity, which is of help to the understanding of regional response to the global climate change.
1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
Donat M G. Alexand er L V, YangH. 2013. Global land -based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes[J]. 94(7): 997-1006.
Donat, M. G. 1,2 ;Alexander, L. V. 1,2 ;Yang, H. 1,2 ;Durre, I. 3 ;Vose, R. 3 ;Caesar, J. 4 ;
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Sen RS, RouaultM. 2013. Spatial patterns of seasonal scale trends in extreme hourly precipitation in South Africa[J]. , 39: 151-157.
Hourly precipitation data from 1998 to 2007 spread across 102 stations in South Africa were analyzed for trends in extreme hourly precipitation events. The analyses were conducted at the seasonal scale for summer and winter for nine different variables. The results of our analysis showed predominantly positive trends during summer, with the strongest trends concentrated in the coastal areas in the southeast. The spatial variations in the trends were reversed during the winter season, with negative trends observed in the coastal areas and positive trends occurring in the interior. The summer patterns also overlap with areas experiencing overall increasing trends in annual extreme precipitation as well as a stronger diurnal cycle identified in recently published literature. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sen Roy, Shouraseni 1 ;Rouault, Mathieu 2,3 ;
... 鍦ㄦ皵鍊欏彉鏆栬儗鏅笅,鍏ㄧ悆澶氭暟鍖哄煙鏋佺闄嶆按鍛堢幇澧炲姞瓒嬪娍,浣嗗苟鏈儚鏋佺姘旀俯鍏锋湁鍏ㄧ悆涓�鑷存��(Donat et al, 2013),缇庡浗銆佸崡闈炲拰鍔犲嫆姣旂瓑鍖哄煙鐮旂┒浜﹀彂鐜颁笂杩拌寰�(Sen et al, 2013 ...