李双双, 杨赛霓, 刘宪锋. .1960-2013年秦岭—淮河南北极端降水时空变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, ,34(3): 354-363
LI Shuangshuang, YANG Saini, LIU Xianfeng. .Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region and influencing factors during 1960-2013[J]. Progress In Geography,,34(3): 354-363
Spatiotemporal variability of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region and influencing factors during 1960-2013
LI Shuangshuang1,2, YANG Saini1,2, LIU Xianfeng1,3
1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. College of Resource Sciences and Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Based on the monthly precipitation of a 0.5°×0.5° grid dataset and the daily precipitation observations of 135 meteorological stations released by the National Meteorological Information Center of China, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region during 1960-2013, using the methods of trend analysis, Sen+Mann-Kendall model, and correlation analysis. More specifically, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO and the observed extreme precipitation. The results are as follows: (1) the precipitation showed an increasing trend in the lower reach of the Yangtze River and a decreasing tendency in the other regions; (2) extreme precipitation analysis indicates a declining trend in rainy days and an increasing trend in precipitation intensity. The number of continuous drought events increased. Spatially, the regions with increasing intensity of extreme precipitation were mainly distributed in the Qinling-Bashan Mountains and the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Yellow River, whereas there were more drought events in the Guanzhong Plain, Wushan Mountains, and Sichuan Basin; (3) Extreme precipitation had a close relationship with ENSO in the study region. In El Niño years, more precipitation was found in the spring but there was less precipitation in the summer and the whole year. In La Niña years, there was less precipitation in the spring and more precipitation in the autumn and the whole year. The responses of extreme precipitation events to El Niño exhibited spatial differences. Most of the regions with decreasing extreme precipitation in El Niño years were distributed in the lower reach of the Yellow River, the Guanzhong Plain and Qinling-Bashan Mountains, as well as the Sichuan Basin, while the region with increasing extreme precipitation was the Huaihe Plain. The lower reach of the Yangtze River and the Wushan Mountains showed no clear response to ENSO.
climate change; extreme precipitation; spatiotemporal change; north and south of the Qinling -Huaihe region
极端降水指数定义是基于世界气象组织(WMO)气候委员会(CCI)、全球气候研究计划(WCRP)气候变化和可预测性计划(CLIVAR)气候变化检测、监测和指标专家组(ETCCDMI)确定的“ 气候变化检测和指标(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)” , 该方法已被广泛应用于极端气候事件研究中。本文定义16个极端降水指标, 包括四大类：相对指数、绝对指数、强度指数和持续性指数(表1)。
表1 16个极端降水指数定义Tab.1 Definition of the 16 extreme precipitation indices
年内日降水量≥ 1 mm日数/d
年内日降水量≥ 5 mm日数/d
年内日降水量≥ 10 mm日数/d
年内日降水量≥ 25 mm日数/d
年内降水量与日降水量≥ 1 mm 日数之比/(mm/d)
年内日降水量连续< 1 mm日数最大值/d
年内日降水量连续≥ 1 mm日数最大值/d
年内日降水量≥ 1 mm降水量之和/mm
表1 16个极端降水指数定义Tab.1 Definition of the 16 extreme precipitation indices
图2 1960-2013年秦岭— 淮河南北降水变化特征 (图中蓝色阴影为降水偏多期, 红色阴影为降水偏少期, 降水距平时段为1971-2000年)Fig.2 Variation of precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013 (The blue shaded area shows positive precipitation anomaly; the red shaded area shows negative precipitation anomaly; the baseline period of precipitation is 1971-2000)
4.2 秦岭— 淮河南北极端降水时空变化特征
(1) 持续性指标。1960-2013年, 秦岭— 淮河南北53.0%站点连续无雨日数(CDD)呈上升趋势, 整体上升速率为0.5 d/10 a, 远高于黄淮海流域变化速率0.05 d/10 a (Zhang et al, 2014)。在空间上, 秦巴山地所有站点均呈上升趋势, 黄河下游和四川盆地呈上升趋势站点比例分别为66.7%和50.0%, 长江下游(85.7%)、关中平原(66.7%)和巫山山区(60.0%)CDD呈下降趋势站点比重均超过50.0%; 81.0%站点连续降水日数(CWD)呈下降趋势, 整体下降速率为0.2 d/10 a, 高于黄淮海流域0.1 d/10 a(Zhang et al, 2014), 但低于中国南方地区0.5 d/10 a的下降速率(任正果等, 2014)。空间上, 除长江下游、黄河下游和淮河平原部分站点呈上升趋势外, 其他各区均呈下降趋势; 59.0%站点生长季降水(GPRCP)呈下降趋势(-7.8 mm/10 a), 其中巫山山区所有站点均呈下降趋势, 长江下游(75.0%)和秦巴山地(53.8%)GPRCP呈现上升趋势。可以看出, 秦岭— 淮河南北持续性降水日数在下降, 持续性干旱日数在增加, 生长季降水以下降趋势为主, 区域面临干旱风险逐渐增大(图3, 表2)。
(2) 强度指数。在1日最大降水量(Rx1day)变化趋势上, 秦岭— 淮河南北有67.0%站点呈上升趋势, 整体上升速率为0.6 mm/10 a, 与黄淮海流域-0.6 mm/10 a下降趋势形成鲜明对比(Zhang et al, 2014), 而且上升区集中于长江下游、秦巴山地和四川盆地; 连续5日最大降水量(Rx5day)有54.0%站点呈上升趋势, 整体上升速率为0.2 mm/10 a, 低于南方地区1.7 mm/10 a上升速率(任正果等, 2014), 高于黄淮海流域1.9 mm/10 a的下降趋势(Zhang et al, 2014)。就降水强度(SDII)而言, 秦岭— 淮河南北有74.0%站点呈上升趋势, 长江下游和秦巴山地降水强度增加趋势尤为明显, 上升趋势站点比重分别为92.9%和92.3%(图3, 表2)。
图3 秦岭— 淮河南北极端降水变化时空分布特征 (为了统一图中颜色指示意义, 将连续无雨日数(CDD)变化趋势取反向, 图中红色渲染表示极端降水指标呈下降趋势, 区域趋于干旱; 绿色渲染表示极端指标呈上升趋势, 区域趋于湿润)Fig.3 Spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation in north and south of the Qinling-Huaihe region (In order to use a consistent color scheme, the trend of CDD was multiplied by -1; red color indicates a decreeing trend of extreme precipitation index values; green color indicates a increasing trend of extreme precipitation index values)
表2 1960-2013年秦岭— 淮河南北极端降水变化趋势及其站点比重Tab.2 Trend of extreme precipitation and proportion of stations that showed the same trend in north and south of the Qingling-Huaihe region, 1960-2013
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Based on the records of January average temperature during 1959 to 2009 from 39 meteorological sites in the Qinling Mountains, we built the spatial database of January temperature by using space interpolation method based on DEM with the consideration of the influence of terrain factors on the temperature field. Also we extracted the 0℃ isothermal curve and examined the changes in the January average temperature and the 0℃ isothermal curve in the Qinling Mountains during the last 50 years. The January average temperature showed a rising trend at a rate of about 0.2℃/10a, and the 0℃ isothermal curve rose by 143.7 m averagely in the Qinling Mountains during the last 50 years. On longitude, the largest variation in the 0℃ isothermal curve was found in the region of 107°-109°E, where the height increased by 166.2 m during the last 50 years. This value is significantly higher than that in both eastern and western sections of Qinling Mountains; the temporal mutations point for the largest increase in the January temperature was found in 1993. The 0℃ isothermal curve after the mutations point was raised higher by 113.82 m averagely than before.
1. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China; 2. Public Meteorological Service Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
金祖辉, 陶诗言. 1999. ENSO循环与中国东部地区夏季和冬季降水关系的研究[J]. , 23(6): 663-672. [Jin ZH, Tao SY. 1999. A study on the relationships between ENSO cycle and rainfalls during summer and winter in eastern China[J]. , 23(6): 663-672. ]
蒋冲, 朱枫, 杨陈, 等. 2013. 秦岭南北地区光合有效辐射时空变化及突变特征[J]. , 32(3): 435-446. [JiangC, ZhuF, YangC, et al. Distribution and change of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains, China[J]. , 32(3): 435-446. ]
Based on 52-year (1960-2011) daily data from 47 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of Qinling Mountains, the annual and seasonal Photosynthetically Active Radiations (PAR) were calculated with equations of Angstrom and FAO Penman-Monteith. The spatial distribution, change trends and their causes were analyzed and detected with spatial analysis method of spline interpolation, Pettitt abrupt change point detection method and correlation analysis between PAR and relative factors. The results were as followed: (1) the PAR became weaker from north part to south part, i.e. from northern region of Qinling Mountains (NQ), to southern region of Qinling Mountains (SQ), to Han River Basin (HB) and to Valleys of Ba and Wu Mountain Areas (VBW). PAR in summer was the highest, followed by spring, autumn and winter. The distribution of PAR in spring, autumn and winter showed the same spatial pattern as annual PAR , but in summer, PAR in NQ is also the highest, then HB and VBW, and SQ being the lowest one. (2) PAR declined significantly in past 52a, the declining rates became smaller from south and east part to north and west part of this region. Except for an insignificant increase in spring, PAR decreased in other seasons, and the rate in summer was fastest, followed by that in winter and autumn. The maximum and minimum PAR appeared in 1960s-1970s and 2000s respectively in spring, summer and autumn. There were almost half of stations showing an increase of PAR mainly in west and central parts, and the other half stations showing decrease in spring. PAR of 79% of stations decreased in autumn, and the increasing stations were also located in west and central parts. PAR in summer and winter declined in most stations, and the decreasing rate was bigger in south part of Qingling Mountains than in north part. (3) 89% of stations had abrupt change points of yearly and summer PAR , and about 85% and 90% of them happened between 1979 and 1983, respectively. There were no obvious abrupt change points in spring or autumn. (4) Climate change (wind speed declining), fast urbanization and more aerosol emission from industrial production were the main reasons for the continuous decline of PAR , and the aerosol emitted from volcanoes was the main reason for fluctuation of PAR .
1. College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China; 2. Institute of Soil andWater Conservation, CAS and Ministry ofWater Resources, Yangling 712100, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
基于秦岭南北地区47个气象站1960-2011年的逐日气象数据,通过Angstrom方程和Penman-Monteith公式计算了各站点的光合有效辐射( PAR ),并借助Spline空间插值、Pettitt突变点检验和相关分析等手段对 PAR 的空间分布、时空演变、突变特征及其可能成因进行了分析。结果表明:① 秦岭南北地区 PAR 的时间和空间分布特征明显,在空间上呈北高南低的分布格局;在季节分布上,夏季、春季、秋季、冬季依次减小。② 52年间,该地区年 PAR 整体呈显著下降趋势,下降速率由南向北,由东向西递减;时间变化方面,春季 PAR 呈现不显著的上升趋势,其余季节均呈下降趋势,夏季减小最快,其次为冬季,秋季最小。③ 该地区89%的站点年 PAR 存在突变,突变站点中的85%发生于1979-1983年间;夏季89%的站点发生突变,突变站点中的90%发生于1979-1983年间;冬季68%的站点发生突变,但突变时间同步性和一致性较差;春季和秋季突变现象不甚明显。④ 气候变化(风速下降)、城市化进程加快以及工业生产导致的气溶胶增多是导致 PAR 显著下降的主要原因,而火山爆发引发的气溶胶增加则是 PAR 波动的主要原因。
李斌, 李丽娟, 李海滨, 等. 2011. 1960-2005年澜沧江流域极端降水变化特征[J]. , 30(3): 290-298. [LiB, Li LJ, Li HB, et al. 2011. Changes in precipitation extremes in Lancang River Basin during 1960-2005[J]. , 30(3): 290-298. ]
Extreme precipitation is an important aspect of climate change. According to the estimation using the latest climate models, the extreme precipitation events will become frequent in a warming world. Significant increases of the very heavy precipitation and decreases of light and moderate precipitations have indeed been observed over most land areas of the globe in the last few decades. The Lancang River, with a relative altitude difference of about 5000 m, flows through 13 latitudes and 6 climatic zones. It is rarely seen in the world and has important scientific values for climatology, hydrology, geography and ecology. Since 1960, the basin has experienced a significant increase in temperature like most parts of the world. Studying the changes of extreme precipitation events in the basin in the context of global warming is of great importance. Based on a daily precipitation dataset of 35 meteorological observation stations distributed in and around the Lancang River basin, trends of precipitation amounts, precipitation days and daily precipitation intensity during a 45-year period (1961-2005) of 4 different classes ranging from less than 5, 5-10, 10-50 and larger than 50 mm were analyzed, and the precipitation frequency and the proportion of precipitation amount of each precipitation class were calculated. The result showed that all the indexes varied spatially, and for the basin as a whole, the frequency of the extreme events increased obviously. Analysis of a typical station indicated that the increase of extreme precipitation and the randomness of the climatic system might be closely related with each other.
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Princeton University, USA
李双双, 延军平, 万佳. 2012. 全球气候变化下秦岭南北气温变化特征[J]. , 32(7): 853-858. [Li SS, Yan JP, WanJ. 2012. The characteristics of temperature change in Qinling Mountains[J]. , 32(7): 853-858. ]
Qinling range has been recognized as the geo-ecological boundary between subtropical and warm-temperate zones in the eastern China, which is the advantage of regional area to study global change. This article, based on the meteorological data of the 61 meteorological stations in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling Mountains (1961-2009), selecting the contour 1 000 m in southern piedmont as the ecological boundary line, analyzed the fundamental characteristics, spatio-temporal distribution and reasons of temperature change using methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall mutation test, analysis of wavelets, Kriging interpolation and other Climate diagnosis method. The results show that the average temperature, extreme high and low temperature in the south and north Qinling Mountains were in increase trend, but there was a certain difference in the sharp change time and range. The tilt rate of annual average temperature in the south of Qinling Mountains is the lowest (0.121℃/10 a),then is in the north of Qinling Mountains (0.203℃/10 a),and they all lower than the other regions of China (0.26±0.032℃/10 a). The temperature mutation of the north of Qinling Mountains (1995) occurred earlier than that of the sorth (1998), which was later than the other regions of China (1993). Based the climate characteristics, it was found that the influence of climate change mainly reflects nature and human activities.
College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710062,China
马建华, 千怀遂, 管华, 等. 2004. 秦岭—黄淮平原交界带自然地理若干特征分析[J]. , 24(6): 666-673. [Ma JH, Qian HS, GuanH, et al. 2004. Some features of physical geography in transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain[J]. , 24(6): 666-673. ]
The boundary of the transitional region between Qinling Mountains and Huanghuai Plain was divided first in this paper, then some features of physical geography in the transitional region were discussed. (1) The east boundary of the transitional region is at the contour about 100 m, and the west boundary is at the contour about 500 m. The area of the transitional region is about 26 000 km 2 ,which makes up 15.9% of total area in Henan Province.(2) The natural features in the transitional region possess transitional characters evidently in two directions, one is from the western mountain to the eastern plain and the other is from southern subtropical zone to northern temperate zone. (3) Torrential rain especially for strong torrential rain is frequent in the transition region, and there are many torrential rain centers, such as Lushan torrential rain center, Biyang torrential rain center, and so on. A majority of torrential rain is distributed among 100-200 m above sea level. (4) The winter temperature at 100-400 m above sea level in the transitional region is not only higher than in Huanghuai Plain where its altitude is lower than the transition region's, but also higher than in Qinling Mountains where its altitude is higher than the transitional region's. The highest temperature in January appears at 350-400 m above sea level in the transitional region. The warmer belt in the transitional region is called warm slope belt, of which thickness varies from 100 m to 250 m above sea level. (5) Torrential rain and warm slope belt in the transitional region were formed by atmospheric circulation and local terrain. Frequent torrential rain and warm slope belt had tremendous influence on soil properties, plant distribution and local climate in the transitional region.
College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475001
Since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007, new observations have further proved that the warming of the global climate system is unequivocal. Each of the last three successive decades before 2012 has been successively warmer at global mean surface temperature than any preceding decade since 1850. 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years. From 1998 to 2012, the rate of warming of the global land surface slowed down, but it did not reflect the long-term trends in climate change. The ocean has warmed, and the upper 75 m of the ocean warmed by more than 0.11℃ per decade since 1970. Over the period of 1971 to 2010, 93% of the net energy increase in the Earth's climate system was stored in the oceans. The rate of global mean sea level rise has accelerated, which was up to 3.2 mm yr-1 between 1993 and 2010. Anthropogenic global ocean carbon stocks were likely to have increased and caused acidification of the ocean surface water. Since 1971, the glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass. Since 1979, the Arctic sea ice extent deceased at 3.5% to 4.1% per decade, and the Antarctic sea ice extent in the same period increased by 1.2% to 1.8% per decade. The extent of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased. Since the early 1980s, the permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions. Human influence has been detected in the warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, changes in the water cycle, reductions in snow and ice, global mean sea level rise, and changes in climate extremes. The largest contribution to the increase in the anthropogenic radiative forcing was by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 since 1750. It led to more than half of global warming since the 1950s (with 95 % confidence). It is predicted using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) that the global mean surface temperature will continue to rise for the end of this century, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and heavy precipitation will increase, and precipitation will present a trend of "the dry becomes drier, the wet becomes wetter". The temperature of the upper ocean will increase by 0.6 to 2.0℃ compared to the period of 1986 to 2005, heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean which will affect ocean circulation, and sea level will rise by 0.26 to 0.82 m in 2100. Cryosphere will continue to warm. To control global warming, humans need to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. If the increase in temperature is higher than 2℃ than before industrialization, the mean annual economic losses worldwide will reach 0.2% to 2.0% of income, and cause large-scale irreversible effects, including death, disease, food insecurity, inland flooding and water logging, and rural drinking water and irrigation difficulties that affect human security. If taking prompt actions, however, it is still possible to limit the increase in temperature within 2℃. To curb the gradually out-of-control global warming and achieve the goal of sustainable development of the human society, global efforts to reduce emissions are needed.
1. State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 2. China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
苏坤慧, 延军平, 白晶, 等. 2012. 河南省境内淮河南北气候变化的小麦适应性比较[J]. , 31(1): 63-71. [Su KH, Yan JP, BaiJ, et al. 2012. Comparative studies on degree of adaption of wheat under climate change between areas south and north of Huaihe River in Henan Province[J]. , 31(1): 63-71. ]
Degree of adaption is one of the key components of adaptability processes under climate change. In this paper, we established the concepts and methods of degree of adaption (DA) in order to comparably analyze the DA of wheat in area south and north of the Huaihe River in Henan Province. Results demonstrate that the climate dividing line is not the mainstream areas of Huaihe River, but the largest tributary of the area is located in were the further north, about 300 km away from the original zone. And the spatial variation of DA of winter wheat is approximately distributed around this area. The DA of the area, which is to the south of the dividing line of the Huaihe River, is 62.57%, which is higher than 56.81% in the northern area. Therefore there is still a large space which requires the human regulation and control to adapt the wheat to the climate change. And the pressure on human control in the northern area is greater than in the southern. As regards to the annual change, accompanied by the abrupt climate change in the 1980s, the temperature DA surged but the moisture DA plunged. In the following periods when the climate became stable, DA kept an increasing tendency. However the increasing speed of DA declined in the early 21st century when a plunge trend appeared, indicating that the negative impact on wheat from global warming has become increasingly prominent.
1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China; 2. Center of Climate in Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3. The First Senior High School of Qinyang in Henan province, Qinyang 454550, China
王会军, 范可. 2013. 东亚季风近几十年来的主要变化特征[J]. , 37(2): 313-318. [Wang HJ, FanK. 2013. Recent changes in the East Asian monsoon. , 37(2): 313-318. ]
Studies on the recent changes of the summer and winter monsoons, with priority on decadal-interdecadal scales, are reviewed briefly in this paper. The major changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) include a weakening of the EASM and a shift in precipitation patterns at the end of 1970s; an increase in South China precipitation after 1992-1993; a decrease in precipitation in the middle-and-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and an increase in precipitation in the Huaihe River valley after 1999; and instability in the relationship between the EASM and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The changes in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) include a weakening of the EAWM and its interannual variability after the mid-1980s, an increase in winter snowfall in Northeast China after the mid-1980s, and a weakening of the EAWM-ENSO relationship after the mid-1970s. In addition, the impact of the autumn Arctic sea ice decline on the winter snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is discussed. These changes in EASM and EAWM indicate that the extreme climate and phenology have been significantly altered.
王艳姣, 闫峰. 2014. 1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J]. , 33(10): 1354-1363. [Wang YJ, YanF. 2014. Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010[J]. , 33(10): 1354-1363. ]
Based on precipitation data from 1840 meteorological stations in China in 1960-2010, this study examines the regional differentiation of precipitation and characteristics of its change in the recent 50 years. Using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated EOF (REOF) methods, precipitation in China is divided into 11 regions, which are grouped into four areas according to their geographic locations: East China area (North China, Huanghuai and Jianghuai, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and Jiangnan and South China regions), Northwest China area (Midwest Inner Mongolia, western part of the Northwest China, and eastern part of the Northwest China regions), Southwest China area (southeastern part of the Southwest China, western part of the Southwest China, and northeastern part of the Southwest China regions), and Northeast China. Compared with the results of previous studies, precipitation regions derived with the REOF method in combination with detailed long time series precipitation data are consistent with the regional differentiation of actual precipitation and the climate division of China. The analysis shows that precipitation in the East China area changed in the late 1970s, from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, and in the beginning of the 21st century respectively, featuring recurrent south-north shifts of the rain belt in both directions, which were mainly influenced by the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and atmospheric circulation. Precipitation in the Northwest China area experienced a major change in the mid-1980s. The western part of the Northwest China area became wet compared to the dry period in the previous years, whereas the eastern part of the area became dry compared to the previous wet years. The decreasing precipitation in the eastern Northwest China area was related to the continually weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon, while the increasing precipitation in the western Northwest China area were mainly due to the anomalous high moisture transport from the Arabia Sea and the Caspian Sea. Precipitation in the Northeast China area underwent similar abrupt changes in the early 1980s and the late 1990s respectively-it changed from the previous near normal level to high in the early 1980s, and from high to low in the late 1990s. The changes were influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon on the one hand, and related to the anomalous moisture transport form the Northwest Pacific Ocean on the other. Evident changes in precipitation have been detected over each region in the Southwest China area-precipitation changes over the western and northeastern parts of this region were in opposite directions before 2000. Precipitation in the Southwest China area is not only influenced by the terrain of the Tibetan Plateau, but also affected by the East Asian monsoon and the subtropical high, which cause complicated changes in precipitation of the area.
1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Institute of Desertification Studies, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
延军平, 郑宇. 2001. 秦岭南北地区环境变化响应比较研究[J]. , 20(5): 576-582. [Yan JP, ZhengY. 2001. A comparative study on environmental change response over the northern and the southern regions of the Qinling Mountains[J]. , 20(5): 576-582. ]
Based on the data up to 1999 from the hydro-climatological departments, this paper analyzes the climatic dividing implications of Qinling Mountains in regional response to the process of global warming, due to which the Grades of Dryness/wetness (GDW) in 100-year scale show that the northern region has entered an arid period, and the southern, a humid period. At decade scale, the D-value of annual average air temperature over Southern Shaanxi (Hanjiang Valley) and Central Shaanxi Plain (Guanzhong Plain) has narrowed, i.e. the former with slight change and the latter with rapid increase in temperature. Both regions are arid with decease in precipitation D-value, namely, the plain becomes warmer while the south drier. Qinling Mountains play a predominant role in the climatic dividing. The runoff coefficient (RC) of Weihe River decreases synchronously with that of Hanjiang River due to climate warming . The RC of Weihe dropped from 0.2 in the 1950s to less then 0.1 in the 1990s.Weihe valley (Guanzhong Plain) is practically an arid area as a result of the shortage of water .The successive 0.5 and 1.0℃ temperature anomaly over China marks, perhaps, the important transition period in which the environment becomes more vulnerable than before .The study shows the obvious trend of environmental aridity, which is of help to the understanding of regional response to the global climate change.
1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
Donat M G. Alexand er L V, YangH. 2013. Global land -based datasets for monitoring climatic extremes[J]. 94(7): 997-1006.
Donat, M. G. 1,2 ;Alexander, L. V. 1,2 ;Yang, H. 1,2 ;Durre, I. 3 ;Vose, R. 3 ;Caesar, J. 4 ;
... Du et al, 2014 ...
... Zhao et al, 2014)、不同省域(Huang et al, 2014 ...
... Li et al, 2014 ...
... Liu et al, 2014 ...
... Monier et al, 2014 ...
Sen RS, RouaultM. 2013. Spatial patterns of seasonal scale trends in extreme hourly precipitation in South Africa[J]. , 39: 151-157.
Hourly precipitation data from 1998 to 2007 spread across 102 stations in South Africa were analyzed for trends in extreme hourly precipitation events. The analyses were conducted at the seasonal scale for summer and winter for nine different variables. The results of our analysis showed predominantly positive trends during summer, with the strongest trends concentrated in the coastal areas in the southeast. The spatial variations in the trends were reversed during the winter season, with negative trends observed in the coastal areas and positive trends occurring in the interior. The summer patterns also overlap with areas experiencing overall increasing trends in annual extreme precipitation as well as a stronger diurnal cycle identified in recently published literature. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sen Roy, Shouraseni 1 ;Rouault, Mathieu 2,3 ;
... 在气候变暖背景下,全球多数区域极端降水呈现增加趋势,但并未像极端气温具有全球一致性(Donat et al, 2013),美国、南非和加勒比等区域研究亦发现上述规律(Sen et al, 2013 ...