• •

### 博格达峰地区气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响

1. 兰州大学资源环境学院冰川与生态地理研究所, 兰州 730000
• 出版日期:2014-10-25 发布日期:2014-10-25
• 作者简介:

作者简介：何毅(1987-),男,甘肃会宁人,博士研究生,主要研究环境演变与全球变化,E-mail:heyi11@lzu.edu.cn

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41271024);中央高校自由探索—优秀研究生创新项目(Lzujbky-2014-274)

### Climate variation and glacier response in the Bogda region, Tianshan Mountains

Yi HE(), Taibao YANG()

1. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Institution of Glaciology and Ecogeography, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
• Online:2014-10-25 Published:2014-10-25

20世纪中叶以来,随着全球变暖加剧,中国冰川普遍发生了退缩,对局地人民生活、生存环境及社会经济产生了深刻的影响,对位于西北干旱区的博格达峰地区尤为突出。本文首先采用趋势分析、突变检验和小波变换等方法对研究区周边气温、降水进行研究,同时应用Landsat 1-4、5、7MSS、TM/ETM+影像分析1972-2013年博格达峰区冰川变化特征,在此基础上系统探讨冰川变化与该区气候变化之间的响应关系。结果表明：①1960-2013年研究区气温、降水变化倾向分别为0.19oC/10 a和12.4 mm/10 a;年平均气温在1990年前后存在显著突变,年降水量在1985年前后存在突变。气温主要表现为8~10 a的周期,降水周期性较差。目前处于气温偏高、降水偏少期;②1972-2013年冰川面积减少46.71 ± 1.32 km2,年均退缩率为0.66% ± 0.02%,冰川退缩趋势明显。其中1972-1990年,冰川年均退缩率为0.44% ± 0.03%;近20年来冰川退缩加剧,年均退缩率达到0.78% ± 0.09%;③通过分形理论对研究区冰川空间结构特征分析表明,预计未来冰川消融率将趋于稳定,但仍处于较高状态;④对比中国西部各地区冰川的变化,发现该地区冰川退缩和其他区域退缩速率相吻合;⑤1990年之前博格达峰地区冰川变化受温度和降水共同控制,1990年之后冰川退缩主要由气温上升引起。

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming in recent decades, glaciers on Earth have been rapidly melting. Mountain glaciers in China have also changed dramatically. The changes in mountain glaciers have impacts on water resources in the northwestern arid area of China, and therefore monitoring change of mountain glaciers is very important. The glacier meltwater in the Bogda Peak region is a reliable source of water for the Aries River Basin, the Turpan-Hami Basins, and Basin Chaiwopu, and the scientific value of such research is also significant. This article summarizes the status of research on this subject. Based on the 1972 Landsat MSS, 1990 Landsat TM, 1999 Landsat TM, and 2013 Landsat ETM+ remote sensing data, glacier information of four time periods in the study area were extracted by using visual interpretation combined with digital processing of satellite images and analysis in GIS. The climate data in the surrounding area were analyzed using linear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. The relationship between glacier retreating and climate warming was also analyzed in this study. The main results show that: (1) The annual mean temperature and precipitation had an increasing trend, with rates of 0.19℃·10a-1 and 12.4mm·10a-1; annual temperature increased since 1990, while annual precipitation increased since 1985. Morlet wavelets of annual temperature mainly had a 8 to 10 year cycle, while annual precipitation cycle was not clear. The warming trend was clear in this region, but rainfall has shown little change. (2) During 1972-2013, glacier area of the study region decreased by 46.71±1.32 km2, accounting for 23.87 ± 0.67% of the total. The average annual withdrawal rate was 0.66 ± 0.02%·a-1. Glacier retreat rate was low in 1972-1990, at 0.44 ± 0.03%·a-1. But this rate has increased in the last 20 years, to 0.78 ±0.09 %·a-1. The retreat rates of Sigonghe No.4 glacier and Black Trench No.8 glacier have accelerated in recent years. (3) Characteristics of the spatial structure of the glaciers were analyzed based on the fractal theory and the research predicts that the ablation rate of glaciers in the study area will remain high. (4) Compared with glacier retreat in other regions of China, glaciers in the Bogda area show a similar trend of change. (5) Prior to 1990, the important meteorological factors that influenced the change of Bogda region glaciers were temperature and precipitation, but temperature has played a more important role in affecting glacier retreat after 1990.

• F293. 35